When NBA Bigs Commit to 3-Point Shot, Big Things Can Happen

You hear about it every offseason. [NBA Big Man X] is going to try adding the three-point shot to his arsenal to better round out his offensive game. 

This year, we heard it about Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka and Al Horford, among others. They're all trying to expand their shooting range to include the corner three. 

Given that so many of the NBA's best bigs are endeavoring upon this challenge, it's worth asking the question: when big men try to add a three-point shot to their game, does it actually work?

Since 1999, only 21 players who could be described as "big men"—defined here as playing all or most of their minutes at power forward and/or center—have followed a season in which they played at least 1,000 minutes and attempted 40 or fewer three-point shots (or less than 0.5 per game), with one in which they attempted at least 70 three-point shots.

The list is not exactly a murderer's row of the most talented bigs in league history. While Chris Bosh, Channing Frye and Paul Millsap are members of the club, the list also includes such luminaries as Chris Gatling, Pedrag Drobnjak, Jared Jeffries and Yi Jianlian. 

It's worth nothing that six—Bosh, Millsap, Josh McRoberts, Jared Sullinger, Patrick Patterson and Andrew Nicholson—of the 21 players that have done this, have done so in the last two seasons. So while it hasn't been that prevalent over the years, it is certainly becoming more so of late. 

Here's how the group fared from beyond the arc, on an individual level, in the prior season, the season in which they "added" the three-point shot, and for the rest of their careers.

(Note: the above chart is sortable by Prior Season 3PA, Next Season 3PA, Next Season 3PT percentage, Rest of Career 3PA, and Rest of Career 3PT percentage. "Prior Season" is defined as the year in which the player played at least 1,000 minutes and attempted 40 or fewer threes. "Next Season" is defined as the year in which they attempted 70 or more threes. "Rest of Career" includes the "Next season" and every year after. If the "Next season" was the last of the player's career, or was the 2013-14 season, then the "Next Season 3PA" and "Rest of Career 3PA" will be equal.)

Now, the list is somewhat arbitrary because of the endpoints I've drawn. For example, it doesn't include Zach Randolph, who followed a season in which he shot six threes with one in which he shot 55, and then followed a season where he took 48 threes with one in which he shot 80. But the line had to be drawn somewhere. 

As a whole, the 21-player sample shot 26.7 percent from three in the season before they attempted to add a three-point shot. The next year, that percentage shot all the way up to 35.0 percent, just about league average. If we include only the players who took at least 140 threes in the season they tried to add to their range, that conversion rate rises up to 36.9 percent, an excellent mark that plenty of guards would be jealous of. 

Over the course of the remainder of their careers, the 21 players in the group shot 35.7 percent from beyond the arc, a very respectable number. Only seven of the players wound up attempting 400 threes or more throughout the rest of their career (so far: Bosh, McRoberts, Millsap, Patterson and Sullinger will likely all join them above 400 attempts at some point this season), and that group managed a 37.4 percent clip from deep. 

Here's how that sample group compares to the career three-point percentages of some of the guys who may or may not be adding the three to their arsenal this season. 

So what does this all tell us?

For starters, it tells us that not many of the players who say they'll be adding the three to their game actually follow through on it, at least not in more than a nominal, "I'll take a corner three every four games or so" sense. That's why the sample here is so small. 

It also tells us that those players who do follow through on it by making it a larger part of their repertoire tend to fare better from outside than those who just toy with adding the three to their game. The highest-volume shooters in this crew had far better percentages than the ones who just dabbled. 

And finally it tells us that this trend is mostly a recent development, likely thanks to the rise of analytics that have made many teams and players smarter about shot selection. In a sample that spans 15 seasons, a third of the relevant group has come from the last two years, and that number will likely jump again this year as more bigs attempt to extend their range beyond the arc.