NASCAR at Martinsville 2014: Complete Preview and Prediction for Goody's 500
Martinsville Speedway comes at an ideal time in the season.
It's NASCAR's slowest track. But it is also the one with the most contact.
Martinsville Speedway, by definition, is where the oft-used phrase “rubbin’ is racin’” is apropos. It is also where the contact-sport element of Sprint Cup racing is on full display. If your car is “tight” (meaning it won’t turn through the corner), you just lean into the car next to you to make it through the corner.
This may not be welcome news for the eight drivers still in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. It definitely is for the rest of the 35 drivers, some of whom may have some pent-up frustrations over how their season has gone or maybe have a bit of a grudge or two left over from a previous race. For these drivers, the timing and the closeness of Martinsville are perfect.
It is under those conditions that the remaining Gang of Eight get to do battle. Among the Chase drivers, Jeff Gordon is the man to beat, with eight race wins and 3,593 laps lead.
“As far as Chase tracks, Martinsville stands out for us,” said Gordon in his pre-race media release. “It’s a strong track for this Drive to End Hunger team, and it’s a track where we’ve had great success over the years.”
It will be the rare car that survives unblemished all the way to the end of a 500-lap race at Martinsville. More often than not, it's the car that makes it into Victory Lane.
Qualifying Report
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Non-Chase driver Jamie McMurray won the pole for Sunday’s Goody’s 500 at Martinsville Speedway with a lap of 18.954 seconds, 99.905 mph.
McMurray had shown speed earlier in the day. He was the fastest non-Chase driver (fourth) in the day’s only practice session.
The Chip Ganassi Racing driver credited his team’s recent test session at Martinsville for his newfound speed.
“I thought we had a really good test,” McMurrary told a live television audience in a post-qualifying interview. “Keith (Rodden, crew chief) and Josh (Sell, Engineer) just did a really good job adjusting on the car. It’s amazing you can go quicker your second time out. For years we came here to these places and ran slower.”
Current points leader Joey Logano’s lap of 19.011 seconds, 99.605 mph puts him alongside McMurray on the front row. Row two is Matt Kenseth, still winless and Tony Stewart. Denny Hamlin rounds out the top five.
Kyle Larson (16th) is the highest starting rookie.
Notable starts: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer start seventh through 12th, respectively. Jeff Gordon (13th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (23rd) and Danica Patrick (30th).
Gordon, who was the fastest driver in practice, blamed changing track conditions for his starting position.
“The track definitely freed-up for us and I was loose-in and real loose off,” Gordon told a live television audience after qualifying. “I really fought the drive off. But we can definitely still win it from there. Our car is really good.”
The green flag falls on the Goody’s 500 on Sunday, October 26 at approx. 2:18 p.m. ET.
Qualifying statistics courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications
Martinsville Speedway and the Goody's 500: Facts and Figures
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The .525-mile Martinsville Speedway is one of NASCAR’s original tracks. Built in 1949, its tight confines make it one of the Sprint Cup circuit’s most difficult tracks to master.
The tight turns at each end of the track are where the race is won or lost. The driver whose car can best enter and exit those turns will emerge victorious.
Throughout the race, you’ll hear drivers complain of “no forward bite” because their car can’t exit the turn properly. Or you'll hear them talk about being “loose in,” meaning that the back end of the race car wants to swap ends as they dive into the corner at full speed with one foot solidly planted on the brake pedal.
Martinsville is a challenge for crew chiefs as they work throughout the afternoon to keep their driver happy with his or her car.
The track is known for late-race restarts and last-lap finishes. Martinsville, while not as unpredictable as Talladega, is another test of survival for the Chase drivers.
Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500
Where: Martinsville Speedway
When: Sunday, October 26
The Time: Green flag is approx. 1:43 p.m. (ET)
TV: ESPN, Countdown begins at 1 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN), Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 263 miles (500 laps)
Key Storylines
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This is When It All Gets Real
With only three races left to decide who gets to race for the championship, everybody has to step his game up to the next level. Any kind of minor mistake from now until Homestead could be a fatal one.
“I feel like we’re to the point now where the law of averages is on our side,” Talladega winner Brad Keselowski said in his team’s pre-race media release. “That and the team—our confidence in our ability to work hard, to execute, to count on each other—we’re in a special place.”
It’s that special place that wins championships. Martinsville is a real test of patience and desire. You need both to win.
Spoiler Alert
Some of the sport’s best drivers are no longer in the Chase.
Led by Jimmie Johnson, along with Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch and rookie Kyle Larson, these drivers aren't going to just let the remaining Chase drivers drive past them. They will make them work for every position.
And heaven help the Chase driver who comes up on one of these non-Chasers with a good car running in the top five. It will be like hitting a brick wall.
The drivers already listed, along guys like with Jamie McMurray, rookie Austin Dillon and Clint Bowyer, will all be fighting for spots in the top 10 Sunday afternoon.
Doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for the eight Chase drivers, does it?
Revenge is a Dish Best Served on a Short Track
It may be payback time Sunday for a number of drivers with a score to settle. Whether it is Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin settling up with Brad Keselowski from Charlotte or any one of a half-dozen or so potential issues that we may not even be aware of, Martinsville is the track for payback.
It’s easy at Martinsville to give a driver a little push into another driver’s left rear quarter panel and then watch him go crashing into the outside wall.
When you see a driver spinning around and into the wall, it’s not likely because his race car is a bit on the loose side. It means he’s probably had a little help from his friends.
Martinsville is a track where patience is often in short supply and payback can be instantaneous. Fortunately, the slower speeds usually mean wrecked race cars and not any serious injuries.
How About the Tires?
Three years ago, Goodyear had serious tire problems at Martinsville. Since then, there have been several tire tests on the .526-mile track. There were no serious incidents in the spring race.
Goodyear will bring a new tire for Sunday’s race at Martinsville. In this day and age of extreme loads being placed on the tire in the corner and radical front-end geometry presenting even more stress on the tire, there can never be a real guarantee that there won’t be tire issues.
With no aerodynamic support with which to help them set up their race car, crew chiefs will have to rely on their mechanical-grip "bag of tricks" to give their driver what he or she needs to be fast in and out of the corner.
Expect drivers to complain about being “loose in” and “tight off” for much of the afternoon. And about halfway into the race, they’ll start complaining about a “lack of forward bite.” These are all issues with the car’s chassis setup.
With few tools at his disposal during the race, a crew chief will first turn to tire air pressures to solve most problems. This will unfortunately put more stress on an already overstressed part of the car’s suspension.
The team with the fewest setup problems will not only have a stress-free afternoon, but it is likely to finish the afternoon enjoying the view from Victory Lane.
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Top Contenders
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Kevin Harvick
Harvick's win at Charlotte was his toughest race of the season. He’s got just one career win at Martinsville but a dozen top-10 finishes. Don’t bet against Harvick for these next three races. This is his year.
Brad Keselowski
Martinsville just might be at the top of Keselowski's "worst tracks" list. He's not been good here, with only one top-five in nine starts. But then, this isn't the Keselowski of old. Nor are these the Penske cars of old. The No. 2 team will be in the thick of things from the first practice Friday.
Jeff Gordon
Gordon shares the title of "Mr. Martinsville" with Johnson. Both drivers have eight wins, and there's been many a race where the two have battled it out in the final laps for the race win. Gordon has more to lose, and that means he'll be even tougher to beat and even more ruthless than in the past 32 races.
Joey Logano
The winner at Kansas and Loudon, Logano doesn’t consider Martinsville among his better tracks. But that was before 2014, as he is now winning at places he hasn’t been good at before. If his car is good, watch out.
Kurt Busch
His win here in the spring race put the No. 41 team into the Chase. Busch is usually very good here. A change in crew chiefs will make him better. Tony Gibson’s talents may be better suited to Busch's style and likely to produce very positive results for the veteran driver.
Potential Chase Spoiler: Jimmie Johnson
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Wait a minute!
Shouldn’t Johnson be on the previous slide? The Top Contenders one?
He used to be there, but now, as a non-Chase driver, he’s at the top of the short list of drivers who are potential spoilers—for the rest of the season.
Forget that Johnson has eight wins and three poles, along with 18 top-fives and 22 top-10 finishes at Martinsville. Did you think the guys on the No. 48 team were just going to roll over and play dead? Not this group. Johnson has won two of the last five Martinsville races.
You want a spoiler? This is your guy.
And the Winner Is...
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Jeff Gordon
You couldn’t pick a better spot for Gordon to have the first of four final races toward his fifth title. Martinsville has been one of the best tracks of his career. It suits his aggressive yet precise style of racing, which works well on a short track.
Although Gordon struggled a bit in the spring race, it was due to him getting used to the new ride height rules.
“I think any time the teams find more speed in the car it changes slightly on finding that limit of the car," Gordon said during his media availability before the Martinsville spring race. "Whether it’s rolling out of the brakes sooner or getting on the gas sooner or harder, or not slowing the car down as much getting in the corner. Those type of things."
Gordon has gotten used to "those type of things" now, and four race wins later, he's doing some of the best racing of his career.
If there was one race in the Chase that Gordon had circled on his calendar, this was it. It is to be his ticket into the season finale.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
Bob Margolis is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association and has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, the NHRA and Sports Cars for more than two decades as a writer, television producer and on-air talent.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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