Ottawa Senators: An Early Season Look at PDO, Corsi, and the Sens' Hot Start

The Ottawa Senators have started the NHL season strong with a 4-1-0 record, grabbing fourth spot in the Eastern Conference. This start is impressive for two reasons.

First, the Senators have only played five games, fewer than any other team in the East.

Second, the record is surprising because the Senators have been an atrocious puck-possession team. 

Let's take a look at the hot start in Ottawa, the Sens' PDO, and early-season Corsi stars and duds.

PDO and Corsi: The Senators Start the Year with Luck

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Despite the four-game winning streak, the Ottawa Senators have sputtered at the start of the season. With a number of inexperienced skaters taking regular turns, such as Mike Hoffman, Curtis Lazar and Mark Stone, the team's puck possession has been spotty.

The Sens currently rank 28th in the NHL in Corsi For, with a CF percentage of 44.1. Even worse, 17 of the 19 Senators who have played this season are carrying a CF percentage below 50 percent.

So how have the Senators remained so competitive?

Luck.

The Ottawa Senators are currently ranked fifth in PDO in the NHL, with a 103.75 rating. In general, PDO tends toward 1.00 over the course of a season. No team maintained a PDO above 102.5 for the full season in 2013-14. 

With this rate of PDO, the Sens can be expected to see fewer goals for and/or more against when playing five-on-five as their luck evens out (for more on why this is expected, check out this post by Cam Charron).

Fewer goals for and more goals against will likely take some of the steam out of the fast start for the Ottawa Senators.

Corsi Stars and Duds

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Milan Michalek

In the early going, Milan Michalek and Bobby Ryan stand out in possession rates.

First, Milan Michalek's ice time has been limited, skating on the third or fourth line and receiving virtually no run on special teams.

Paul MacLean would be wise to increase Michalek's usage, as the veteran forward is easily the best possession performer with a CF percentage of 54.4. Though possession rates can be inflated if a skater starts the majority of his shifts in the offensive zone, Milan Michalek's rate seems legitimate, given the winger has started his shifts evenly in all three zones.

Without a point through the first five games, look for Michalek's poor personal luck (PDO of 97.2) to turn around with increased ice time.

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Bobby Ryan

Conversely, the well-compensated Bobby Ryan has face-planted to this season. With a CF percentage of 31.8 percent—the worst mark of any Ottawa Senators player—Ryan is truly struggling so far. Ryan's PDO is actually a little high (101.7), but his offensive zone starts are lagging (25 percent—the fourth-lowest on the team). For Sens fans, the hope is that Ryan's possession rates and overall performance levels even out as his usage normalizes.

Sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with games in hand, now is hardly time to panic in the nation's capital. But in the long run, the Senators will have to hope their possession rates increase; riding the PDO wave can't last long term.

What do you think, Sens fans? Are you happy with the way the Ottawa Senators have played so far or do the poor possession rates worry you?

Stats courtesy of Puckalytics unless otherwise noted.