UFC 179: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
After a short break from UFC action over the past couple of weeks, many of you may have started to experience withdrawal symptoms. But fear not—Saturday night’s UFC 179 from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, should take the edge off.
As has been the case in recent times, the card doesn’t boast exceptional depth, but there are a few intriguing bouts to look forward to. These include Jose Aldo defending his featherweight title against Chad Mendes, Phil Davis vs. Glover Teixeira, Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer and a few more besides.
Realising you may require some guidance, I woke the prediction team from their fortnight-long slumber and demanded their insight into the weekend’s action. Read on for my thoughts, as well as those of Scott Harris, Craig Amos, Riley Kontek and Sean Smith.
2014 Staff Records
1 of 6
Things are looking tight at the top of the leaderboard. Craig Amos and Riley Kontek are engaged in a monumental struggle to secure the top spot, but neither man is willing to give an inch. Frankly, it’s just an honour to compete against these two warriors.
Yours truly remains in third place, poised to strike if either man slips up.
Sean Smith is sitting in fourth position, comfortably ahead of Scott Harris, who has been struggling with injury all year. Like Cain Velasquez, Harris may be one of the sport’s great “what if?” stories.
Here are the updated records:
Craig Amos: 121-65-1
Riley Kontek: 121-65-1
James MacDonald: 119-67-1
Sean Smith: 115-71-1
Scott Harris: 111-75-1
Carlos Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush
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Kontek
Keep your eyes on Carlos Diego Ferreira. He is a top prospect in the UFC and has a chance to make a huge splash in the 155-pound division. This is his third straight fight against a midcarder with the company, but it's his chance to break out and warrant a step up in competition. He does that by tapping out Beneil Dariush, a very capable and dangerous opponent.
Ferreira, Submission, Rd. 2
Smith
With an 11-0 MMA record and stoppages in his first two UFC bouts, Ferreira is looking like one of the brighter prospects in the lightweight division. Having beaten Ramsey Nijem in his most recent outing, it's odd that Ferreira would be matched up with Dariush, who is one fight removed from a loss to Nijem. This one should be a competitive grappling match, though, with Ferreira coming out on top.
Ferreira, Unanimous decision
Amos
To me, this matchup is closer than some seem to think. Ferreira is getting recognition as a top prospect, but he isn't that far ahead of Dariush. Nevertheless, he holds a slight edge, and pairing that with home-field advantage seems to suggest the Brazilian will stay undefeated through October.
Ferreira, Unanimous decision
Harris
Both of these guys are top-notch jiu-jitsu players. Dariush would appear to have better takedowns, but Ferreira would appear to have better striking. Ferreira has made an early dent in the lightweight division, and he'll string combinations together on the feet to keep that rolling over a very tough, if not particularly famous, opponent.
Ferreira, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Ferreira looks to be the more well-rounded of the two fighters here. Both men are excellent grapplers, which may cancel the ground game out. However, if Ferreira chooses to keep the fight standing, he should get the job done against Dariush.
Ferreira, Unanimous decision
Darren Elkins vs. Lucas Martins
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Kontek
Lucas Martins might be one of the hardest strikers in the featherweight division, especially when he throws kicks. However, he doesn't have a great wrestling or ground game, something that Darren Elkins banks on in his fights. Elkins will get the takedown early and often. He can definitely finish it, but seeing his track record, I think he grinds out a decision.
Elkins, Unanimous decision
Smith
Since a rough welcoming to the Octagon by Edson Barboza, Martins has looked very good in three straight wins. On the heels of a win over Alex White, Martins might be taking on too much with Elkins, who will test the Brazilian's takedown defense more than anybody else has. Elkins shuts this one down with wrestling.
Elkins, Unanimous decision
Amos
Martins has won three straight bouts, most recently defeating Alex White. Whereas White gifted Martins the victory by refusing to even consider exploiting his wrestling advantage, Elkins will not. The American is too experienced and gritty to allow Martins to play his own game. He'll make it ugly and walk away the winner.
Elkins, Unanimous decision
Harris
Martins is fun to watch, but Elkins should use his wrestling to get back on track. It's hard to keep an Indiana man down; I just made that up, but it sounds good.
Elkins, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
This isn’t a great matchup for Martins. Elkins is a pure grinder, and I expect him to use his superior wrestling to earn the decision.
Elkins, Unanimous decision
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Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer
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Kontek
Everyone seems to be questioning this fight's placement on the main card, but you could find a potential Fight of the Night in Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer. Stringer is underrated, though he won't be confused with a world beater. Maldonado seems to thrive when not taking on elite competition, as his boxing is extremely refined and his takedown defense is tight. He should outbox Stringer in an entertaining scrap.
Maldonado, Unanimous decision
Smith
Although he won, Stringer didn't impress in his UFC debut against Francimar Barroso. The Dutchman started strong before allowing Barroso to close the gap in the later rounds, which does not bode well heading into a bout with Maldonado. I expect Maldonado to wear Stringer down with body punches en route to a close decision.
Maldonado, Unanimous decision
Amos
This matchup could be fun to watch, but it probably won't churn out an imminent title contender. Stringer has flashed potential at times, but he looked somewhat underwhelming in his UFC debut, despite getting the W. And while I assume Maldonado cannot have too many wars left in him, he should be able to hold serve in this one and win in front of a partisan crowd.
Maldonado, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
I hear Fabio Maldonado likes to engage in some striking exchanges. Stringer is not a big name in anyone's book, but here's guessing he fights a smart fight, gets Maldonado to the ground and stays away from those bloodlettings.
Stringer, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
This is a good fight for Maldonado. No one wants to see the Brazilian Arturo Gatti in a grappling match. He’ll get an opportunity to rip some shots to the body, absorb a few haymakers and generally thrill the audience. I expect him to get the win, too.
Maldonado, Unanimous decision
Glover Teixeira vs. Phil Davis
5 of 6
Kontek
Glover Teixeira has a puncher's chance. He punches hard and can end anybody's night with one strike. However, his wrestling will be tested early and often. He is a resourceful vet with underrated ground skills, and seeing as Phil Davis hasn't exactly looked like a world beater lately, Teixeira should pull this off in what is apparently an upset.
Teixeira, Unanimous decision
Smith
While Teixeira has solid takedown defense, he hasn't been tested by elite wrestlers too often. He surrendered three takedowns opposite Jon Jones and only faced one against Ryan Bader before the Arizona State University alumnus started trading punches with the slugger. Davis isn't going to get into a slugfest and will beat Teixeira on the ground.
Davis, Unanimous decision
Amos
Davis enters the contest as a sizable underdog, but he could make trouble for Teixeira with his high-level wrestling game. That wasn't the case when Anthony Johnson dismantled him earlier this year, but I'll take a leap of faith and say that Davis learned a lot from that disappointment, and that he is better-prepared for Saturday's challenge.
Davis, Unanimous decision
Harris
Davis has lost his fastball. As charismatic and accomplished as he is, I've got to pick against him until he proves he has it back. Teixeira's warhorse game plan of clinching and uppercutting will work again.
Teixeira, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
Davis is a terrific collegiate wrestler, but he isn’t the greatest MMA wrestler in the world. Against elite competition, he often struggles to get the fight to the floor. Whether he can drag Teixeira to the ground is up for debate, but it is likely his only real chance of earning the win. I see Teixeira being too well-rounded to be outgrappled for three rounds, though.
Teixeira, Unanimous decision
Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes
6 of 6
Kontek
Chad Mendes seems like a guy who can dethrone Jose Aldo, but I think we all forget how good Aldo is. He literally hasn't lost under the Zuffa umbrella. Neither man has great cardio, so whoever lasts longer and wins the earlier rounds will be victorious. That man is the champ.
Aldo, Unanimous decision
Smith
Mendes' striking seems to have improved since his first meeting with Aldo, but that doesn't change the fact that he needs to take the champion down in order to win. Unsuccessful on seven takedown attempts last time he clashed with Aldo, Mendes will need to show major improvement in his already solid wrestling in order to even the score with the Brazilian.
Aldo, Unanimous decision
Amos
It would be foolish to ignore Mendes' progression since his first tussle with Aldo, but despite going 5-0 since that loss, he hasn't taken out anyone even close to Aldo's level. He'll last a bit longer this time around, but ultimately the result will be the same.
Aldo, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
It's tempting to draw an analog between this fight and T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao. And hey, maybe there is one to be drawn. I just see Aldo's leg kicks and all-around defense being too strong to overcome.
Aldo, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
As others have noted, the parallels with Dillashaw vs. Barao are obvious. However, I don’t think Mendes is quite as good as Dillashaw, and Aldo is better than Barao. While the challenger has improved his striking, it’s difficult to see him winning a kickboxing contest. He’ll need to mix up his game well to win, but Aldo will just be that little bit better on the night.
Aldo, Unanimous decision
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