Serious Injuries Derail but Don't Have to Destroy NBA Rookie Dreams
Injuries stink.
It was pretty sickening to watch Julius Randle go down with a broken leg in his first NBA game. The timing—just downright brutal.
With an estimated recovery timetable of up to six months, it looks like Randle's rookie year will have lasted all of 14 minutes.
This isn't about the Los Angeles Lakers and how it hurts their playoff chances, which were never any good in the first place.
This is about how this injury might affect Randle's development as a prospect.
Rookie seasons are meant for learning. I like to think a prospect uses his first year just to get a feel for the size and speed of the game. It's a year to experiment with a little trial and error to find out what works versus what doesn't against NBA-caliber athletes and defenses.
Adjustments and improvements are typically made in season No. 2, when the game slows down. After two seasons, that's when you expect most rookies to really take off.
Randle's injury is going to delay that process. And it might even extend it once he's fully recovered. Assuming the Lakers have a much more competitive roster in 2015-16, Randle probably isn't going to return to a 25-minute role.
It seems fairly safe to say that when he does get back on the floor, it might be a while before we see the same Randle who dominated up front for Kentucky.
A number of guys from the 2013 draft class started their careers off with injuries—and all of them looked out of sorts upon their returns.
Otto Porter, the No. 3 pick who, like Randle, was considered an "NBA-ready" prospect, missed the first 18 games of his rookie year. He never caught up after that, as he struggled to find a rhythm and his sweet spots on the floor.
Alex Len, who went No. 5, played just 10 total minutes from November 3 to January 7 last year. And he looked completely behind the eight ball after getting back out there.
Both Shane Larkin and C.J. McCollum missed the first chunk of their rookie years, and quite frankly, neither looked too good after returning to action.
An injury can certainly help derail a rookie's career—but that doesn't mean it has to damage it.
Blake Griffin missed his entire first NBA season after fracturing his kneecap. He then went on to win Rookie of the Year and evolved into a superstar talent.
Nerlens Noel sat out his entire first season as well after tearing his ACL. And though the jury is still out on his outlook, he appeared to fit in quite nicely this preseason, while OddsShark.com even listed him as the third-most likely to win 2014-15 Rookie of the Year.
He's not the same caliber player, but Nick Collison also missed his rookie season with shoulder injuries. Since then, he's been a machine, having played in at least 71 games in eight of his next 10 seasons (played in 63 of 66 games during 2012 lockout).
Coincidentally, ex-Laker James Worthy suffered a similar injury his rookie year as the one Randle recently suffered. Worthy ultimately played in 82 games the next season and averaged 14.5 points per contest.
Though they at least got in their fair share of games, Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal each missed significant time as rookies too (back stress fracture for Drummond, wrist injury for Beal). Only the time off didn't stop them from emerging as two of the game's brightest stars one year later.
With regard to Randle's specific injury, the only major downside appears to be the lengthy recovery timetable. Bleacher Report's injury expert, Will Carroll, notes that Randle should be good to go without restrictions once that timetable is complete.
"Assuming the healing time is normal, that there is no involvement of cartilage or other soft tissue and that the foot is not a complicating factor, there is no reason to believe that Julius Randle will have any difficulty returning to his normal level. The injury is painful and disappointing, but there's no impact beyond the immediate.
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Randle isn't the only one from the 2014 draft class expected to sit out the year. Joel Embiid, last June's No. 3 pick, underwent major foot surgery over the summer and is also likely to spend the upcoming season watching from the shelf.
A significant injury early in one's career can be just as mentally draining as it is physically exhausting. Embiid's teammate Noel, who knows a little something about rehab and waiting, shared some advice, via Steve McPherson of Rolling Stone:
"I tell him to stay poised and focused. That it's going to be a frustrating process and make sure that you're always getting your rehab done and make sure you're learning. This is the only time you'll be in this position—hopefully. He really has to take as much as he can from the NBA and Coach Brown and the lifestyle of the pro.
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There's no real way to sugarcoat it—missing your rookie season is bad for business. It means one less year to make a case for contract No. 2 while potentially increasing the level of difficulty or timetable length attached to hitting your NBA stride.
But it shouldn't mean goodbye to NBA dreams and aspirations. If you pegged Randle as a stud before the injury, there isn't any reason to backtrack on your projection.
An injury like the one Randle suffered doesn't have to destroy a rookie's outlook. It just calls for a detour that requires a different route of travel into the league—and a whole lot of patience.
