Bowl Predictions: Updated Playoff Projections Heading into Week 11
Surprise, surprise—college football fans were treated to another incredible slate of games in Week 10 that impacted the postseason picture.
The College Football Playoff looms over seemingly every single game that features a top-notch contender, which makes the season feel like a nonstop postseason. The intensity and sense of desperation when Auburn and Ole Miss came down to the final minutes on Saturday was palpable through even a television screen as both SEC teams tried to fight off essential elimination from the postseason picture.
Elsewhere, Mississippi State survived a scare from an Arkansas team that has yet to win a conference game since 2012, TCU overcame a multi-score deficit in the fourth quarter and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired against West Virginia, Notre Dame escaped a dangerous Navy team at the end and the Pac-12 delivered its usual thrilling late-night finishes.
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Arizona State stunned Utah in overtime, while UCLA handed Arizona its second loss of the season. The Arizona schools are probably not fond of the Bruins, considering they knocked off both the Sun Devils and Wildcats this year.
The biggest upset of Week 10 was Florida’s victory over Georgia.
The Gators controlled the line of scrimmage and dashed the Bulldogs defense for 418 rushing yards. That was Georgia’s second loss, and it still has to play Auburn and potentially an SEC Championship Game against a daunting opponent from the West Division. That may have spelled the end of the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes.
Here is what the updated playoff projections look like as we head into Week 11 of the season.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal Winners)
Breakdown
First things first—if a presumed playoff contender is not on this list, the assumption is that it will pick up another loss before the end of the season.
That means teams like Oregon, Arizona State, the Big 12 contenders, Notre Dame and Auburn will all fall between now and the announcement of the initial playoff field.
Those Big 12 teams, like Kansas State, TCU and Baylor, will cannibalize each other (Oklahoma may help with Baylor), the Ducks could trip up against Utah or in the Pac-12 title game, the Sun Devils and Fighting Irish play each other, USC (Notre Dame) and Arizona (Arizona State) and the Tigers play at Georgia and at Alabama.
That is a lot of potential losses.
As for a team that will reach the postseason, Florida State simply continues to find ways to win games.
It looked like the Seminoles’ undefeated dreams were over when they trailed 21-0 to Louisville, but defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston led his team back in impressive fashion. Florida State’s difficult games are behind it (at Louisville, Oklahoma State, Clemson and Notre Dame) as well, and fans are in store for another undefeated season.
The Seminoles are simply more talented than Virginia, Miami, Florida and Boston College and should win out.
Bottom line, the defending national champions without a loss are going to crack the field of four.
Michigan State will also reach the playoffs, but it needs to show the selection committee a bit more against top-notch competition. It has been mixed results thus far with a loss to Oregon and a win against Nebraska, so look for the Spartans to seize their opportunity in Week 11 against Ohio State.
Quarterback Connor Cook seemed to understand the importance of this upcoming game when he discussed the fanbase of his opponent, via Mike Griffith of MLive.com:
"I think they are pretty crazy actually, pretty outrageous. I remember before the (Big Ten championship) game, there was some crazy old man screaming something at me that I probably shouldn't say right now.
But I just know they are extreme. They're not like arrogant or anything. Ohio State fans, their energy level, if there's one word I could use, it would be extreme, really.
"
While the Buckeyes will pose a challenge, the Spartans are at home and will throw a stout defense at redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett. That will be enough to secure a win and set Michigan State up for an 11-1 regular-season record with games against Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State after that.
A potential conference-title matchup with Nebraska could help the strength of schedule right before the final playoff decision as well.
Then there is arguably the biggest constant in college football—Alabama.
The Crimson Tide seem to have hit their stride with three straight wins following the loss to Ole Miss, which will be critical with contests against LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn remaining. The good news for Nick Saban’s bunch is that the games against Auburn and Mississippi State are at home.
Alabama will win the remaining games on its schedule, which would give it victories over Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU, West Virginia and whoever the opponent is in the SEC Championship Game. That resume will not be left on the outside looking in for the playoffs, even with a single loss to Ole Miss.
That leaves Mississippi State.
The top team in the initial playoff rankings has looked anything but dominant against some of the lesser teams in the SEC the past two weeks (Kentucky and Arkansas), but there are two different ways of looking at that.
Andrea Adelson of ESPN seemed to think the Bulldogs were fortunate, but this stat from ESPN Stats & Info gives the Bulldogs credit for either blowing teams out or keeping games close enough to win at the end:
All that truly matters at this point of the season is coming away with a win, especially in the daunting SEC West.
Mississippi State will manage to do just that in three of its remaining four games (UT Martin, Vanderbilt and a suddenly reeling Ole Miss squad) but will lose at Alabama. While that would leave the Bulldogs out of the SEC title game in this scenario, they would still have wins over LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss.
That will get them into the College Football Playoff field.
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