Colts vs. Steelers: Breaking Down Pittsburgh's Game Plan
As I sit here at my laptop, working on this piece, I find myself conflicted. There’s no doubt the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing better football than earlier in the season. There is also no doubt that, at home, this team is hard to beat.
However, as I look at the Indianapolis Colts, I find myself trying to strike a balance between being objective and being a fan.
When you really look at these two teams closely, things are a bit grim for Pittsburgh.
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The Steelers come into the game with a 4-3 record after a home win over the Houston Texans on Monday. The game was decided during a three-minute stretch at the end of the first half when Pittsburgh found a way to capitalize on Texans mistakes and put up 24 unanswered points to end the half.
This is a game that is going to require more than a great game plan. It is going to take a few breaks for Pittsburgh to pull off the upset.
The Steelers cannot count on the burst of points they got against a very average Texans team. The Colts are strong in all phases of the game, so it is going to take a monumental effort by the Steelers to win.
When the Steelers Are on Offense
Pittsburgh has plenty of weapons with which to move the football against the Colts. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger leads the charge, but it is wide receiver Antonio Brown and especially running back Le’Veon Bell who steal the show.
Pittsburgh has to have the goal of keeping the Colts offense off the field. That means a heavy dose of the second-leading rusher in the NFL in Bell.
With 599 rushing yards in seven games, Bell has proven himself worthy of feature-back status. Bell also brings superior receiving skills to the party, and you can bet he is going to build significantly on the 339 receiving yards that he already has.
Look for the Steelers to move Bell all over the field. Yes, he’s going to get plenty of touches in the zone-run game.
Bell’s patience and vision are truly elite. He is able to wait out his blockers, and when a crease presents itself, exploit it in a major way.
However, Pittsburgh is going to also split Bell out wide, creating mismatches in coverage and getting the dynamic Bell the ball in the open field.
All this praise for Bell doesn't negate the fact that Brown is also among the elite at his position.
The matchup between him and cornerback Vontae Davis will be one to watch. Davis won’t shut Brown out, but he could keep him in check enough that Big Ben is going to need to target guys like tight end Heath Miller and up-and-coming rookie wide receiver Martavis Bryant early to take off some heat early.
Schematically, Pittsburgh will try to complete some quick throws in an attempt to keep Roethlisberger clean. The Steelers' offensive line has been inconsistent all season, so offensive coordinator Todd Haley must tailor the scheme around this group in order to maximize offensive efficiency.
When the Steelers Are on Defense
The fact of the matter is the Colts are going to move the football. Quarterback Andrew Luck has quickly become one of the best signal-callers in the game, and he has this Colts offense humming.
Luck has topped 300 passing yards in his last five games. Pro-Football-Reference.com indicates he can tie the third-longest streak in NFL history with another on Sunday.
So, what can the Steelers do? There is an old football philosophy that says you play pressure on bad quarterbacks and coverage on great ones.
Ideally, the Steelers can drop seven into coverage and pressure with four. The reality is, that hasn’t worked all year, so why would it start against Luck and his cast of skill players?
Pittsburgh needs to take a page out of what it did against the Texans last week: Crowd the line of scrimmage and make the Colts believe the defense is sending more men than they can block. Keep the defensive line standing up in order to disguise who will rush until the snap.
Unfortunately, the Steelers are too thin on the back end to get too exotic with their pressures.
Safety Mike Mitchell is going to have to be a patrolling deep safety, helping the cornerbacks with wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne.
Fellow safety Troy Polamalu will hover in the short zones, playing the run and chasing the Colts’ tight ends on all those crossing routes.
Once again, the Steelers need to play sound, fundamental football and maintain gap integrity. With all this discussion about Luck, running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson could carve this defense up if they are taken for granted.
One thing the Steelers cannot do is get away from their own strengths. When faced with an elite offense like the one Indianapolis has, you must be at your best. That means sticking with what you do best rather than trying to change things up too much in order to account for the offense.
Rookie Impact
The Steelers will once again trot out multiple rookies on both sides of the football.
If linebacker Ryan Shazier is able to return, that would make five rookies who could see significant reps. According to ESPN.com's Scott Brown, Shazier took part in a full practice on Thursday for the first time since spraining his knee.
On offense, running back Dri Archer is still trying to find his way, but wide receiver Martavis Bryant is coming along quickly and could be a real X-factor in this game.
On defense, defensive linemen Stephon Tuitt and Daniel McCullers flashed some things on Monday night against the Texans. Look for both of them to have expanded roles against the Colts. If Shazier is in the lineup, he will likely split time with Sean Spence.
What all this means is the younger, more athletic team we were promised is finally starting to show up.
Penalties, Turnovers and Sacks
For the bulk of the season, Pittsburgh has been burned by far too many penalties, far too few turnovers and practically no sacks. It might be too much to ask for a turnaround in all three categories, but if Pittsburgh wants to win, improvement in two of these three areas would be a huge boost.
Prediction and Implications
I have to take off the fan hat and be reasonable about this. Pittsburgh has a prime-time game the following week against the division rival Baltimore Ravens. It’s vital that Pittsburgh stays above .500 on this three-game home stretch.
That means if Pittsburgh is going to drop one, I’d rather it be against the Colts.
The Steelers are going to move the football and should be able to score. However, I’m not sure if this defense can keep the offense in the game. In the end, it’s too much Luck for the Steelers to overcome.
Colts 31, Steelers 24
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