Grading Every Top 25 Team's Performance Through 9 Weeks
This week, the College Football Playoff chase will receive some clarity. The first two months of the season have been couched in speculation and analysis, wondering just what the 12 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee are thinking about the nation’s best teams.
Tuesday night, we’ll get our first concrete look at just how national contenders stack up when the committee’s initial Top 25 poll is released. Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde said this week shook up his projected playoff bracket.
The first Top 25 poll doesn’t spell doom for a team’s season, nor does it crown a team as a sure-fire playoff entrant. But it is an interesting window into where we are as we head down the homestretch of the 2014 season.
That said, it’s an excellent time to take a look at the Top 25 through nine weeks and just where they are. We’ve graded the Top 25, with a consideration on performance to date, won-loss record and how they’ve stacked up against expectations. We're using this week's Associated Press Top 25 as a guide.
25. UCLA
1 of 25
Record: 6-2
UCLA began the season as a dark-horse contender for the College Football Playoff, but those hopes have faded, along with serious hopes for a Pac-12 championship. The Bruins suffered home losses to Utah and Oregon and still must face No. 14 Arizona, Southern California and Stanford at the Rose Bowl.
Junior quarterback Brett Hundley has been impressive, throwing for 2,056 yards with 14 touchdowns against four interceptions as well as 415 rushing yards with five scores on the ground. However, a leaky offensive line has led him to run for his life at times and has hampered the Bruins overall.
A 10-win season remains within reach, but it won’t be easy given the schedule remaining.
Grade: C+
24. Duke
2 of 25
Record: 6-1
Quietly, David Cutcliffe has built a very impressive program in Durham. When Cutcliffe took over, Duke was mired as one of college football’s worst programs. Now, the Blue Devils are on track for their second consecutive ACC Coastal Division title and 10-win season. Duke is very stingy defensively, allowing 15.1 points per game, which ranks fifth nationally.
Duke faces a two-game road trip to Pitt and Syracuse but finishes the season at home against Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Wake Forest, which bodes well for its division title hopes. Regardless, it’s been a strong season already at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Grade: B+
23. Marshall
3 of 25
Record: 8-0
Marshall has done everything asked of it in racing to an unbeaten start. The Thundering Herd’s narrowest win was a 42-27 win over Miami (Ohio) in the opener, and the team averages 45.9 points per game, which ranks No. 3 nationally. Quarterback Rakeem Cato (2,130 yards, 20 touchdowns, six interceptions) garners headlines, but junior tailback Devon Johnson (1,203 rushing yards, 17 total touchdowns) is a force to be reckoned with as well.
Marshall is the clear favorite to win Conference USA and finish undefeated, but the Herd have no shot at a College Football Playoff berth. The only way they would face off against a Power Five team is in a playoff-associated bowl game. East Carolina has a stronger resume than Marshall to grab the Group of Five spot.
Grade: A
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22. Clemson
4 of 25
Record: 6-2
It’s been a strange season for Clemson. The Tigers began by losing two of their first three at Georgia and Florida State, although there’s no shame in that. True freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson emerged as a star, throwing a Clemson-record six touchdown passes in his first start against North Carolina.
Watson has thrown for 1,176 yards and 12 touchdowns against two interceptions, but when he broke his finger early on against Louisville, the offense shifted back into neutral.
Senior Cole Stoudt, who began the season as the starter, has been unimpressive, throwing two touchdowns against four interceptions. The Tigers have been forced to lean on their nasty defense, which is allowing just 18.3 points per game, No. 11 nationally. It made game-saving stops against Louisville and Boston College and allowed just two field goals in a 16-6 win over Syracuse.
Until Watson returns, that’ll be the modus operandi. Clemson’s biggest game left is against South Carolina, with the Tigers hoping to break a five-game losing streak to the rival Gamecocks.
Grade: B
21. East Carolina
5 of 25
Record: 6-1
The Pirates had the best September of any Group of Five school, upsetting ACC foes North Carolina and Virginia Tech while playing South Carolina strong before suffering their only defeat. They appear to be the clear class of the AAC, with a Dec. 4 visit from Central Florida their toughest remaining test.
ECU averages 381.9 passing yards per game, third-best nationally. Senior quarterback Shane Carden has thrown for 2,574 yards with 18 touchdowns against five interceptions and is an impressive, prolific passer.
Should they win out, the Pirates are the favorite to claim the Group of Five spot allotted in the suite of College Football Playoff-associated bowl games, which would be a big victory for this program.
Grade: A-
20. West Virginia
6 of 25
Record: 6-2
Dana Holgorsen entered this season on the hot seat, but West Virginia’s solid play has certainly cooled off Holgorsen’s seat significantly. The Mountaineers own a home upset of then-No. 4 Baylor, and their only losses have come to Alabama and Oklahoma, nothing to be ashamed of.
West Virginia’s Air Raid passing attack averages 346.9 yards per game, No. 9 nationally. Senior quarterback Clint Trickett has thrown for 2,763 yards with 17 touchdowns against five interceptions, and senior receiver Kevin White is one of the nation’s most prolific wideouts, with 72 receptions for 1,047 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Mountaineers still must face No. 10 TCU and No. 11 Kansas State, but both teams come to Morgantown. That’s a huge advantage, making them a legit threat for the Big 12 title.
Grade: B+
19. Oklahoma
7 of 25
Record: 5-2
A season that began with dreams of a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth has been spectacularly disappointing in Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooners have home defeats to Kansas State and TCU and will need help just to get back in the Big 12 title race.
Sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight has been inconsistent, throwing for 1,821 yards with nine touchdowns against six interceptions. Freshman tailback Samaje Perine has been impressive in rushing for 657 yards and 10 scores on the ground.
With the toughest game remaining against No. 12 Baylor at home, 10 wins is still possible, but that isn’t what this season was about for the Sooners. Not even close.
Grade: B-
18. Utah
8 of 25
Record: 6-1
Utah has rebounded from missing postseason play a year ago to establish itself as one of the best teams in the Pac-12. The Utes own wins at Michigan and UCLA, and they added to that resume with a heart-stopping 21-17 win over then-No. 20 Southern California on Saturday night.
The Utes’ quarterback play has been inconsistent, but tailback Devontae Booker has been impressive, with 844 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
Utah still has a legit shot at the Pac-12 title but faces a tough season-ending stretch, with games against No. 15 Arizona State, No. 5 Oregon and No. 14 Colorado. One question: How in the world did this team lose to Washington State?
Grade: B
17. Nebraska
9 of 25
Record: 7-1
Nebraska has lost at least four games in every season of Bo Pelini’s tenure, but that streak appears to be extremely endangered. The Cornhuskers look like the best team in the Big Ten West, averaging 293.4 rushing yards per game, No. 7 nationally. Senior tailback Ameer Abdullah has 1,249 rushing yards and 17 scores and is one of the nation’s top rushers and a legit Heisman Trophy candidate. Junior end Randy Gregory is one of the nation’s most feared defensive ends.
The Huskers’ only loss was a hard-fought 27-22 defeat at Michigan State, and they’d love a rematch with the Spartans in the Big Ten title game. To do so, they’ll have to win games at Wisconsin and Iowa in November, which is no easy feat. But they’re the clear favorites in the West.
Grade: B
16. LSU
10 of 25
Record: 7-2
A young offense has had its share of ups and downs for LSU and Les Miles, but the Tigers appear to be rounding into form at the right time. Saturday’s 10-7, defense-fueled upset of Ole Miss reminded fans that the Tigers will still have something to say about the College Football Playoff picture, even if they aren’t a part of it themselves.
That win came three weeks after the season’s nadir, a 41-7 loss at Auburn. LSU appears to have settled, for better or worse, on inconsistent sophomore quarterback Anthony Jennings, and freshman Leonard Fournette (657 rushing yards, seven scores) is one of the nation’s top new tailbacks.
Alabama visits Nov. 8, and the win over Ole Miss should remind the Crimson Tide that Baton Rouge is never an easy place to play. A New Year’s Day bowl remains on the table for this group.
Grade: B
15. Arizona State
11 of 25
Record: 6-1
Has much-traveled coach Todd Graham finally found a home in the desert? Arizona State fans hope so. The Sun Devils have found success under Graham’s watch and appear ready to challenge for their second consecutive Pac 12 South title.
Quarterbacks Mike Bercovici and Taylor Kelly have combined to throw 18 touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging 303 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 19 nationally. Tailback D.J. Foster has 1,072 combined rushing and receiving yards and eight total touchdowns, and wideout Jaelen Strong is also an impressive passing-game threat.
ASU can win with defense as well, as it showed the past two weeks in holding Stanford and Washington to a combined 20 points. A win over then-No. 16 Southern California is a solid feather in the cap, and games against No. 18 Utah, No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 14 Arizona remain on the slate. A Pac-12 title won’t be easy but this appears to be a fairly well-rounded group.
Grade: B
14. Arizona
12 of 25
Record: 6-1
Rich Rodriguez has found tremendous success with a pair of young offensive players. Redshirt freshman Anu Solomon emerged as Arizona’s quarterback in August and has been one of the nation’s top freshmen, throwing for 2,430 yards with 20 touchdowns against four interceptions. Meanwhile, fellow freshman tailback Nick Wilson is Arizona’s leading rusher, with 592 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Arizona has one of the nation’s best road wins, a 31-24 win at then-No. 2 Oregon. Defense is an issue, as the Wildcats yield an average of 28.3 points per game, ranking No. 81 nationally. The finishing kick won’t be easy, with trips to No. 25 UCLA and No. 18 Utah and a season-ending visit from No. 15 Arizona State. Still, this program has made clear progress from RichRod’s first two seasons in the desert.
Grade: B
13. Ohio State
13 of 25
Record: 6-1
Ohio State had an ugly start to the season, thanks to Heisman Trophy candidate and senior quarterback Braxton Miller’s season-ending shoulder surgery (Miller will redshirt this season). Freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett was thrown into the fray and struggled in a 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech that looks worse by the week.
Since that night, however, the Buckeyes have made significant progress. Before a 31-24 double-overtime win at Penn State, OSU had surpassed 50 points in four consecutive games. The Buckeyes average 44.3 points per game, eighth nationally, and are rushing for 254 yards per game, No. 18 nationally. Barrett has thrown for 1,689 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions and shown big-time growth from September.
The Buckeyes still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff but must run the table, including a Nov. 8 trip to No. 8 Michigan State, which will likely decide the Big Ten East.
Grade: B
12. Baylor
14 of 25
Record: 6-1
There have been many years when 6-1 entering November would’ve been cause for celebration in Waco. This might not be one of them. Expectations were high coming off a Big 12 title season, but a 41-27 loss at West Virginia put Baylor’s College Football Playoff hopes in jeopardy given a weak nonconference schedule.
Baylor can score with anyone. The Bears average 49 points per game, No. 2 nationally, and senior quarterback Bryce Petty (1,757 yards, 17 touchdowns, three interceptions) is one of the nation’s top passers. Baylor also has a deep, talented backfield, and defensive end Shawn Oakman is one of the nation’s most highly regarded pass rushers.
But there are concerns about the Bears defense after it allowed a combined 99 points to TCU and West Virginia, an area that must be addressed if there is any hope of a College Football Playoff run.
Grade: B
11. Kansas State
15 of 25
Record: 6-1
You might have expected Baylor or Oklahoma to sit atop the Big 12 standings at this point. You probably did not expect Kansas State, and that’s OK. Few outside Manhattan, Kansas, did. But facts are facts: Bill Snyder’s team is the only unbeaten left in the league standings.
The Wildcats aren’t necessarily flashy. They’re led by senior quarterback Jake Waters, a dual threat who has thrown for 1,655 yards with nine touchdowns against three interceptions, adding seven rushing scores as K-State’s second-leading rusher. Receiver Tyler Lockett is a major big-play threat as well.
K-State’s defense is stingy, allowing 19.3 points per game, which ranks No. 16 nationally. The Wildcats shut out Texas on Saturday, the first time the Longhorns have been shut out in league play since 2004.
They own a win at Oklahoma, and their only loss was a hard-fought 20-14 home defeat to Auburn—hardly a major blemish. Trips to No. 10 TCU, No. 20 West Virginia and No. 12 Baylor will test them, but if they run the table, the Wildcats should be in the College Football Playoff mix.
Grade: B+
10. TCU
16 of 25
Record: 6-1
The Horned Frogs have authored the best turnaround in college football, thanks to a bold offseason move from coach Gary Patterson. Following a 4-8 season, Patterson turned to a fast-paced spread offense, and it has paid off in a huge way. TCU averages 50.4 points per game, tops nationally, and the Horned Frogs are coming off an 82-27 scorching of Texas Tech.
They own a win at then-No. 4 Oklahoma, and if not for a fourth-quarter collapse at Baylor, they’d be undefeated and in the thick of the College Football Playoff chase.
Junior quarterback Trevone Boykin has thrown for 2,306 yards with 21 touchdowns against three interceptions, and he also has 374 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.
TCU still must travel to No. 20 West Virginia and host No. 11 Kansas State, but the Frogs are in prime position for a Big 12 title and potential playoff bid.
Grade: B+
9. Georgia
17 of 25
Record: 6-1
Georgia has overcome plenty of adversity this season, with junior tailback Todd Gurley’s suspension for allegedly accepting payment for his autograph the biggest hurdle. Regardless, it has scarcely missed a beat, thanks to freshman tailback Nick Chubb (569 yards, five touchdowns).
Before his suspension, Gurley was a strong Heisman candidate with 773 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. Georgia has appealed to the NCAA for his return, and he could be back in time for Saturday’s game against Florida.
The Bulldogs defense is also improved under new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, yielding 20 points per game, which ranks No. 19 nationally. Georgia has an excellent nonconference win over Clemson and will host No. 4 Auburn Nov. 15. Win out, and the Bulldogs will have a case for a College Football Playoff bid. As is, it’s been an impressive start.
Grade: B+
8. Michigan State
18 of 25
Record: 7-1
The Spartans are a bad fourth quarter at Oregon away from being unbeaten and a strong part of the College Football Playoff conversation. As is, the 46-27 defeat is one of the best nonconference losses of the year, and the Spartans have built on last season’s 13-1 Big Ten title-winning breakout.
A young defense has improved as the season has gone along, and Michigan State’s offense is one of the nation’s most potent, averaging 45.5 points per game (fifth nationally).
Connor Cook is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, with 1,868 yards and 17 touchdowns against five interceptions. He has excellent weapons in tailback Jeremy Langford (841 yards, 10 touchdowns) and wideout Tony Lippett (42 receptions, 889 yards, nine scores).
A huge game looms Nov. 8 when No. 13 Ohio State visits East Lansing, and it will likely decide the Big Ten East title. The Spartans must run the table to have any chance at the College Football Playoff, but they have nothing to be ashamed of this fall.
Grade: B+
7. Ole Miss
19 of 25
Record: 7-1
Despite Saturday’s highly disappointing 10-7 loss at LSU, which ended a run at a perfect season, Ole Miss has joined the national conversation in a big way. The Rebels are one victory away from matching last season’s win total and are in the running for a College Football Playoff bid.
They have a nasty defense that is allowing only 10.5 points per game, best nationally, led by a playmaking secondary and a strong defensive line keyed by emerging sophomore defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche.
Senior quarterback Bo Wallace is the most experienced quarterback in the SEC, but he is still prone to terrible decisions, as the final play at LSU demonstrated. Having both No. 4 Auburn and No. 1 Mississippi State coming to Oxford helps, but Wallace must play like a senior, not an inconsistent sophomore, for the Rebels to make the playoffs.
Grade: B+
6. Notre Dame
20 of 25
Record: 6-1
Notre Dame has rebounded in a big way from last season’s 9-4 record, with the return of quarterback Everett Golson (who missed 2013 while serving an academic suspension) a major factor. Golson has 1,996 passing yards with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions, as well as 239 rushing yards and four scores.
In a 31-27 loss at No. 2 Florida State, the Fighting Irish showed they could hang with the nation’s elite, with only a late penalty that reversed a go-ahead touchdown in the final 30 seconds separating them from a validating victory.
New defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder has been a solid addition. Notre Dame allows only 19.1 points per game, which ranks No. 14 nationally. Games at No. 15 Arizona State and Southern California will be challenging, but Brian Kelly’s team has entered the College Football Playoff conversation, and with good reason.
Grade: B+
5. Oregon
21 of 25
Record: 7-1
Oregon had a 31-24 home loss to Arizona but otherwise has put together a solid resume as it heads into the final third of the 2014 season. The Ducks average 45.5 points per game, fifth nationally, and boast a strong Heisman Trophy candidate in junior quarterback Marcus Mariota. Mariota finally threw his first interception this week, but he has 2,283 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and one interception as a versatile, athletic passer.
Oregon has a deep backfield but doesn’t have a true No. 1 receiver; tailback Byron Marshall (38 receptions, 521 yards, four scores) is the Ducks’ leader in receptions and receiving yards. The defense, which allows 25.9 points per game (No. 61 nationally) also has room for improvement, but with No. 18 Utah as the only ranked team left on the regular-season slate, Oregon can make a compelling case for a College Football Playoff bid that currently includes wins over Michigan State and UCLA.
Grade: A-
4. Auburn
22 of 25
Record: 6-1
Last season’s national runner-up has hardly missed a beat, despite a 38-23 loss at Mississippi State for the season’s only blemish. Auburn averages 281 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 10 nationally, with senior Cameron Artis-Payne filling the void left by Heisman Trophy finalist Tre Mason (881 yards, six touchdowns). Senior quarterback Nick Marshall is an excellent dual threat with 1,684 total yards and 18 total touchdowns.
Auburn owns a road win at Kansas State that looks better by the week and routed LSU 41-7. As LSU improves, so does the value of that win. But while AU allows 20.7 points per game, No. 25 nationally, Saturday’s 42-35 escape against South Carolina shows that work remains before a season-ending stretch that includes trips to No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 9 Georgia and No. 3 Alabama. Survive that, and the Tigers will be College Football Playoff-worthy.
Grade: A-
3. Alabama
23 of 25
Record: 7-1
Everything is coming together at the right time for Alabama, which looks ready to make a College Football Playoff run. The Crimson Tide suffered a narrow 23-17 loss at Ole Miss and has been inconsistent at times offensively, but the schedule is set up perfectly for the Tide to make a legit case for a playoff bid.
Following an off week, Alabama travels to No. 16 LSU and finishes the season by hosting No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 4 Auburn. Win those games, and it’s hard to keep the Tide out of the playoff field, no matter if it wins the SEC West or not.
Junior receiver Amari Cooper has 71 receptions (third nationally) and 1,132 receiving yards (second nationally) with nine touchdowns. He has a pair of 200-plus-yard receiving games, including Saturday’s nine-catch, 224-yard, two-touchdown effort against Tennessee.
The Tide’s defense is typically salty too, led by hard-hitting junior safety Landon Collins. It allows 14 points per game, third-best nationally. This looks like one of the nation’s best teams.
Grade: A-
2. Florida State
24 of 25
Record: 7-0
The defending BCS national champs have taken everything the world has thrown at them and emerged unscathed. They skated past Oklahoma State in the opener, survived ACC Atlantic Division rival Clemson in overtime and took advantage of a late touchdown called back on an offensive penalty to survive No. 5 Notre Dame.
Heisman Trophy-winning sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston has been buffeted by controversy and hasn’t put up the numbers he did a year ago, throwing for 1,878 yards with 13 touchdowns against six interceptions, but he is still one of the nation’s best signal-callers.
FSU’s run game has been anemic. The Seminoles average 125.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 104 nationally. However, senior receiver Rashad Greene is one of the nation’s most prolific pass-catchers. Thursday’s trip to Louisville is FSU’s toughest remaining game. Look for the Seminoles to run the table and grab a College Football Playoff bid.
Grade: A-
1. Mississippi State
25 of 25
Record: 7-0
It’s hard to say anything negative about Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are one of the best stories in college football, having emerged from the depths of SEC West mediocrity into the top spot in the nation’s polls. They’ve already matched their win total from all of 2013 and are a strong College Football Playoff contender, although head coach Dan Mullen isn't thinking about the implications too much yet, as he told USA Today's Dan Wolken:
"I’ll be honest, you look at that stuff and trust me, it’s neat. Talk radio Wednesday morning is going to be absolutely amazing. The blogs will have 5000 comments underneath. For us, our focus is completely on Arkansas and trying to get one more win in the SEC. I think that’s the world and reality we have to live in, and I imagine if the rankings come out, we’ll be in the mix and that’s all that will matter this week and that’s a great honor this week.
If the playoffs were next week, I’d definitely be watching. But since they don’t start for quite a long time, I don’t know. I might be having dinner.
"
MSU owns the nation’s No. 13 rushing attack, averaging 273.1 yards per game, and reeled off three consecutive Top 10 wins over LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn. Only one of its seven wins has come by fewer than 14 points, and it features a bona fide Heisman Trophy contender in junior quarterback Dak Prescott, who has 1,694 yards passing with 15 touchdowns against five interceptions as well as 664 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Leading rusher Josh Robinson (887 yards, 10 touchdowns) is a bowling ball on grass and is very difficult to bring down.
Games at No. 3 Alabama and No.7 Ole Miss remain, but with a strong defense and running game, this looks like a strong playoff contender.
Grade: A
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