Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux: Head-to-Toe Breakdown

On the heels of damaging losses, Top 15 light heavyweights Mauricio Rua and Ovince Saint Preux will look to get back into the win column against one another on Saturday.

In March, Shogun met Dan Henderson in a rematch. Despite knocking Henderson down multiple times, Rua ultimately wound up on the losing end. As the Brazilian broke a clinch in the third round, he was cracked with a right hand and could not recover quickly enough to keep the bout going.

Carrying five straight wins into an August matchup with Ryan Bader, Saint Preux had an opportunity to become a serious contender at 205 pounds. Instead, he succumbed to Bader's wrestling, allowing nine takedowns en route to a decision loss.

As this pivotal bout between Rua and Saint Preux approaches, here is a look at how the noteworthy light heavyweights match up in all areas. 

Striking

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Although his lone knockout loss came in September 2009, Saint Preux could be in trouble should he have to stand with Rua over five rounds.

Shogun has traded with the best and has only suffered a few knockout losses in his illustrious career. The Brazilian also has the ability to capitalize on Saint Preux's biggest stand-up weaknesses.

When Saint Preux attacks, he tends to swing wildly and lean heavily on his lead leg. Rua should be able to chop that lead leg with kicks and counter when Saint Preux rushes forward. When James Te Huna threw a looping punch at Rua, he paid with his consciousness. Shogun nearly caught Henderson with the same left hook in his most recent outing.

He does have a reach advantage, but Saint Preux lacks the skill to use that to his advantage against a former UFC champion. 

Edge: Rua

Wrestling

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Despite his long career in MMA, Rua has failed to improve much in the wrestling department. 

The Brazilian's takedown defense continues to be a regular problem. Prior to his win over Te Huna, Rua surrendered eight takedowns over four rounds in consecutive bouts with Alexander Gustafsson and Chael Sonnen. Shogun's poor wrestling in those matchups put him in a hole that he remains stuck in.

Following his showing against Bader, it's tough to give Saint Preux an advantage over anybody when it comes to wrestling. However, OSP has the size and athleticism to muscle around non-wrestlers like Rua.

Wrestling could turn out to be a big portion of Saint Preux's game plan on Saturday.

Edge: Saint Preux

Grappling

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Rua's grappling has generally been respected, but he still has more submission losses than wins. Also, lately, more holes in Shogun's submission defense appear to be opening than closing.

In a bout with Brandon Vera, Rua left his neck open and nearly got caught in a guillotine choke. Two appearances later, Shogun suffered a submission loss via guillotine choke opposite Sonnen.

Saint Preux hasn't submitted an opponent at Rua's level. However, he looked excellent on top against Nikita Krylov and Ryan Jimmo. At worst, Saint Preux should be able to control Rua on the ground and possibly steal a couple rounds. 

Edge: Saint Preux

Intangibles

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While he's only one year older than Saint Preux, Rua has much more experience against high-level competition.

Beginning his MMA career in November 2002, Rua has nine more bouts than Saint Preux. He's also fought the best in the world on a regular basis since the beginning of his Pride FC days.

Opposite Ryan Bader and Gegard Mousasi, Saint Preux has had a couple of big fights. However, he failed to pick up a win in either, showing that he might not have what it takes to become a truly elite 205-pounder.

Conditioning could be a concern for Rua against an opponent who will be willing to use his size, but Shogun's experience in big fights should play a much larger role in this matchup. 

Edge: Rua

Prediction

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With the right game plan, OSP could come out and shut Rua down over five rounds.

However, with multiple knockdowns against an iron-chinned Henderson, Rua only needs to land one punch to put an adversary away. When that adversary throws looping punches like Te Huna did and Saint Preux has tended to do, Rua is often a good bet to come away with the victory.

It may take a round or two for Rua to find an opening and connect, but he's going to have multiple opportunities to start standing because he's been so hard to finish. Eventually, Shogun is going to land a counterhook that will put Saint Preux on the canvas.

Prediction

Rua defeats Saint Preux via TKO in the second round.