College Football Playoff 2014: Predicting Inaugural Bracket Participants
With the College Football Playoff selection committee set to reveal its first batch of rankings for the inaugural postseason affair that seems increasingly small as each week of the season progresses, it is time to take another look at some predictions.
Not that anything has been easy to predict this year. Four teams are certainly not enough for the CFP, as the difference between the No. 4 team in the land and the No. 12 team is really just a matter of preference at this point.
Mississippi State is a good example of this, as the Bulldogs were an afterthought in the minds of most before the season. Now? Dak Prescott and Co. rule the SEC.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The CFP poll each week between now and December figures to look at a number of factors, chief among them strength of schedule and head-to-head outcomes. Using that as a baseline, a final four can be formed.
College Football Playoff Predictions
1. Mississippi State
It certainly does not take long for the naysayers to come out of the woodwork.
After wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn, many have already dismissed the Bulldogs for "struggling" against unranked Kentucky last week by "only" winning by 14 points. Never mind the fact Kentucky is 5-3 and much better than in recent years, right?
As ESPN Stats & Info notes, the Bulldogs are still king in a number of areas, including a few very important ones in regard to the CFP:
Prescott is the reason the Bulldogs have made it to this point.
While some will draw Tim Tebow comparisons thanks to his ability through the air and toughness on the ground, ESPN College Football points out that Prescott is on pace to surpass two other major recent names:
Now, the Bulldogs do have to survive Alabama and Ole Miss, among others, to make the CFP. But given an elite offense and a defense that surrenders just 21.6 points per game, Prescott's team currently looks like a lock.
2. Florida State
Like it or not, the Florida State Seminoles and Jameis Winston are also a lock at this point in time.
The Seminoles survived Oklahoma State to start the season, overcame Clemson in overtime and most recently took down a Top Five team in the form of Notre Dame.
Winston leads an offense that ranks No. 14 overall in terms of passing yards per game, and on the year, he is completing 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,878 yards and 13 touchdowns to six interceptions.
In other words, the Seminoles mostly look like the team that birthed a Heisman winner and title last season.
That said, not everyone is confident the team can run the table, as ESPN College Football reveals:
"ESPN's FPI gives #1 Florida State a 29% chance of winning out. Do they have what it takes? pic.twitter.com/7Eh2X19zcD
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) October 28, 2014"
It makes sense, as Louisville is a tough test, Virginia has a strong defense, Miami and Florida are tough in-state matchups and Boston College has already pulled off an impressive upset this season over USC thanks to a top-15 defense.
Like last year, though, an elite quarterback makes the difference. Until Winston and the Seminoles suffer a setback, the team is an obvious shoo-in for the CFP.
3. Alabama
Perhaps no team that figures to be a serious contender for the CFP has a tougher schedule the rest of the way than the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Nick Saban's team faces three ranked opponents in four games to close out the year, two of which rank fourth or better. A slate that features the aforementioned Bulldogs, LSU and Auburn would scare most teams, but not Alabama as it continues to hit its stride.
"This team is getting better and better," said quarterback Blake Sims, per Edward Aschoff of ESPN.com. "We’re becoming even closer and we just want to play hard for each other. The way our coaches fight for us, we want to play even harder for them."
Quietly, Sims has thrown for seven touchdowns to no interceptions in his last three games. He is flanked by the typically stout Crimson Tide defense, which ranks No. 3 overall with an average of 14.0 points allowed per game.
The Crimson Tide has grown up right in front of the nation's eyes in the past few weeks, with no true end in sight. Running the table is quite a daunting task, but yet again, it is unwise to doubt Saban's team.
4. TCU
The fourth slot is truly a wild guess thanks to the vast number of quality one-loss teams that pepper the collegiate landscape at the moment.
Most would be hard pressed to find a team more deserving than TCU, though.
The Horned Frogs are one ugly quarter against Baylor away from being undefeated and a surefire favorite for the postseason. A loss to a Top Five team is in no way crippling, especially after the team recovered with a blowout win against ranked Oklahoma State and then an indescribable 82-27 win over Texas Tech.
Behind the arms and legs of junior quarterback Trevone Boykin—who has 2,306 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to three interceptions with 374 rushing yards and three scores on the ground—TCU touts the nation's top scoring offense, which averages 50.4 points per game.
Keep in mind that a major part of the equation is the future, though. As College GameDay hints, that is yet another bright spot for the team:
West Virginia and Kansas State will prove tough tests but are surely winnable matchups. Keep in mind that should TCU win out, the team has to be a lock for the CFP with the Big 12 not holding a conference title game.
Perhaps the fourth and final slot is not so difficult to figure out after all.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
