Vikings vs. Buccaneers: What Are Experts Saying About Minnesota?

The Minnesota Vikings (2-5) will travel to Raymond James Stadium this coming weekend to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) for the first time since 2012. Last Sunday the Vikings suffered a devastating defeat at the hands of Kyle Orton, Sammy Watkins and the Buffalo Bills (4-3), stretching their current losing streak to three games. The Buccaneers, who were on a bye last week, are also riding a losing streak, which was extended to two games in decisive fashion by the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) two weekends ago.

It was only slightly more than a decade ago that the Vikings and Buccaneers were division rivals in the dissolved NFC Central division. The 2000 season, which was the second-to-last year of the NFC Central, finished with the Vikings and Buccaneers on top of the division. Both teams managed a victory over the other, but the Vikings ended up winning the division by one game with a total of 11 victories. Despite failing to claim the division crown, Tampa managed to sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team. The division rivalry would not experience a playoff atmosphere, as Tampa Bay was eliminated during the Wild Card Round.

Minnesota and Tampa Bay would again split their season series in 2001, but the Buccaneers managed to qualify for the playoffs, while the Vikings dramatically regressed, compiling only five victories in their final season before becoming a member of the NFC North.

Naturally, the rivalry has faded quite a bit since these days, but both franchises are aware of their matchup history. Though the 2014 version of this matchup looks brutal on paper, anything can happen in a rivalry renewal game.

Throughout the week leading up to this overlooked matchup, the Vikings have received both praise and criticism from the media. The week-to-week development of running back Jerick McKinnon has many excited for what the future may hold, but a consistent lack of improvement by the team's offensive line remains a major concern.

Tampa Bay revamped its coaching staff during the 2014 offseason, hiring familiar faces in former Chicago Bears (3-4) head coach Lovie Smith and former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier. Also, the Buccaneers signed former Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1) defensive end Michael Johnson, who shares a strong bond with his former defensive coordinator and now Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer. As anticipated, media members and team experts have been all over the familiar ties between these two teams.

Let's see what the experts have to say about the Vikings this week.

Brian Dawkins, Mark Schlereth: Buccaneers Will Defeat Vikings

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The NFL Live crew of host Trey Wingo, former safety Brian Dawkins and former offensive guard Mark Schlereth were together again this week to discuss their thoughts and predictions concerning the Vikings matchup with the Buccaneers.

In his introduction, Wingo mentioned how poorly the Vikings have played on offense and how poorly the Buccaneers have played on defense, chuckling that something needs to give in this "perfect matchup," as Schlereth sarcastically stated before continuing into his prediction.

Schlereth said, "I'm going to go with Tampa Bay. They have had some time off, been able to go on that bye week and work to try to figure themselves out. So, this is just simply home team, off a bye, fresh, I'm going with Tampa Bay."

For the second consecutive week, Schlereth picked the Vikings to lose on the road against a very beatable opponent. Last week he spent the majority of his segment harping on Minnesota's offensive line issues. This week, however, he picks Tampa Bay as the winner strictly based on intangibles.

While coming off an extra week of rest and playing at home will undeniably work in Tampa Bay's favor, these intangibles alone do not carry enough weight to decide this game. As noted by Wingo earlier in the segment, the Vikings and Buccaneers have struggled on offense and defense, respectively. If one were to consider just these two factors, this game would appear to be a toss-up, and Schlereth's argument in favor of the team with better intangibles would be sufficient. However, this game is not solely a matchup between the Vikings' anemic offense and the Buccaneers' feeble defense.

The Buccaneers defense may be the featured concern in this conversation, but their offense has been an issue as well. According to ESPN, the Tampa Bay offense has averaged just 306.8 yards of total offense per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. In fact, the Vikings offense has been slightly better, ranking 29th in the NFL with an average output of 309.1 yards of offense.

Though Minnesota and Tampa Bay have been almost equally as inefficient on offense, the Vikings have a definitive advantage on defense. According to ESPN, the Buccaneers rank dead last in average yards allowed on defense. In comparison, the Vikings defense ranks 13th and is allowing an average of nearly 100 yards less per game. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had success against Atlanta's inept defense in his NFL debut, which could prove to be foreshadowing for his performance this weekend.

Dawkins said:

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Well I concur. I think that, you know, I knew it was going to take some time for the defense to come together and learn that Tampa 2 system. I didn't know they would struggle as much as they have, but as you mentioned, Minnesota's offensive line has been allowing pressure to get to the quarterback too many times. So, I think that they will raise the level of expectations of getting to the quarterback; they will actually get to him this week and they will pull out a victory.

"

For the second week in a row, Dawkins cites the Vikings' offensive line problems as his reason for predicting their defeat. While this criticism has been more than earned, the Buccaneers do not exactly boast a dynamic defensive line like Buffalo or Detroit. In fact, Tampa Bay's defensive line has been about as inadequate as Minnesota's offensive line.

Defensive end Michael Johnson, who was considered a big-name signing this past offseason, has been the least effective of the group. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Johnson has accounted for a total of nine quarterback pressures, which is tied for the worst total among 4-3 defensive ends. Simply, the 2014 version of Johnson looks nothing like the disruptive player he was in Cincinnati.

Dawkins does note Tampa Bay's issues in creating pressure, but he expects to see an improved performance against Minnesota's incompetent offensive line. While this could prove to be the case, this prediction is purely speculation, as there is no statistical evidence to support this claim. With that said, it could just as easily be predicted that the Vikings offensive line will perform better against the Buccaneers' incompetent defensive line.

Both Schlereth and Dawkins correctly chose Buffalo over Minnesota last week, but the NFL Live duo was one second away from being incorrect. Tampa Bay could prove superior this weekend, but team statistics predict otherwise.

Master Tesfatsion: Jerick McKinnon Will Have a Big Game Against Buccaneers

Jim Mone/Associated Press

In his recent article answering questions from Vikings fans, Master Tesfatsion of the Minneapolis Star Tribune predicted that rookie running back Jerick McKinnon would put together a strong performance against the Buccaneers this Sunday.

In response to a fan who asked "Is this the optimum McKinnon-to-Asiata ratio for the Vikings? Or will the gap widen? How about on goal line?" Tesfatsion responded:

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It was the second consecutive week we’ve seen Jerick McKinnon receive more snaps than Matt Asiata. McKinnon had 38 snaps, rushing for 103 yards on 19 carries, while Asiata had 26 on offense and 24 yards on six carries. At this point, I think McKinnon is the lead back given how he’s produced over the last few weeks in that role. He was the first running back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bills, who had the top ranked run defense at the time.

I think the gap will fluctuate depending on the situation, however. Asiata will likely remain as the short yardage back, and we could see more formations where both Asiata and McKinnon are in the game. I think it’s a safe bet that McKinnon will continue to receive most of the carries for the foreseeable future, and he should have another big game against a bad Bucs defense if the offensive line blocks well again.

"

Simply, Tesfatsion expects McKinnon to be the Vikings' lead running back moving forward. While he is unsure of how large of a gap there will be between McKinnon and Asiata's carries each week, he supposes that Asiata will assume a situational role as a short-yardage back or be used in specific formation designs. 

After answering the fan's three questions, Tesfatsion goes a step further and predicts a big performance against a subpar Buccaneers run defense.

As I pointed out in the previous slide, the Buccaneers defense is statistically the worst in the NFL. According to ESPN, Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 128.3 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry to opposing rushers, which rank 25th and 15th, respectively.

Not only is the Buccaneers' subpar run defense a favorable matchup for McKinnon, but he has been one of the better running backs in the NFL since he began receiving the majority of Minnesota's rush attempts.

As Vikings.com notes, McKinnon has made the most out of his carries:

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Rookie RB @JetMckinnon1 is 3rd IN THE NFL among qualifying RBs with a 5.2 yards per carry average pic.twitter.com/eb5iU4UOk8

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 23, 2014"

Against the Bills, who rank fourth in run defense this season, McKinnon rushed for 103 yards on 19 attempts, which amounts to an average of 5.4 yards per carry. He was the first rusher to reach 100 yards against Buffalo this season, and his 29-yard carry in the third quarter was the longest rushing attempt the Bills have allowed this season.

Facing a much weaker front four in Tampa Bay this weekend, it should come as no surprise if McKinnon continues his recent success with another strong performance and possibly his first career touchdown.

Note: In his article, Tesfatsion also compares Minnesota's offensive line to Tampa Bay's defensive line, predicts Teddy Bridgewater's individual performance this weekend and reveals a few players he expects to see improvement from during the second half of the NFL season.

Mark Craig: Mike Zimmer's Relationship with Buccaneers' Michael Johnson

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

The contest between the Vikings and Buccaneers is not just an ordinary game for multiple players and coaches. Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the relationship between Buccaneers defensive Michael Johnson and Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer in his article from earlier this week.

Johnson, who left the Cincinnati Bengals for a five-year, $43.8-million contract with the Buccaneers this offseason, spent multiple seasons under Zimmer while he was the Bengals' defensive coordinator. In fact, he was very close to rejoining Zimmer in Minnesota this offseason, as Craig notes:

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Defensive end Michael Johnson left Cincinnati and signed with Tampa Bay within an hour of the start of free agency seven months ago. But he admits there was a part of him that wanted to follow his 'father figure,' Mike Zimmer, from his defensive coordinator stint in Cincinnati to his first head coaching job in Minnesota.

"

Zimmer and Johnson have a relationship that stretches past the football field, as shown by his "father figure" reference. On the football field, however, it was strictly business. Johnson thrived under Zimmer's tutelage, compiling multiple successful seasons, which ultimately led to his massive contract with Tampa Bay. According to ESPN, Johnson recorded 11.5 sacks in 2012 under Zimmer, which still remains as his career high. He was a key member of a Bengals defense that allowed the sixth and third fewest yardage totals in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Later on in his article, Craig asks Johnson to describe Zimmer in one word:

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Tough. The way he approached things. We had a bad year my second year. But he always said it doesn’t matter what was going on. He’d say, 'Tough times don’t last, tough people do.' That was his mentality. These first six games here have been tough times down here. So tough times don’t last but tough people do. I’ve taken that with me from Cincinnati. I try to apply that not only in football but life as well.

"

Johnson then goes on to describe Zimmer both as a coach and as a person:

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He’s a great coach and a great man. He’s like a father figure to a lot of us up there. And the guys on offense will tell you the same thing. They weren’t working directly with him, but everybody likes Zim. He was straight up. He can be hard on you, but he was like that with everybody. You respect that about him. Guys are always going to play hard for him because you don’t ever want to let him down. You don’t want to let Zim down.

"

Simply, Johnson has the utmost respect for Zimmer for both his traits as a coach and his genuine personality. His references to Zimmer's "straight-up" attitude and his personal identity that commands respect from both his players and colleagues have become common themes in player descriptions of him.

Now in Tampa Bay, Johnson has the responsibility of getting to know both the personality and defensive scheme of his new defensive coordinator, Leslie Frazier. To his own displeasure, this change to a new city, organization, coaching staff and defensive scheme has not ran as smoothly as he may have wished.

Johnson has struggled in his first season playing without Zimmer in Frazier's Tampa 2 defensive system. He has compiled just two sacks this season, and his 5.2 pass-rushing productivity is the second-lowest among qualifying 4-3 defensive ends, according to Pro Football Focus.

While Zimmer wishes Johnson the best with his new team, he undoubtedly would love to see his struggles continue this weekend. With Johnson slated to oppose Zimmer's struggling left tackle Matt Kalil this Sunday, the Vikings cannot afford to have Johnson break out of his slump now.

Only one player can leave this game knowing he won his assignment. Given the importance of pass rushing and pass protecting, it would make sense that the winner of this in-game matchup is also on the victorious team.

Mike Wobschall: Pass Rush Looks to Stay Hot Against Familiar Foes

Jim Mone/Associated Press

In his recent article for Vikings.com, Mike Wobschall gives an overview of five key storylines to keep an eye on this weekend.

The first storyline Wobschall touches on is the recent success of the Vikings pass rush:

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The Vikings have gotten after opposing quarterbacks in 2014 and the defensive line in particular has been hot over the past two games. Entering Week 8, the Vikings rank sixth in sacks with 20, a total that includes 10 sacks over the past two weeks against Detroit and Buffalo. Of those 10 sacks, 9.0 have come from the defensive line, and of the 20 for the season, 16 have come from the front four. Everson Griffen had 3.0 sacks last week in Buffalo, has a sack in three consecutive games and leads the NFL over the past nine games with 9.5 sacks. Also, DT Tom Johnson has a career high 4.0 sacks through his first seven games as a Viking.

"

Minnesota's pass rush was relatively ineffective through the first five weeks of this season, averaging just two sacks per game over this span of time. As noted by Wobschall, the Vikings—specifically Everson Griffen and Tom Johnson—have taken it up a notch in recent weeks. Impressively, the Vikings have totaled 10 sacks over the past two games and, as a result, now rank sixth in the NFL with 20 sacks as a team.

Another notable point Wobschall makes is the amount of sacks that have come from the defensive line. Nine of the Vikings' 10 sacks over the previous two games and 16 of the team's total of 20 have came courtesy of the defensive line.

Having success rushing only four players gives defenses a huge advantage, as it makes calling plays easier and directly correlates with success in coverage. Cornerbacks Xavier Rhodes and Josh Robinson have already shown vast improvement this season, and a consistently dynamic pass rush can only further their development.

Finally, Wobschall points out the impressive statistics Johnson has put together this season. Given that Johnson receives limited snaps, as he technically sits behind Sharrif Floyd on Minnesota's depth chart, his four sacks from the defensive tackle position are extremely impressive.

On top of his four sacks, Johnson has been responsible for four hits and five hurries for a grand total of 13 total pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Lions massive defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh leads the position with 24 total pressures this season, but he has received 227 pass-rushing snaps compared to Johnson's 118. As a result of his gaudy statistics in limited time this season, Johnson's 9.1 pass-rushing productivity ranks second to only Detroit's Nick Fairley among defensive tackles this season.

Despite his relatively advanced age of 30, the Vikings should (and likely will) make it a priority to re-sign Johnson this offseason. At the very least, he has proved to be one of the best backup defensive tackles in the NFL. Johnson currently is playing under a one-year, $845,000 incentive-based contract in his first season wearing a purple jersey.

Another major focus of Wobschall's article is the Vikings' familiarity with Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier:

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When the Vikings look across the field to the home sideline on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium, they will see a couple of familiar faces patrolling the sidelines. Tampa Bay’s Defensive Coordinator is Leslie Frazier, who was with the Vikings from 2007-13 serving first as defensive coordinator and then as head coach. While with the Vikings, Frazier helped the team to two division titles as defensive coordinator and also a 10-6 record and Wild Card berth as head coach.  Frazier joined the Buccaneers staff and is working under head coach Lovie Smith, who was coach of the division rival Chicago Bears from 2004-12 and authored a record of 11-7 against the Vikings in that time.

"

For some Vikings players, Sunday's matchup against Frazier's defense will feel strange. Players such as Brian Robison and Harrison Smith had plenty of success playing in Frazier's defensive scheme and have undeniable respect for him as both a coach and a person. While many of the Vikings' offensive starters are different from Frazier's head coaching tenure, there are plenty of guys who played under him last year or in previous seasons. Only time will tell if Frazier's familiarity with featured offensive players like Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson will be an asset to the Buccaneers this weekend.

Wobschall also notes Minnesota's familiarity with former Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith. Smith had plenty of success against the Vikings during his tenure with the Bears, compiling a record of 8-12, according to Pro Football Reference. From December 2009 to November 2012, Smith compiled six consecutive victories against the Vikings. His formidable defenses became a trademark of his tenure, as he put together four different defenses that ranked in the top 10 in total defense.

The Vikings' pass rush and familiarity with Frazier and Smith will play key roles this weekend. As noted multiple times, Frazier and Smith have struggled to find success with their Tampa 2 defense this season. With that said, even a calm personality like Frazier cannot help but be fired up to face the organization that fired him.

Note: In his article, Wobschall also discusses the health of Tampa Bay's players, the matchup between Minnesota's cornerbacks and Tampa Bay's wide receivers and an explanation for how this game could mark a turning point for Minnesota.

Ben Goessling, Pat Yasinskas: Quarterback Situations in Minnesota and Tampa Bay

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In order to preview this weekend's matchup between the Vikings and Buccaneers, ESPN team reporters Ben Goessling and Pat Yasinskas fired questions at each other concerning important elements of each team in a recently released collaborative article.

While there is no determined focus to this article, both Goessling and Yasinskas spend a considerable amount of time discussing each team's quarterback situation. In fact, the very first question Yasinskas asks Goessling revolves around the performance of Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater: "Ben, I know the numbers aren't pretty. But has Bridgewater been showing any signs of progress?"

Given Minnesota's offensive struggles and how much teams rely on solid quarterback play, the progression of Bridgewater has and will continue to be a major focus in Vikings coverage.

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Goessling: He has shown some. He hit 12 of his 15 throws after a pair of interceptions in Buffalo on Sunday, and I thought he did a better job of trusting himself to find his receivers downfield than he has in recent weeks. He has looked great at times, especially in the Vikings' win over Atlanta last month, but he's still figuring a lot of things out. He needs to be better about throwing on target, and he has fallen victim to the same problems that plague many rookies, when he has held the ball a little too long or thrown late because he didn't make up his mind soon enough. But it's important to remember that Bridgewater doesn't have Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph and an offensive line that can protect him. The Vikings have given up 27 sacks this season, which is the second-most in the league, and they've forced Bridgewater to run for his life on a number of other occasions.

"

While Yasinskas somewhat baits Goessling's response by stating a negative perception on Bridgewater's season thus far, Goessling puts together a thoughtful and fluid answer. Despite throwing for his first touchdown pass, Bridgewater's performance against Buffalo last weekend was lackluster at best. Aside from the monumental touchdown pass, he compiled only 157 passing yards and threw two interceptions to cornerback Leodis McKelvin.

However, as Goessling notes, Bridgewater completed 12 of his next 15 passes after his second interception. Goessling cites self-trust, which is important for every quarterback and even more important for rookie quarterbacks, as the reason for this improvement.

After noting Bridgewater's achievements against Buffalo, Goessling rattles off a list of areas where he needs to improve. While his first interception came on a tipped pass, the second one was a product of holding the ball too long, not making up his mind quick enough and forcing a pass into a small hole. It is worth noting that McKelvin made a great play on the ball, which didn't help the situation.

Regardless of whether you consider it to be an excuse or not, the fact remains that Bridgewater has been without multiple key elements that would make his job much easier. He has been without arguably the best running back in football in Adrian Peterson and his big, athletic tight end Kyle Rudolph.

He has also received particularly inefficient and inconsistent offensive line play from a group that has been very productive in the past. The 27 sacks given up by this group, which is missing a key member in right guard Brandon Fusco, is absurd. A few of these sacks are likely a result of Bridgewater holding onto the ball too long, but no rookie quarterback can thrive under this level of pressure. It is no secret, but he needs better protection and fast.

After thoroughly answering Yasinskas' question, Goessling fires back with a quarterback question of his own: "Speaking of quarterbacks, will Glennon remain the starter or will Josh McCown get the job back now that he is healthy?"

Though the Vikings offense has been noticeably ineffective this season, there is nothing worse than a week-to-week quarterback controversy, which is what Tampa Bay's situation may be shaping out to be.

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Yasinskas: Coach Lovie Smith has been coy about his plans. My best guess is Glennon will get at least one more start because McCown returned to practice only this week and was out for more than a month. I think Glennon has played well enough to be the full-time starter, but I'm not sure Smith sees it that way. McCown was Smith's hand-picked quarterback and the two have history together from their Chicago days. Smith's history has shown he prefers to go with veterans. Back in Chicago, he once benched Kyle Orton, who was playing well, as soon as Rex Grossman got healthy. It wouldn't surprise me if Smith goes back to McCown.

"

Yasinskas touches on a number of interesting points that will likely play an important role in this weekend's contest. The fact that Smith is yet to officially name his starting quarterback is likely a tactic to mess with Mike Zimmer and the preparation of the Vikings defense. Creating a defensive game plan around one quarterback's skill set is already difficult. As expected, not knowing who exactly to game-plan for increases this difficulty.

Since taking over for McCown after he was injured during Tampa Bay's Week 3 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, Glennon has compiled solid statistics, but he has shown inconsistency. According to ESPN, Glennon has averaged 288.3 passing yards in his three starts this season. Not including his relief performance in Atlanta, Glennon's average yards per game would rank sixth among quarterbacks this season. His ratio of seven touchdowns to three interceptions is by no means elite, but it is somewhat productive.

However, Glennon is only completing 57 percent of his passes, which reflects his subpar 6.94 yards per pass attempt. He has actually completed less than 55 percent of his passes in two of his starts for the Buccaneers this season.

While I agree with Yasinskas that he has played well enough to be the full-time starter, this opinion is based more on McCown's failures than Glennon's successes. McCown's failures are best illustrated through his ratio of two touchdowns to four interceptions, 6.18 yards per attempt average and average of 181 passing yards in the two games he started and completed.

What makes this controversy interesting is the fact that performance is not the deciding factor, but rather who Smith believes in, and Yasinskas seems to think that McCown is "his guy." While Glennon's underwhelming completion percentage would give the Vikings an advantage in coverage, McCown probably would be easier to defend as a whole. With that said, the Vikings defense should not have an issue containing either quarterback.

Regardless of who starts in Week 8 and moving forward for Tampa Bay, Smith and the Buccaneers will likely be drafting a quarterback next April. While the Buccaneers have been noticeably terrible at creating an effective pass rush, their quarterback situation is a much more pressing issue, as neither Glennon nor McCown appears to warrant future consideration. With potential stars like Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Brett Hundley and Bryce Petty, expect the Buccaneers to take care of their quarterback situation with a first-round pick in 2015.

Though Bridgewater has been forced to endure some growing pains over the past few weeks against two formidable defenses, Sunday will be one of the few times the Vikings have an advantage at the quarterback position. He was both consistent and effective against Atlanta's 29th-ranked pass defense in Week 4, and he should not have a problem putting together a similar performance this weekend against Tampa Bay's NFL-worst pass defense.

Note: In their collaborative article, Goessling and Yasinskas also discuss Minnesota's offensive line issues, Tampa Bay's problems on defense, Minnesota's inability to close out games and Doug Martin's ineffectiveness this season.