Atlanta Falcons: Division Title Still Possible with Improvement from Key Spots
The Atlanta Falcons can still win the division this season. They aren't as bad as their record indicates. But they will have to have key, strategic improvements throughout the entire team to have a shot at winning the division title.
Atlanta does have a much easier schedule in the second half of the year facing all NFC South teams four times over the final eight crucial games. But games against Green Bay, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Cleveland will also be tough tests for the Falcons, even if three of the four are at home.
The offensive line and Levine Toilolo did show improvement against the Detroit Lions, but poor coaching decisions throughout the team need to be rectified—especially on defense, where the Falcons have a bad tendency to play older, aging veterans through the bulk of most games.
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Facing Opponents That Atlanta Matches Up Better with Will Definitely Help
Atlanta's offense lives and dies by passing the ball. Through the first eight games of the year, they played a ton of talented passing defenses. NumberFire created a metric called Net Expected Points for defensive units and has even adjusted it for passing plays.
Using their metrics, you can see that the Falcons should be able to attack defenses moving forward through the air. They need to focus on protecting Matt Ryan so that the Falcons' talented wide receivers can do their thing through the air.
| Buccaneers | 32nd |
| Panthers | 24th |
| Browns | 16th |
| Cardinals | 19th |
| Packers | 13th |
| Steelers | 25th |
| Saints | 31st |
| Panthers | 24th |
Some of the teams that Atlanta is facing don't have a great pass rush. Teams like Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans all tend to have trouble getting to the passer. But the Falcons need to be able to neutralize Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Arizona and Cleveland's pass-rushing groups to stand a chance.
Should they do that, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas all should be able to attack the middle of the field against these teams while Jones and Devin Hester can take the screens and deep routes to assert the Falcons through their route specializations.
Divisional and Outdoor Games Will Be Crucial
One big thing that would help Atlanta win the division is if they can focus on the divisional tiebreakers. The two most important tiebreakers are head-to-head and games won within the division. As it stands right now, Atlanta has two divisional victories with head-to-head wins against Tampa Bay and New Orleans.
With four more games remaining within the division, Atlanta would have to win at least three of them—if not all four—to win the division this year. If they can somehow match records with New Orleans by the end of the year and have either tiebreaker in their advantage, it'd be a way for the Falcons to get into the playoffs.
Atlanta needs to win the next two weeks against both Tampa Bay and Carolina to get on a role and create some momentum heading into the final six weeks of the season. Both are division games on the road that would help Atlanta create a tiebreaker situation toward the end of the year.
These are also two of the last three games that are outdoors. Right now, the Falcons are 2-1 indoors and 0-5 outside. If they can reverse their outdoor fortunes over the next two weeks, they should be set up nicely for their last six games—five of which are indoors.
Atlanta Isn't as Bad as Its Record Shows
Atlanta isn't a bad team. It's a team that can't play a full game. Through eight weeks, Atlanta has had six winnable situations heading into the fourth quarters of games—five times they led; one time they were down by just a single score.
The unfortunate thing is that the offense was unable to get anything going in those losses or the defense collapsed at the end and the Falcons were able to win just two of those six games. One of those was an overtime win against the Saints at home.
If Atlanta can figure out how to play four full quarters of a game, they would be a much better team. But that involves using the proper personnel rotations, playing the right guys on the offensive line and coaching making proper halftime adjustments.
Atlanta needs to turn things around, but it's small changes here and there that would help them win more games this season. The Falcons have the talent to win games. But they need to show the drive and desire to win close games in the fourth quarter and play hard all four quarters.
Offensive Line Needs to Stick With Its Latest Configuration
Atlanta played extremely well along the offensive line during the first four games of the season up until the big injuries to Joe Hawley, Lamar Holmes and Justin Blalock occurred. Once that happened, the Falcons went from a team that looked like it could be a better version of the 2012 iteration to terrible.
Peter Konz was in over his head as a starter at center, and then he got injured as well. Gabe Carimi was getting beaten by speed when he started at right tackle, and then he hurt his ankle. Those injuries might have been for the best. James Stone has more functional strength than Konz does, while Ryan Schraeder is a better athlete than Carimi.
If Atlanta wants to get its best group out there for the rest of the season, it's going to be one that has first-round pick Jake Matthews, Blalock, Stone, big-time free agent Jon Asamoah and Schraeder as the starting offensive linemen. That would give Atlanta its most athletic line and one that seems to communicate well against stunts.
This arrangement would allow the Falcons to protect Matt Ryan the best out of their current offensive line group. It did a good job of that during the first half of the Lions game. They did have trouble in the second half of the game, but the whole offense fell out of sync.
With a bye week and extra week of practice to get even more on the same page, this line should do even better against the Buccaneers than it did against the Lions. And that will be the biggest key for the Falcons to make a run at the division.
Levine Toilolo Needs to Step Up
Atlanta's biggest hole on offense through the first eight games has been from the tight end position and on those intermediate routes out of the slot. This season, Levine Toilolo and the rest of the slot receivers and tight ends have combined for 46 catches, 497 yards and three touchdowns.
Last season, the combination of Tony Gonzalez with the rest of the group of slot receivers combined for 153 catches, 1,687 yards and 11 touchdowns. That means Atlanta needs to average at least 13 catches, 149 yards and a touchdown in every game from that grouping through the rest of the year.
This additional production would help on third downs and help shorten the distances needed on those third downs. The biggest name that needs to step up is Toilolo. With Harry Douglas injured for most of the season thus far, Toilolo has been dropping the ball both literally and figuratively.
He needs to step up and start turning in performances of at least four to five catches and 40-50 yards every week while getting a touchdown every other week. Atlanta can't continue to have poor play from the tight end position if they want to come back and make a real run at it.
Toilolo needs to improve his blocking, too. Unlike Gonzalez, the second-year man from Stanford has a willingness to block. However, he doesn't have the talent to block and continually gets beat trying to seal the edge. Toilolo's all-around game needs improvement, or the Falcons will look for his replacement this offseason.
Poor Coaching Decisions Need to Be Fixed on Defense
Atlanta's poor defense has rested more on the coaching staff than the actual players. They have guys playing improper roles for their skill sets, and it's hurting the defense. On top of that, they don't seem to understand the simplicity of playing more of the younger guys earlier in games.
But this is something that I've been mentioning for a while now. Atlanta knows how they need to fix their defense. Playing the right guys in the right spots like Jonathan Babineaux as a 3-technique defensive tackle is the right fit.
But Mike Smith has yet to take control and realize that he needs to change everything he does about his conservative coaching approach. Smith coaches on how not to lose. But if he would just change and coach to win, the Falcons would win games.
Conservative play isn't going to win games in today's NFL. Atlanta needs to start blitzing more. They need to start attacking teams with their defensive personnel more. But Atlanta has the talent to stay in games and has the defense hold leads. The Falcons just don't use the common logic needed to win.
There are too many buzzwords thrown around like "Consistency", "Process", "Toughness" and "Explosion" at Smith's press conferences. The only real buzzword that needs to be thrown in there is "Win."
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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