Phoenix Suns 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction
Going into the 2013-14 NBA season, the Phoenix Suns adopted the slogan "Ignite the Future." Perhaps that was because they expected to go through a few rough years and wanted to motivate fans by pointing to a brighter future.
As it turned out, the Suns ended up winning 48 games last season, shocking the NBA world and perhaps themselves. Analysts at ESPN, Sports Illustrated and every other media outlet never saw what they considered to be a potpourri of mediocre talent achieving so much.
And when I say every media outlet, I include myself. Last season, I predicted Phoenix would finish among the worst teams in the Western Conference and win just 24 games.
So, you might want to take this record projection with a grain of salt.
The rebuild is over, and while the Suns are far from obtaining contender status, they are ready to take the next step and bring playoff basketball back to Phoenix for the first time since the 2009-10 season.
The Suns did make a few moves over the summer, such as acquiring Isaiah Thomas and Anthony Tolliver, but for the most part, they will rely on the player development of their prospects in order to improve.
Players such as Eric Bledsoe, Markieff Morris and Marcus Morris were all just signed to contract extensions, and the hope is that now they will live up to those new salaries.
Even younger prospects such as Alex Len and Archie Goodwin will be expected to evolve into, at the very least, solid role players.
This year's roster has almost as many question marks as last year's and could plausibly end up almost anywhere in the Western Conference standings, depending on whether the team takes a step forward, a step back or even remains stagnant. With so many unknowns, it's hard to make a reliable record prediction.
But even so, the team's goal is clear: Establish a winning culture in Phoenix, and start by making the playoffs.
Biggest Question Mark
Can Miles Plumlee and Alex Len realistically anchor the center position?
It's no secret that the Suns have one of the deepest backcourts in the NBA. However, their frontcourt is a much greater issue, and specifically the center position.
This season, the two main centers will be Miles Plumlee and Alex Len, with Shavlik Randolph and potentially Earl Barron on reserve duty.
Though Plumlee had a breakout campaign with the Suns last year, he struggled in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, he averaged just 20.2 minutes per game despite being the starting center, perhaps a sign that Jeff Hornacek gradually lost faith in him.
On top of that, he lost some of the aggressive edge that we saw in the first few months of the season, and his block numbers plummeted.
Then there's Len, the fifth overall pick of the 2013 draft who played only 42 games in his rookie season due to ankle injuries and posted a PER of 7.3.
First of all, there's the major question of whether or not Len can even stay healthy. If he can't, the Suns may have to rely on Randolph as a backup center. While Randolph is an above-average rebounder and has improved his range, he does not have the reputation of being a reliable role player.
Perhaps Hornacek would also be forced to play Markieff Morris at center often, which would be a nightmare defensively.
But even if Len stays healthy, how much of an impact will he have? Can he improve on his unsightly numbers from last year?
The Suns are relying heavily on Plumlee and Len to hold their ground against other frontcourts. Though neither young center will be needed for too much scoring—the guards can handle that—the Suns need both players to be physical, aggressive and defensive-minded.
And if they can't provide that, making the playoffs in a conference with so many good frontcourt duos will be tough.
Best Five
Dragic, Bledsoe, Tucker, Markieff Morris, Plumlee
This is the projected starting five for the season, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that it could be the team's best lineup. And while the second unit is incredibly deep and has some fantastic scorers, it lacks the defensive talent that is found in the starting lineup.
For some reason, a myth that still persists about the Phoenix Suns is that they don't play defense.
Last season, according to NBA.com/Stats, there were 29 five-man lineups that logged at least 300 minutes together.
Out of those 29 lineups, the starting lineup of Bledsoe, Dragic, P.J. Tucker, Channing Frye and Plumlee ranked first with a defensive rating of 93.1.
Now, replace Frye with Markieff Morris, and you have this season's starting lineup.
With Plumlee acting as a decent shot-blocker, and Bledsoe and Tucker acting as two elite perimeter defenders, the Suns' starting lineup was fantastic defensively.
Replace Markieff Morris or Plumlee with a frontcourt defensive upgrade, and the Suns could earn a reputation as an elite defensive team in the future.
And don't forget the importance of offensive firepower, either. The aforementioned lineup put up an offensive rating of 105.4 last season.
And while Markieff Morris is not quite the floor spacer Frye was, he has an above-average mid-range jump shot and a serviceable three-point shot that still allows the two starting guards to penetrate and kick out if necessary. Plus, Markieff is the superior post-up player and rebounder over Frye.
Youth Movement
The Suns have a few rookies this season. They drafted T.J. Warren 14th, Tyler Ennis 18th and brought in Zoran Dragic from overseas.
Of those three up-and-comers, Warren should have the greatest chance of making a serious impact.
There's plenty of hype surrounding Warren, and it's all fueled by his fantastic performance in the summer league.
In five games and 24.8 minutes per game, Warren averaged 17.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game while shooting 54 percent from the field. He scored more than players with NBA experience, such as Goodwin and Plumlee.
Summer league production is no guarantee at success, but it is a promising sign. And now, in the preseason, Warren continues to impress.
Though he is playing limited minutes in the preseason, Warren is averaging 5.0 points and 2.4 rebounds in 12.2 minutes per game on 50 percent shooting from the field.
Another huge factor for him is roster depth. Warren is not the victim of a positional logjam, like Goodwin, Ennis and Zoran Dragic are.
Even the two talented small forwards ahead of him, Tucker and Marcus Morris, are not much of an issue. After all, Marcus may play a lot of minutes at power forward this season, backing up his brother.
If Warren plays well, the minutes will come. He won't win Rookie of the Year, but he has a very promising future. For now, he has to focus on recovering from a fractured thumb, an injury that should keep him out for at least a few weeks.
Team Award Predictions
Team MVP: Eric Bledsoe
Not Goran Dragic?
Dragic has played well during the preseason, and I wouldn't expect much regression from him. He will continue to be a great player.
However, if healthy, this could be the season that Bledsoe lives up to his new contract and establishes himself as an elite point guard.
Bledsoe has been fantastic in the preseason. In six games, he's averaging 23.5 MPG, 15.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 0.8 BPG and 1.2 SPG (stats compiled from this game log). He has shot 57 percent from the field and 50 percent from three-point range. He looks ready to take the NBA by storm.
Also keep in mind that Bledsoe is by far the best defender out of all of the guards on the roster. Dragic is only considered average, and Gerald Green and Thomas might actually be considered defensive liabilities. Bledsoe is the best all-around player.
In a crowded backcourt, Bledsoe may not get the playing time needed for him to put up career-high stats. However, pay close attention to his shooting efficiency and advanced stats, as those may skyrocket.
Biggest X-Factor: Markieff Morris
It will be Morris' first year as a starter, and he will be the only new face in the starting lineup. A major concern going into this season is that the Suns will struggle on offense without Frye to space the floor and make threes.
Morris, a career 33 percent three-point shooter, can certainly make a three-pointer occasionally, but he does not shoot them with the same efficiency or at the same frequency as Frye did.
However, in almost every other aspect of the game, Morris looks superior to Frye. And one can only hope that the power forward has gotten even better over the summer. After all, this is only his fourth NBA season.
Markieff is now the Suns' best big man, and he will have a lot of responsibility. If the Suns need scoring down low, he will have to step up. That will prove to be more difficult against starters than it was against bench players.
Yet overall, Markieff seems to be ready to battle with all of the big boys of the West. He averaged 18.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, and there's no reason that he can't take another step forward in his fourth NBA season.
It seems reasonable to predict that he'll play about 30 minutes per game, and there's no reason why he can't average around 15 points and seven or eight rebounds per game in that time.
He still has a long way until he can be considered an All-Star, but Markieff is not a player to scoff at. He could establish himself as an above-average power forward within the next few years.
He is enough of a force in the frontcourt to keep the Suns from being held back. Soon, his $8 million salary may seem like an absolute steal.
Most Surprising Bench Player: Shavlik Randolph
I'm going to take a wild guess and predict that neither Len nor Plumlee will play 82 games this season. There will be some injuries, either minor or major, along the way.
And when that happens, Randolph's name will be called.
In five preseason games so far, the 30-year-old Randolph has averaged 2.8 points and 2.8 rebounds in 11.8 minutes per game. That's 8.5 points and rebounds per 36 minutes.
That may be nothing special, but it means that Randolph is a good option to insert into the lineup if the Suns need rebounding. For his career, Randolph has averaged 10.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
But he contributed rebounding last year. The real reason Randolph will surprise everyone is because he has an improved jumper. He has made two threes in the preseason on two attempts, as well as a couple of mid-range jump shots.
Randolph is hovering around the perimeter on offense with confidence in his shot. If he can space the floor at center while rebounding as well as Plumlee or Len, he will make himself very valuable and is sure to get minutes.
Technical Foul King: P.J. Tucker
In case you haven't noticed, the Suns tend to complain to the refs. A lot. And as a result, they are hit with technical fouls. Often.
Last season, the Suns had four players ranked in the top 40 in technical fouls. Goran Dragic had seven, Green had nine and Tucker and Markieff Morris were tied with 12 (and both were ejected once).
Newcomer Isaiah Thomas also ranked in the top 40, with nine technical fouls.
Penalizing your own team by talking back to the officials may not be a virtue, but it might be at least a bit interesting to see who will get the most this year. Will it be Markieff, who has somehow already accumulated two technical fouls in the preseason?
Something tells me it will be Tucker, the hard-headed and yet stubborn small forward who isn't afraid to be aggressive with his opponents. Just look at what he did to Blake Griffin last season.
When the Dust Settles...
The Western Conference is a tough place to thrive. The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks, two teams that fought with Phoenix for a playoff spot last season, are both better than before.
Other fresh, young teams, such as the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans, will also be looking to clinch a low playoff seed.
But between the acquisitions of Thomas and Tolliver and the expected player development of several prospects, the Suns should be better and not worse. They will be fantastic if all of their key players can stay healthy for the full season, but that is never a given.
Who will they kick out of the playoff picture? It's impossible to tell at this point. But injuries and other unexpected factors will affect someone, and the Suns will take advantage. They will not be the ninth seed two years in a row.
Win-loss prediction: 50-32, seventh in the Western Conference
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
