UFC 179 Bold Predictions: Can Chad Mendes Take out the Featherweight GOAT?

As a recently disgraced UFC broadcaster might say, here we go.

After months of injury delays and one canceled pay-per-view—RIP UFC 176!—Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes will finally rematch on Saturday at UFC 179.

Much has transpired since their first semi-controversial meeting back in January of 2012. Mendes has embarked on a crazy K/TKO rampage while Aldo (seemingly always ailing from some injury) has fallen off the radar a bit.

Around them, the 145-pound division has suddenly grown more interesting than ever with the arrival of Conor McGregor and the emergence of guys like Cub Swanson and Dennis Bermudez. Whoever wins this one will be set for some big fights and maybe some big paydays, too.

Unfortunately, UFC 179 falls off precipitously after the championship main event. The co-main pits Phil Davis against Glover Teixeira in a fight that shapes up as a must-win for both guys.

After that...yeah, it gets pretty bleak.

Nonetheless, MMA lead writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden have predictions. Bold ones. Do you have what it takes to come along for the ride?

Prediction: Chad Mendes Gets It Done the Second Time Around

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Chad: Much has been written about the "cage grab heard 'round the world" at UFC 142. I can't claim to know if Jose Aldo grasping onto the chain link to stop Chad Mendes' late takedown attempt did much to affect the outcome of their first fight. Maybe it did, maybe it didn't. All we know is that immediately after it, Aldo wheeled on Mendes and knocked him out with one second left before the end of the first round.

A pretty cold way to go out.

Far less time has been spent parsing out the rest of that fight, where Mendes actually did a decent job holding his own with Aldo. The American wrestler failed miserably on all of his takedown attempts but didn't fare too poorly in the stand-up exchanges. He lashed Aldo with leg kicks and did a decent job avoiding damage from the technically superior champion.

Until, you know.

Since then, Mendes has only gotten better, wracking up four stoppage victories during five straight wins. Aldo, meanwhile, has merely gone on being Aldo. His string of eight consecutive defenses of the 145-pound title ends on Saturday night, as Mendes proves good enough—just barely—to squeak out a decision win.

Jonathan: Aldo hasn't lost a fight in almost nine years. Seventeen fights. Seventeen wins. Considering how difficult MMA is, how numerous the ways to lose and how small the margin of error, that's a bit of a miracle.

But all good things must end, and signs of his potential decline are all around. He looked surprisingly human in a win over the average Ricardo Lamas last year. A neck injury held him out of the Mendes fight in July, forcing the UFC to cancel just its second event of the Zuffa era. That followed a broken foot in 2013, which sidelined the champion for months, and a previous neck injury that slowed him down in 2010.

The human body can only withstand so much punishment. And though he's just 28 years old, Aldo has packed a lot of wear and tear into his short life, including a decade's worth of prizefights and training.

If he does lose to Mendes, and I think Chad is right that his namesake will triumph, it will be kind of a shame. For years, Aldo has built this division. Finally, thanks to Conor McGregor, a money fight is around the bend. If it ends up going to Mendes because he pulls off the upset, that would be a minor tragedy in a sport full of bad breaks.

Prediction: Phil Davis Makes Us Love Him

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Jonathan: It feels like, collectively as a fandom, we've been waiting a long time for Phil Davis to make a grand gesture, to sweep us off our proverbial feet. On the surface, there's a lot to love about Davis. His broad shoulders and tapered waist speak for themselves. His 2008 NCAA national wrestling championship at 197 pounds, to continue our metaphor, makes him a fighter you can take home to mom.

But every time Davis has been set to wow us, every time we expect him to pop the question, he comes back covered in glitter and smelling like somebody else's perfume. Against Rashad Evans, he was outwrestled and outthought. Against Anthony Johnson, he seemed timid and disinterested. Even in victory against Lyoto Machida, he looked like a fighter on a blind date—nervous and scared to make a mistake.

Now 30 years old, Davis is no longer a prospect. If he's going to make his mark in this sport, now is the time. I think he can do it. Look for Davis to drag Glover Teixeira to the mat and make an example of him. If not, he's a loss or two away from one-night stands with the Legacy Fightings and World Series of Fightings of the world. And nobody wants that.

Chad: Davis' standing in the light heavyweight division morphed from wildly optimistic to inert to grim at jaw-dropping speed. It feels like just yesterday, he was choking out Alexander Gustafsson and making up revolutionary submissions to force a concession out of Tim Boetsch.

Back in those days, Davis shaped up as a potential candidate to give Jon Jones a run for his money if he could just keep improving at such a rapid rate. Somewhere in there, though, it appeared that Davis' skills stagnated. His stand-up is still sort of a mess, and it's been a long time since he looked truly dominant against anyone of any significance.

Ordinarily, a 12-2-1 record with losses to Evans and Johnson wouldn't foster such desperation, but Jon's right to label this an important crossroads for Davis. Unfortunately, I'm not quite as bullish about the future of our relationship with the guy. I think this fight will be useful mostly as a barometer for the 22-3 Teixeira.

The Brazilian wins this via tepid unanimous decision—proving he really is better than he looked during a brutal loss to Jones in April. Davis' contender status will be gone for good, but due to the relative shallow nature of the 205-pound class, he'll keep his job.

Prediction: Neil Magny Wins, Prompting Even More Ridiculous Talk

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Chad: Neil Magny has been pretty good this year. As you may have heard, the former season 16 contestant of The Ultimate Fighter has put together several straight wins during 2014. Four to be exact.

On Saturday night, he'll try to make it five against William Macario at UFC 179.

Now, don't feel bad if you haven't heard of Macario, the TUF: Brazil 2 finalist who is currently 1-1 in the Octagon. His relative anonymity really just makes him another fitting opponent for Magny.

As good as it's been, Magny's 2014 has been contested largely against no-name talent. Keep that in mind while people are trying to tell you he should be a viable candidate for Fighter of the Year. He'll beat Macario on Saturday, and that will no doubt lead to even more ridiculous talk about how good he's been. But the proper response will be merely to nod and shrug.

Jonathan: Magny is an interesting case study in how little a certain subset of MMA fans knows or cares about level of competition. I think most fans, intuitively, get that beating Georges St-Pierre is an entirely different kind of accomplishment than beating George Sotiropoulos.

A handful, however, don't grasp this kind of obvious distinction. That's how you end up with talk of Neil Magny as "historic" or "Fighter of the Year." The truth is, Neil Magny is the same guy who lost last year to Sergio Moraes and Seth Baczynski. And until he beats someone who matters, he'll continue to be that guy—no matter how many lesser lights he beats up.

Prediction: Gilbert Burns Will Be a Ray of Light on a Gloomy Undercard

Jonathan: It's hard to muster up the energy to complain too loudly about UFC 179's abysmal prelims. A weak undercard is now the rule—a card stacked top to bottom with good fights would be quite the exception.

The truly hardcore, however, will recognize at least one name on the Fight Pass portion of the program—former World Jiu-Jitsu champion Gilbert Burns. The 28-year old grappler has been in Miami working hard on his stand-up game with the Blackzilians, home of the amazing striking coach, Henri Hooft. Burns has one part of the fight game down pat. If he can quickly establish a baseline proficiency standing, this could be the last time he's relegated to the deep undercard.

In the old days, nearly every UFC card featured a future Hall of Famer. Today, that's rarely the case. Often, the opening acts are only quasi-professionals—part-time fighters with big dreams but little talent. This guy is different. In Burns, you could at the very least be watching the birth of a UFC regular. In 2014, that means something.

Chad: I suppose it speaks volumes about UFC 179's depth that we have four total predictions to make about this card and we're going to spend one of them talking about a guy participating in the second fight of the night. A fight that will be witnessed by tens and tens of MMA fans all over the world when it airs live on the Fight Pass.

But Jon is right about Gilbert Burns. Despite the fact that his name sounds like somebody typed "generate name for generic MMA fighter" into Google, he shouldn't be ignored. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champ with an undefeated record (8-0, including seven stoppages) and a major MMA camp behind him? That's enough to make me take notice.

Burns is fighting Christos Giagos, a 10-2 fighter without his own Wikipedia page, but a guy who's been kicking around the upper echelon of the independent circuit for the last year or two. He hasn't gone the distance since 2011, and most recently, he KO'd Dakota Cochrane with a flying knee at RFA 17 in August.

So I guess what I'm saying is, fun fight alert!

Also, the computer tells me Burns' nickname—"Durinho"—loosely translates to mean "tough" in English. That's right, the guy's nickname is just the word "tough."

I have no complaints.