Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The New York Jets own the upper hand in the recent rivalry with the Buffalo Bills, winning seven of the last nine matchups straight up (SU) and going 6-3 against the spread (ATS).

And the home team has won the last five meetings in this series while going 4-1 ATS. The (1-6) Jets host the (4-3) Bills Sunday afternoon in New Jersey, hoping Buffalo's money-losing divisional road trend continues (they are 3-15 SU visiting AFC East foes since 2008).

Point spread: The Jets opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.9-15.4 Bills

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills are coming off a 17-16 victory at home over Minnesota, winning on a Kyle Orton-to-Sammy Watkins touchdown pass with one second left on the clock. Buffalo outgained the Vikings 373-276, but four turnovers hampered its efforts. In his third start since taking over at quarterback for EJ Manuel, Orton hit on 31 of 43 throws and converted on 4th-and-20 and 3rd-and-12 on the game-winning drive.

The Bills are now 2-1 with Orton as the starter. Also, while Buffalo has dropped seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, it won the last meeting last November, 37-14.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York is coming off one of its best outings of the year, a 27-25 loss at New England last Thursday night. The Jets outgained the Patriots 423-323, outrushed them 218-63 and held the ball for over 40 minutes—no wonder they covered the spread as 10-point dogs.

On the season, New York is outrushing foes by 47 yards per game, and that's a number conducive to winning games and covering spreads, considering so far this year teams that have outrushed their opponents are 72-35 SU and 73-31 ATS. The Jets also made some news this week by trading for Percy Harvin, who could provide an additional spark.

Smart Pick

The team that has won the ground battle has won six of the last nine games in this series, and with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both out of action for Buffalo, New York seems the likelier team to do so Sunday.

So the smart money in this spot resides with the Jets, the home team at the short spread.

Betting trends

• Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
• The total has gone over in four of the NY Jets' last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.