Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds, Analysis, College Football Pick

Oregon is once again favored for its big Pac-12 North battle with Stanford, but that doesn't mean anything to the Cardinal, who have upset the Ducks each of the past two seasons on their way to back-to-back conference championships. Stanford will shoot for a third straight upset of Oregon Saturday night in Eugene.

Point spread: Ducks opened as 12.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 53.5-43.2 Ducks

Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

The Cardinal just bounced back from that bad loss at Arizona State two weeks ago to pound Oregon State last week 38-14, easily covering the spread as 12-point favorites. Stanford doubled up the Beavers in total offense, 438-221, and with help from six sacks, it held OSU to just 12 yards rushing.

The Cardinal are struggling on offense, ranking 84th in the country overall, 93rd in rushing, but the defense ranks second overall, fifth against the run, allowing just 91 yards per game, and second in points allowed at 13 per game. Last year, as a 10-point home dog, Stanford built a 26-0 lead over the Ducks, then held on for the 26-20 victory.

Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

The Ducks are not quite the well-oiled machine they've been in recent seasons, but they're still in the running for the conference title and a spot in this year's College Football Playoff. Oregon just put up 59 in a victory at Cal, covering the spread as a 17-point road favorite. The Ducks gave up 28 points in the first half against the Bears, then held them to 13 while pulling away in the second half.

So since getting upset at home by Arizona a month ago, Oregon is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread, including that blowout victory at UCLA.

Smart pick

The Ducks probably have the better team in this matchup, but the Cardinal have had their number as of late, holding Oregon to a total of 34 points over the last two meetings in this series—and the Ducks often score that many points in less than a half.

Also, Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games, in part because the spreads have been so high. And that might be the case for this game, too, so the smart money should go on underdog Stanford.

Betting Trends

• Stanford is 2-4 ATS in its last six games when playing on the road against Oregon.
• Oregon is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Stanford.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds-tracker app.