Vikings vs. Buccaneers: Breaking Down Minnesota's Game Plan

The Minnesota Vikings head to sunny Tampa to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, a throwback to the nostalgic days of the NFC Central. 

This game may have a little added motivation, at least for bitter Vikings fans. Former head coach Leslie Frazier is the defensive coordinator of the Buccaneers under former Chicago Bears head coach Lovie Smith. Safe to say, some incentives for the Vikings to win this game may be tacked on.

Both teams are stuck in the doldrums at this point of the season. Minnesota sits in the cellar of the NFC North at 2-5 and the Bucs at the bottom of the NFC South at 1-5. The winner's season stays afloat with a win on Sunday, but the loser's sinks for good.

Beyond playing a full 60-minute game, which they failed to do in Buffalo, these are the keys to victory for the Vikings.

Stay Aggressive in the Passing Game

When the offense achieved success through the air in Buffalo, it was a result of offensive coordinator Norv Turner not retreating into his shell after the pair of early interceptions. Teddy Bridgewater may make mistakes. That doesn’t mean he cannot attack defenses downfield or that more mistakes are bound to follow.

Aggressive play-calling allowed Bridgewater to convert on a number of 3rd-and-long passes after those two interceptions. He kept pulling the trigger, attacking downfield with success.

	To Go	Gained	Depth of Target
Success	7	38	34
Failure	7	5	5
Success	18	28	28
Success	10	14	8
Success	8	13	8

Out of those third-down throws, all of which happened to occur in 3rd-and-long situations, the success throwing farther downfield is clear. On the one third-down failure in which Bridgewater threw the ball, his depth of target was only five yards. Each conversion was thrown beyond that, with two of them thrown beyond 25 yards.

This is all about staying true to what the offense does. The mantra of Turner's offense is to be aggressive downfield with first reads, looking to rip off big gains.

Mistakes are bound to happen with the rookie quarterback. But when the Vikings stayed true to their aggressive mentality through the air last week, the results were tremendous in some pressure-packed spots. That can continue in Tampa Bay.

Beat the Tampa 2

Under head coach Smith and D-coordinator Frazier, the Tampa 2 is once again a staple in the city where it earned its name.

Every one of the Vikings players who were in the fold last year will have a full awareness of what the Tampa 2 entails. It’s a zone-coverage defense that is a slight tweak from the Cover 2 in that it tasks the "Mike" linebacker with deep middle coverage.

Its goal is often to force quarterbacks to check the ball down and then corral ball-carriers to limit yardage. The “bend but don’t break” philosophy is one Vikings fans will be familiar with.

Even with the defense’s conservative stance, it has soft spots downfield that quarterbacks can attack. With aggressive routes, the Vikings can beat the Tampa 2 with a couple of different route combinations they have recently shown.

Four verticals are a stable in Turner’s offense. The combination floods the deep areas of the field with go routes, putting stress on the safeties. Against the Tampa 2, outside cornerbacks may not carry deep routes and the Mike linebacker is put under extra stress against better athletes over the middle.

Corner routes that find the bubble between underneath cornerbacks and the safeties, somewhere between 15 and 25 yards near the sideline, can also pull apart the Tampa 2.

Baltimore was able to turn a red-zone trip into a touchdown with this throw against the Tampa 2 two weeks ago, going after the player with the most difficult job in the defense, the Mike linebacker:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Joe Flacco was able to manipulate the Mike linebacker with his eyes. With the underneath route taking the attention of the outside linebacker, all the quarterback had to do was move the Mike 'backer from the throwing lane and then deliver.

Bridgewater has the eye discipline to disguise where he wants to go with the football. If he does it well against the zone looks the Bucs will go to, he can help himself out.

That inside linebacker in the Tampa 2, who is Mason Foster for the Bucs, has a difficult job because of how deep he is required to drop. Even in the red-zone shot, he’s dropping deeper than other linebackers. When offenses have more room to operate, he can occasionally be forced to drop up to 25 yards to defend the deep middle of the field.

Offenses that utilize play action effectively can give the Tampa Bay linebackers a tough time because of their zone-coverage responsibilities.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Bridgewater will have opportunities to attack zone looks with downfield passing on Sunday. Certain route combinations can help him pull that off along with the utilization of play-action passing.

When it comes to red-zone work, the rookie will have to be especially sharp in the way he disguises his intentions with eye movement and then in the way he releases the ball with anticipation. Windows will close quicker with less of the field to work with.

Expect Infrequent Blitzing

One of the features of a Frazier-led defense is reliance on the four defensive linemen to get pressure without the aid of excessive blitzing.

Last year’s Vikings defense, closely monitored by Frazier, only blitzed 22.05 percent of defensive plays, according to Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus. The unit finished No. 27 in the league in blitz percentage, evidence of its dislike of exotic blitzes.

Over a 2010-to-2012 sampling, the Bears defense, led by Lovie Smith, was No. 25 in blitz percentage, per Neil Hornsby of Pro Football Focus. Neither defensive mind is especially keen on blitzing at a high rate.

For the Minnesota offensive line, that will hopefully decrease the mental workload and sharpen the pass-protection technique and communication in run blocking. Frazier doesn’t try to outthink offenses, and he won’t be throwing the kitchen sink at the Minnesota offensive line this week, even if that may be the best course of action.

Kalil, Loadholt and the interior offensive line should play faster mentally and hold up against a defensive line with the 22nd-best sack rate in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders.

Bridgewater should be more comfortable in the pocket and have more opportunities to work two or three reads on a single throw. All of that should lead to big yardage against a Tampa Bay defense that has succumbed to quality quarterback play in 2014.

Keep Eyes Up, Get to the Second Level and Locate Lavonte David

Tampa Bay may have the league’s premier destroyer of running games in linebacker Lavonte David. Even as the defense around him has crumbled at different points in 2014, David has been tremendous.

Pro Football Focus provides some telling statistics related to his defending of the run:

"

DeAndre Levy & Lavonte David lead the league with 25 defensive stops against the run. One more than Paul Worrilow in third.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 20, 2014"

"

With 10 tackles for a loss Lavonte David leads league. DeAndre Levy second with 9 & rookies Aaron Donald/ Khalil Mack third with 7

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 21, 2014"

David is athletic, physical and highly instinctive, all traits that make for one of the league’s best linebackers.

Extra awareness from Minnesota run-blockers is important in order to keep David out of the backfield, where he can wreak havoc on plays and derail an entire offensive drive.

The recent increase in zone blocking adds responsibilities to run-blockers in locating linebackers and being ready for run blitzes. David appears in the correct spots to make stops much quicker than an average NFL linebacker.

David will line up in a few different positions for the Bucs. At times he plays on the weak side of the offensive formation, away from the tight end. He stays on the field in the nickel package, where Frazier will occasionally line him up on the line of scrimmage with the option to rush. Primarily, he plays on the strong side behind the 3-technique defensive tackle.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Two keys will help the Vikings’ offensive line and tight ends corral David in the running game.

The first is to play with their eyes up, keeping track of the movements of second-level defenders while making initial blocks. Running inside zone, two blockers will usually combo the defender on the line of scrimmage up to the linebacker as seen here:

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Linemen must keep their eyes up to track the movements of the linebackers and pick up run blitzes or aggressive run fits. Slow reactions to David’s movements will get Minnesota backs hit in the hole by the heat-seeking missile that wears No. 54.

The other key is to aggressively move up the field, closing down space with David to help increase the size of holes in the interior running game. When the Vikings try to run around the outside, giving David free reign to pursue over the top of run plays will get ball-carriers run down in a hurry.

If Minnesota’s offensive line can address David, it can have success against an underperforming Tampa Bay front and the entire offense can hit on all cylinders.

Up the Blitzes

Mike Zimmer’s defense is not especially reliant on blitzing by its nature. Over the three-season sample, 2010 to 2012, his Cincinnati team fell in the lower half of defenses in blitz percentage, per Hornsby and Pro Football Focus. Last year, the Bengals were all the way down to No. 26, per Jahnke and Pro Football Focus.

There are a few reasons why Zimmer should use more blitzes against the Bucs in Week 7. The first is quarterback Mike Glennon.

This description of his weaknesses as a collegiate prospect two years ago, from NFL.com, sums up the poor way he deals with pressure:

"

His average foot quickness will cause him issues trying to avoid defenders in a collapsing pocket. Tends to retreat instead of stepping up to deliver in the face of pressure -- though his arm gives him a chance to get the ball out of bounds or find an open target while still backpedalling.

And while he has the arm and tight spiral to threaten defenses with the deep ball, his inconsistent accuracy and reading of coverages keep him from being efficient in the vertical game.

"

2014 statistics point to his continued issues dealing with the rush, especially when opponents blitz.

	Comp. %	YPA	TD:INT	Sacks/Att
No Blitz	63.8%	7.3	4:0	6.3%
Blitz	48.4%	6.5	3:3	6.5%

Contrast that with how the last five quarterbacks Minnesota has faced, Kyle Orton, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees, and it’s clear that blitz utilization must increase this week.

	Comp. %	YPA	TD:INT	Sacks/Att
No Blitz	67.2%	7.3	36:21	5.5%
Blitz	60.4%	8.2	20:3	10.2%

Some of the recent quarterbacks Minnesota has seen have actually been better against the blitz than not in 2014. As a whole, though, the five listed clearly handle the blitz better than Glennon does.

The Tampa Bay offensive line does him few favors either. According to Football Outsiders, they sit at No. 24 in the NFL in adjusted sack percentage. The unit grades out at No. 27 via Pro Football Focus premium statistics (subscription required). Glennon and his porous offensive line split the blame in Tampa Bay’s issues in handling the rush.

All the right indicators should be telling the Vikings that blitzing the Bucs more often than they have blitzed in the past few weeks will be advantageous.

Keep Twisting

Last week was one of Minnesota’s most productive rushing the passer. Some of that is due to an overmatched Buffalo offensive line. Tampa Bay's unit figures to be similarly less talented.

The Vikings dug a little deeper into the bag of tricks by utilizing a number of twists in the pass-rushing plan, which tormented Orton and the Buffalo Bills for the majority of the game. A couple of different types of twists helped the Vikings bring consistent pressure.

First, let’s look at a linebacker-end stunt where Anthony Barr blitzes as the first man through.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The rushing linebacker takes a direct route to the inside hip of the tackle, essentially setting a pick for Everson Griffen to loop around him to the inside.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Barr was able to knock the tackle off balance and free up Griffen. All the while this was happening, the back became confused with who he should pick up, and Barr was also able to come free as a rusher and hurry a throw from Orton.

Then later in the second quarter, the Vikings stunted with both tackles, chasing Orton from the pocket and into the waiting grasp of Griffen for a sack.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

In similar fashion, Tom Johnson strikes the right shoulder of the center, and Sharrif Floyd loops around him. Because the right guard is taught to pass off the first rusher to the center and pick up the second rusher, Johnson is actually the one who slides through and hurries Orton.

Combinations of blitzes, stunts or both will keep the Buccaneers' offensive line guessing and keep Glennon’s focus on eluding the rush and keeping himself upright.

Lock Down Vincent Jackson

At 29 percent, Buccaneers receiver Vincent Jackson has the largest share of his team’s targets of any receiver Minnesota has faced this year aside from Jordy Nelson.

As they continuously shift offensive sets, the Buccaneers will move their best receiver around the formation. He leads Tampa Bay in routes run from the slot with 72, which is 32 percent of his total number of routes run, per Pro Football Focus premium statistics.

In past weeks, the Vikings have doubled primary receivers on occasion by using safety Harrison Smith in underneath coverage.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Most of these plays occur in third-down situations, so Smith plays on the edge and disguises his coverage as a blitz. Then when the quarterback receives the snap, he retreats and gets underneath the receiver, dissuading a throw.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Against Tampa Bay, this technique would be useful for Minnesota to force Glennon off his favorite receiver. Bracketing as shown pairs well with blitzes, too, because if the doubled receiver is the quarterback's hot route, he may not have time to come off him and work to another target.

The tricky part of covering the Bucs receivers is that the offense pairs the 6’5” Jackson with another 6’5” receiver, rookie Mike Evans.

That may change the way Minnesota addresses the situation. Xavier Rhodes measures in at over 6’1”, but the Vikings lack height at the cornerback position elsewhere. These bracket coverages on one side usually mean man coverage on the other, maybe with a single-high safety. If Jackson works from the left side of the formation, leaving Rhodes to handle the receiver is a better course of action on a regular basis.

Helping Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Robinson would produce better results. Both have major size disadvantages against Jackson and Evans.

Start Fast

In three of the last four games, Tampa Bay has fallen behind in the first quarter and gone on to lose. Two of those were absolute routes.

Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times and Jeff Duncan of NOLA.com provide some details from the Buccaneers’ pitiful first-quarter showings:

"

Bucs' 28-point deficit to Ravens after first quarter matches worst in ANY game since NFL/AFL merger. Bills led Chiefs 31-0 after 1Q in 1964.

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 12, 2014"

"

#Saints dominated the first quarter, outgaining the #Bucs 155-30 and 7-1 in first downs

— Jeff Duncan (@JeffDuncan_) October 5, 2014"

"

First-quarter Bucs-Falcons summary is amazing. Atlanta up 21-0, outgained Bucs 169-19. Tampa Bay three turnovers. ATL 12 1st downs, TB 0.

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) September 19, 2014"

Minnesota has drawn criticism for the team’s inability to finish out what should have been a victory in Buffalo. A better course of action in Tampa Bay will be to jump out to a bigger lead and ice it from there. The Bucs have shown a tendency for slow starts, so an early lead might be there for the taking.

All these key pieces combine to create what should be a competitive game, but it's one the Vikings have the talent to go out and win.