Big Ten Football: Bowl Projections for Every Team
With just a few weeks remaining before the end of the season, college football teams around the nation are busy putting the finishing touches on their 2014 resumes. From teams struggling to reach that all-important six-win threshold to College Football Playoff hopefuls, the Big Ten is full of would-be bowl teams trying to extend the season and capture some glory.
The Big Ten, with eight bowl tie-ins, will have plenty of opportunities to chase down that glory, considering seven conference teams have already won at least six games. But where, exactly, each team will play has yet to be etched in stone.
As fans, we're looking for possible late-December or early-January destinations, and most of us have already started to make predictions about where our favorite teams will be spending the holidays. In that spirit, we're serving up a fresh batch of Big Ten bowl game projections.
Bowl Tie-ins for 2014-15
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If you thought the BCS system threw a wrench into the bowl tie-in system, you're going to get a kick out of the College Football Playoff.
Instead of worrying about a conference champion and, every now and again, a second team from a given conference earning a BCS berth, there is no longer any limit to the number of teams from any given conference when it comes to what is being called the "New Year's Six" bowls (Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach).
Beyond those six games, the Big Ten has tie-ins with nine other bowl committees representing eight bowl games each season (as the TaxSlayer and Music City bowls will alternate between Big Ten and ACC selections, with the Music City Bowl selecting a Big Ten team in 2014). Those committees will select bowl-eligible teams from the Big Ten in the following order for the 2014-15 bowl season:
1. Citrus Bowl (vs. SEC)
2. Outback Bowl (vs. SEC)
3. Holiday Bowl (vs. Pac-12)
4. Music City Bowl (vs. SEC)
6. San Francisco Bowl (vs. Pac-12)
7. Pinstripe Bowl (vs. ACC)
8. Quick Lane Bowl (vs. ACC)
9. Heart of Dallas Bowl (vs. Conference USA)
The Cactus Bowl also lists the Big Ten.
Note: Name changes this year include the Capital One Bowl reverting to Citrus Bowl, the Chick-fil-A Bowl changing back to the Peach Bowl and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl becoming the San Francisco Bowl (until a title sponsor can be found).
Unlikely to Make a Bowl
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Purdue Boilermakers
At 3-6 already, the Boilermakers would need to win out to even have a shot at making a bowl game this season. With Wisconsin coming up this Saturday, it's highly likely Purdue will officially be out of the running by the final whistle of that game.
Darrell Hazell and company are making some small gains with the program, but Purdue clearly isn't bowl-worthy yet.
Indiana Hoosiers
Despite an impressive win against current SEC East Division-leading Missouri (go ahead and start laughing at that "SEC speed"), Indiana's only other win against FBS competition came against North Texas. The Hoosiers need three wins over their final four games. The schedule includes Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Purdue.
There are three games there we might have once called "winnable," but after being beaten by a very bad Michigan team on Saturday, we're no longer confident the Hoosiers can win more than one more game in 2014.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats (3-5) have four games remaining (one of which is against Notre Dame). Unfortunately, with so many Big Ten teams likely reaching six or seven wins this season, someone will get left out, even with six wins. We think that team could be Northwestern (assuming, of course, the Wildcats can beat Michigan, Purdue and Illinois).
Illinois Fighting Illini
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Tim Beckman started the 2014 season with his backside squarely on the hot seat. If the 4-5 Illini miss another bowl game, you can be sure that the heat will get turned up to such a degree that Beckman may be forced to get up and leave Champaign.
The Illini need two more wins in their three remaining games, but that's not completely out of the realm of possibility. Illinois is off this week, but hosts Iowa on November 15 before Penn State comes calling on November 22. Illinois finishes up the season on the road at in-state rival Northwestern.
If Illinois can find a way to win two of those three games—if—then the Illini will be back in a bowl game for the first time since the 2011 season. Whether or not it will be enough to save Beckman's job, however, is another matter entirely.
With the Big Ten's tie-ins likely already filled by this point, Illinois will be left searching for a bowl home. Luckily, with Marshall likely headed towards a "New Year's Six" bowl, Conference USA will have a few spare bowl spots lying around. It may not be what Illini fans were looking for, but a trip to Florida in December to take on a MAC team is better than no bowl trip at all.
Projection: Boca Raton Bowl
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Penn State Nittany Lions
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Penn State, at 4-4, needs just two of its final four games to earn that long-awaited return to bowl eligibility.
Luckily for Penn State fans, there are three very winnable games ahead for the Nittany Lions, as Penn State travels to Indiana before hosting Temple in a rare November meeting with a team from outside the Big Ten.
Penn State finishes with a trip to Illinois and a visit from top ten and conference title hopeful Michigan State.
Even if Penn State manages just two more wins this season, the Nittany Lions carry enough weight (and fan support) to earn a bowl invite. And we're confident James Franklin can get his team to a bowl in his first season as head coach.
Projection: Heart of Dallas Bowl
Michigan Wolverines
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Oh Michigan, whatever are we going to do with you?
With three games remaining and a 4-5 record, the Wolverines are faced with a win-or-stay-home proposition over the next two games. The Wolverines will travel to Evanston on Saturday to face Northwestern—also in its own desperate bid to make a bowl—before hosting Maryland on November 22. The Wolverines will need to win both of those games to earn a bowl berth this season.
What about the game against Ohio State on November 29? Okay, sure. You can root for the Maize and Blue in Columbus if you'd like, but have you seen Michigan play this season? What about Michigan's previous nine games leads you to believe Michigan has anything more than a prayer against the Buckeyes this year?
Sure, it's a rivalry game and anything can happen. But with so much drama surrounding Michigan's mind-numbing implosion this season (combined with the way Ohio folk tend to spend the 364 days leading up to the game obsessing over it), we just aren't giving Michigan much of a shot in "the game."
That being said, a 6-6 Michigan team, with its legions of fans and national television appeal, is a lock to receive an invitation in December. Ordinarily, Michigan would be a big enough draw in terms of ticket sales and television viewership that we'd bump up their projection a slot or two higher than the actual finish. But with the well-documented struggled of 2014—not to mention student attendance issues that led to a price reduction—we're guessing Michigan isn't quite the great pick it was just a few short seasons ago.
Luckily for everyone, there's a new bowl just up I-94 in Detroit to replace the now-defunct Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. If there's one place we know Michigan fans would still pack to the rafters, it's Ford Field.
Projection: Quick Lane Bowl
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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Rutgers hasn't quite reached bowl eligibility yet, but at 5-4, and with games against Maryland and Indiana still on the schedule, we're betting the Scarlet Knights will be bowling this holiday season. Rutgers fans were probably hoping for a bit better than a 1-4 start to their team's Big Ten era, but a middling first outing in the new conference might just work in Rutgers' favor.
How? We're glad you asked. Kyle Flood has never been shy about recruiting the "State of Rutgers," and if the Scarlet Knights can get to that magic number of six wins this season—which we're projecting they will—there will be one heckuva recruiting event in store for Flood and company.
Finishing at 6-6, Rutgers will be one of the bottom few Big Ten programs on the list for bowl committees. Well, guess who has one of the last few picks among Big Ten bowl teams? None other than the Pinstripe Bowl, just up the road from Piscataway in New York.
What could be better for Flood and all of those "State of Rutgers" recruits he hopes to land than a bowl game in Rutgers' proverbial backyard? We're also projecting the Pinstripe Bowl for Rutgers because of the obvious benefits it would provide the bowl in terms of attendance and local excitement.
Let's face it: snagging the eighth- or ninth-best Big Ten team for an outdoor football game in NYC in December is a tough gig if you're in ticket sales. Having a local team play in the bowl makes the job of selling those tickets just a bit easier.
And with an ACC opponent, this year's Pinstripe Bowl will have a decidedly Atlantic feel to it.
Projection: Pinstripe Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes
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Iowa is so close, yet, after losing to Maryland back on October 18, so far away. With a back-loaded schedule, Iowa's 3-1 conference record is a little deceiving. The Hawkeyes' wins have come against Purdue, Indiana and Northwestern. Iowa also has a loss outside of conference play to Iowa State.
So what do we think Iowa's chances are for a West Division crown this season? To be blunt, we don't think they're very good.
Iowa is only among the conference's top four teams in one major team statistical category (fourth in passing defense), and the Hawkeyes will face teams ranked above them in at least one statistical category in three of their final four games.
Yes, Iowa does control its fate in the Big Ten, but we're projecting that Kirk Ferentz's team will be unmasked in November as a pretender to the West Division crown.
Projection: Music City Bowl
Maryland Terrapins
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The Terrapins haven't been too shabby in their first Big Ten season. In fact, with wins over Iowa and Penn State, Maryland has been pleasantly surprising at 3-2 in conference play (and 6-3 overall).
Maryland has yet to face Michigan State, Michigan or Rutgers in the East, but with the weaponry the Terps have at their disposal, there's the distinct possibility for two more wins before all is said and done.
It's difficult to know exactly how bowl committees, familiar with the "traditional" Big Ten teams, will view a new-comer like Maryland, but our guess is that the Terps will find the Big Ten tied-in bowls waiting to welcome them with open arms.
At 7-5, or even 8-4, and with one of the top five scoring offenses in the conference, Maryland will find a comfortable bowl destination after its first season in the Big Ten—even if it is on the opposite side of the country.
Projection: San Francisco Bowl
Minnesota Golden Gophers
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Jerry Kill has really been building the Minnesota program back into something in which Golden Gophers fans can take pride. Minnesota is off to a 6-2 (3-1 in the Big Ten) start, and the Gophers are again chasing down a potential January bowl berth.
This time around, the Gophers look to be in a much better position to do just that. Minnesota will finish off the 2014 regular season with games against Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin. The math is pretty simple: win those four games, and Minnesota wins the West. But unlike Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska, the added hiccup of Ohio State in November could complicate matters.
To be frank, we expect Minnesota to lose at least one more game to a division foe in addition to a loss to Ohio State. That drops the Gophers to 8-4, at best.
Still, there's plenty of forward momentum, especially for a program that's now finding itself more towards the middle of statistical categories than the bottom—and that's all with a worst-in-the-conference passing offense.
Projection: Holiday Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers
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There are two things that really keep us from getting too terribly excited about the Badgers this season: LSU and Northwestern. Especially Northwestern.
Wisconsin still, however, controls its own destiny in the West, and knocking off Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota over the last three weeks of the season would all but guarantee the Badgers a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.
But that's a lot to assume. With such a grueling schedule ahead, we're expecting at least one more loss from Wisconsin before all is said and done.
Don't worry, Badgers fans, for all is not lost. Even with an added loss, Wisconsin will still be rewarded with a nice New Year's Day bowl trip to sunny Tampa to face off against the SEC in the Outback Bowl.
Projection: Outback Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers
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It's been a while since anyone really gave Nebraska any serious consideration when it came to the College Football Playoff. Having a team like Michigan State on the schedule for the first week in October—and losing—is a good way to take yourself out of the conversation.
But here we are in November and, wouldn't you know it, the Cornhuskers are hanging around with a West Division-leading 8-1 record. On top of that, Nebraska also has plenty of opportunities to make an impression on pollsters, with Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa all remaining on the schedule.
Essentially, we'll have a round-robin tournament of the top four West Division teams to determine who will make the trip to Indianapolis for the conference championship game.
With one of the 12 "New Year's Six" bowl slots going to the top-ranked conference champion from the "Group of Five" (non-"Power Five" conferences), Nebraska will essentially need to finish in the top 11 to earn a slot this season. Though knocking off their remaining opponents will look good, we just don't see the Huskers making the leap without a conference title and 12-1 record.
Projection: Citrus Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes
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Remember back to just before the season when Ohio State's Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller was lost for the entire season due to injury? Remember how we all thought Ohio State's Big Ten title chances were shot?
J.T. Barrett does. And he also remembers the subsequent eight games he started as Ohio State's quarterback, leading the team to a 7-1 record entering what is for all intents and purposes the East Division title game at Michigan State this Saturday.
A lot can happen at Spartan Stadium on Saturday evening, but Michigan State has emerged as an early betting favorite (according to Odds Shark) for a reason. Ohio State will have every opportunity to beat the Spartans and prove that it's the Buckeyes who should be getting all of the attention in the Big Ten, but until that actually happens, we're still projecting MSU as the winners—not only on Saturday night, but of the division and conference titles as well.
Still, Ohio State is an elite program with a national fan base and huge draw. Where the Buckeyes end up will largely be determined by factors outside of Ohio State's control.
Does Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff? How many SEC teams will earn spots in the "New Year's Six" bowls? Is a potential Big Ten champion in Michigan State left out of the College Football Playoffs?
The selection process gets pretty murky, but suffice it to say that we're projecting (or is it hoping?) that the College Football Playoff selection committee finds some common sense and spreads the wealth around to deserving teams from across the nation, not just south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
The Orange Bowl is the top non-playoff bowl for the Big Ten this season, and that's looking like a nice, solid, lucrative destination for the Buckeyes, where Ohio State will meet either Notre Dame or the top non-playoff SEC program.
Projection: Orange Bowl
Michigan State Spartans
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We'll know a bit more about Michigan State's bowl outlook after Saturday. The marquee clash in East Lansing between the Spartans and the Buckeyes will answer plenty of questions (and you can bet the College Football Playoff committee will be keeping a close eye on the game).
But for right now, we're going to assume the No. 6 Spartans live up to their billing as narrow favorites against the Buckeyes, according to Odds Shark.
If and when MSU gets by Ohio State, no one will expect Maryland, Rutgers or Penn State to put up much more than token resistance as the Spartans march towards Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game. From there, the sky's the limit, as we're projecting a 12-1 Michigan State team to earn one of the four coveted spots in the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Projection: College Football Playoff Semifinal (Rose Bowl Game)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
