Bowl Predictions 2014: Projecting Matchups in Season's Biggest Postseason Games
Jameis Winston and the Florida State Seminoles passed their last significant regular-season test with a 42-31 win over the Louisville Cardinals on Thursday.
The Seminoles haven't looked great in any of their marquee matchups, but the bottom line is they are still undefeated. Their last three opponents have a combined record of 13-9 (Miami, FL, Boston College and Florida). Needless to say, these are all opponents the Noles should beat.
In the ACC title game, Florida State figures to take on the No. 24 Duke Blue Devils, barring a major upset. Duke has really established itself as a serious threat in the ACC, but it would be a surprise if it beat the Noles in the ACC finale.
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Based on the schedule, Florida State has the smoothest path to the College Football Playoff. Because most of the other contenders—especially those in the SEC—figure to beat up on each other in the last four weeks of the regular season, and in conference championships, the Noles look like a good bet to grab the top seed in the CFP.
| Bowl | Matchup | Prediction |
| Championship Bowl | Semifinal winners | Mississippi State over Florida State |
| Sugar Bowl | Semifinal | Florida State vs. Michigan State |
| Rose Bowl | Semifinal | Mississippi State vs. Oregon |
| Bowl | Matchup | Prediction |
| Cotton Bowl | At-Large vs. At-Large | Notre Dame vs. Alabama |
| Orange Bowl | ACC vs SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Clemson vs. Ole Miss |
| Fiesta Bowl | At-Large vs At-Large | Georgia vs. TCU |
| Peach Bowl | At-Large vs. At-Large | Auburn vs. Ohio State |
Repping the Big Ten
Another team with a pretty bump-less road to the CFP is the Michigan State Spartans. They have pretty much cleaned out their section of the Big Ten. The only major task left on the schedule for the Spartans comes up on Nov. 8 at home against the No. 16 Ohio State Buckeyes.
The winner of that game would become the Big Ten conference's best hope of having a representative in the CFP. That's assuming the Buckeyes beat the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday as expected.
The winner of the Spartans-Buckeyes clash is on pace to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the conference championship, but the Spartans have already won that head-to-head battle.
The Spartans are awfully tough to beat at home. They haven't lost in East Lansing since 2012. Because of the home-field advantage, they get the edge over Ohio State on Nov. 8.
Quite honestly, the Spartans and Buckeyes would likely be the underdogs against just about any team they matched up with in the CFP, but anything can happen after kickoff.
The Oregon Ducks Will Rise
The Stanford Cardinal has been the bane of the Ducks' existence over the last two years. This year, the Ducks should come in confident and ready to get the Cardinal monkey off their back.
Stanford isn't ranked and at 5-3 and 3-2 in the Pac-12, this isn't the same type of team the Ducks have fallen to the last two years.
Oregon won't be out of the woods with a win over Stanford. Heisman Trophy front-runner Marcus Mariota will still have to lead his team past No. 17 Utah on the road and to a Pac-12 championship against a tough team from the conference's south division.
That could mean a rematch with the only team to beat them this season, the No. 12 Arizona Wildcats.
Even with those tough tests in front of them, Oregon finally has the leader in Mariota who is capable of helping the team avoid the disastrous, season-ruining loss.
The Ducks won't lose again before the CFP.
Mississippi State Will Make It in with One Loss
The schedule ahead of the Mississippi State Bulldogs is beyond brutal. Luckily for them, almost every other SEC team in contention has the same issue.
It's the product of a stacked SEC West division filled with legitimate national championship contenders.
The Bulldogs still have to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ole Miss Rebels in the season finale. Running the table would be awesome for the Bulldogs and it would make all of this easier to figure out, but it just doesn't seem likely.
Alabama is playing great over the last three weeks, and that's the team I see knocking off Mississippi State. I do, however, believe the Bulldogs will win the Battle of Mississippi. Assuming the Bulldogs avoid upsets from the likes of UT Martin and Vanderbilt, that would put them at 6-1 in the SEC.
Alabama still has the Auburn Tigers and LSU Tigers to contend with. It seems too much to ask for the Tide to go undefeated the rest of the way. Long story short, my prediction is for Alabama and Ole Miss to finish with two losses in the conference, and that would elevate the Bulldogs to the SEC title game.
Beating Georgia—their logical opponent—in the conference championship is no given, but Mississippi State's run defense, which is ranked 23rd in the nation, and its diverse offense led by Dak Prescott brings enough to the table to emerge from the SEC as champions.
That'll be good for the No. 2 seed in the CFP.
The Bulldogs Win It All
Many have asked, if Florida State were in the SEC, would it still be undefeated? The answer is probably no. We're going to see proof of that in the national championship game when the Bulldogs bring a defense superior to any Florida State has faced in the last two years.
The Seminoles deserve credit for showing enough toughness to battle through distractions and a slew of teams bent on ending their soon-to-be 27-game win streak, but they will not beat Mississippi State.
Winston has been a turnover machine this season with nine picks. He and his teammates have overcome the problems most of the year, but the SEC is unforgiving. The Noles will find that out soon enough.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
