UNC Basketball: Will Tar Heels Go Undefeated in 2014-15 Nonconference Play?

The beauty of the college basketball regular season—as opposed to its football counterpart—for the top teams is that an early loss or two does not ruin their long-term goals. That means powerhouses like North Carolina are incentivized to schedule marquee nonconference games to prepare for March, and the fans are given a real treat before ACC play begins.

The Tar Heels certainly won’t have to worry about strength of schedule numbers come Selection Sunday given their daunting nonconference slate. Just because they can afford an early loss, though, doesn’t mean they want one.

With that in mind, what are the chances North Carolina runs through its nonconference schedule without a loss before it makes a run at the ACC title?

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

It is important to point out those chances aren't high simply because it is a difficult schedule. Head coach Roy Williams suggested as much, via C.L. Brown of ESPN.com:

"

If you have some success, you can say that I am more prepared than just about anybody to get into conference play and that’s what we are trying to do. In the pre-conference, get ready for conference play, but also to play some of those national-type games to measure yourself to see how you can do outside the league as well. It is planned to try and get better, get better, get better so that you are hopefully playing your best basketball at the end of the season, when it’s the most important.

"

Before we dig into the schedule game by game, it is worth recapping exactly what North Carolina brings to the table. After all, if the Tar Heels didn’t have legitimate talent, the possibility of an undefeated nonconference run wouldn’t even be a conversation.

Marcus Paige is an absolute superstar and a legitimate candidate for ACC Player of the Year and perhaps even National Player of the Year if he takes another jump. He can drill it from three-point range, attack the basket off the dribble and set up teammates with crisp passes, which helped him carry the Tar Heels a number of times last year.

While he became the first North Carolina player since 1995-96 to lead his team in scoring and assists, he won’t have to carry quite the same load this year.

J.P. Tokoto will anchor the defense with his length and athleticism, Joel Berry will take some of the backcourt pressure off Paige with his shooting ability and Brice Johnson could be the most improved player in the conference if he stays out of foul trouble on a consistent basis. In fact, Johnson has the talent to be a double-double machine every night this season.

Throw in Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks, and this is a deeper and more talented team than a year ago.

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

It’s clear the pieces are in place to win a lot of games, but can North Carolina really win all of them before ACC play begins?

There are a number of nonconference tilts we can simply assume the Tar Heels are going to handle just by rolling the basketballs out on the floor given their status as a Top 10 team.

North Carolina plays N.C. Central at home, Robert Morris at home, Davidson in Charlotte, East Carolina at home, UNC Greensboro in Greensboro, UAB at home and William and Mary at home.

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

It would be dangerous for the players and coaching staff to overlook games, especially the one against Davidson, but fans and commentators can safely assume North Carolina will win these ones. After all, we are talking about the No. 6 team in the country in the initial USA Today Coaches Poll, and Stephen Curry isn’t walking through any doors for Davidson.

That leaves the difficult games on the nonconference schedule.

North Carolina is playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis from Nov. 26-28 in the Bahamas and will start off with Butler. After that, it will play UCLA or Oklahoma and finally finish against UAB, Florida, Georgetown or Wisconsin. It is obviously difficult to project how the Tar Heels will do in these three games because playing UAB is a lot different than playing national championship contenders like Wisconsin or Florida.

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Let’s assume, though, for argument’s sake that North Carolina gets past Butler and UCLA/Oklahoma (easier said than done, but none of those teams is as talented as the Tar Heels on paper) and runs into the Badgers or Florida in the last game.

In terms of the experience and talent combination, there may not be a better team in the country than Wisconsin. The Badgers should have plenty of confidence after last year’s Final Four run and return star center Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Nigel Hayes, Traevon Jackson, Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig.

The frontcourt alone is rather imposing with Kaminsky as one of the country’s best centers, Hayes as a rapidly improving presence and Dekker as a potential first-round NBA draft pick down the line.

Florida may pose a slightly less daunting challenge, but it is still the No. 7 team in the country even though it lost four senior starters from a year ago.

Sharpshooter Michael Frazier II, athletic Dorian Finney-Smith and potential superstar Chris Walker give the Gators a formidable core, and Kasey Hill is an ideal pass-first point guard to get them each the ball. Florida is once again a serious candidate for a Final Four run.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Outside of the Battle 4 Atlantis, the Tar Heels have a matchup with perennially underrated Iowa in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Aaron White led the Hawkeyes to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006 last year, and they should contend for a top-four seed in the Big Ten in 2014-15.

At least that one is in Chapel Hill.

Speaking of Big Ten teams, North Carolina plays Ohio State in December at the United Center in Chicago as part of the CBS Sports Classic with Kentucky and UCLA. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 20 in the country and have a solid mix of returning veterans and talented freshmen.

Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

Shannon Scott anchors a potentially stout defense, guard D’Angelo Russell is the highest-regarded newcomer because of his scoring ability and overall quickness and guys like Sam Thompson, Marc Loving, Anthony Lee, Keita Bates-Diop, Jae’Sean Tate and Amir Williams give Thad Matta plenty of depth.

This will be more challenging than the No. 20 next to Ohio State’s name indicates because the Buckeyes are quite athletic and will use defensive pressure to attempt to rattle Paige.

Finally, North Carolina’s premier nonconference showdown comes against Kentucky in Lexington in front of what should be one of the most raucous crowds in all of college basketball this season.

The Wildcats are No. 1 for a reason and have returnees Willie Cauley-Stein, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress to help another loaded recruiting class get accustomed to the college game. Among the freshmen are potential superstars in Karl Towns, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.

That is a lot of McDonald’s All-Americans to deal with on the road for the Tar Heels. 

This team is so deep that we could see a radical strategy from John Calipari, via ESPN College Basketball:

"

Kentucky's plan: Two 5-man units "We're trying to do something never done in college basketball." - Calipari: http://t.co/1WAdUBhTie

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) October 6, 2014"

North Carolina is incredibly talented and has the exact right idea with this schedule. Playing this many difficult games before ACC play begins will have the Tar Heels ready to go when Duke and Syracuse are on the other end of the floor.

However, playing Iowa at Chapel Hill and Ohio State, Wisconsin/Florida and Kentucky all away from home is not a recipe for an undefeated nonconference run. It’s just not realistic to expect a win in every one of those games, especially against the Wildcats, because the Tar Heels would have to play at their best every night out. 

It will be more important if the Tar Heels use this daunting stretch of games to prepare themselves to go undefeated in March.

Follow me on Twitter:

Follow @ScottPolacek