Is Nico Hulkenberg Permanently Stuck in the Formula 1 Midfield?
Earlier this week, Force India announced that Nico Hulkenberg will remain with the team for the 2015 season. The signing is a coup for the Silverstone-based team as, on talent alone, Hulkenberg should be driving for one of the top teams in the sport.
Team principal Vijay Mallya acknowledged as much in the announcement on the team's website, saying, "I am convinced he is one of the best talents on the grid and I am proud that he will continue to race in the colours of Sahara Force India."
Next year will be Hulkenberg's sixth (his fifth in a race seat) languishing on a merry-go-round that has taken him from Williams to Force India to Sauber and back to Force India. Only Toro Rosso and Lotus are missing from Hulkenberg's tour of the Formula One midfield.
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In his four F1 seasons, Hulkenberg has outscored his teammates 212 to 146, and the only teammate to finish ahead of him in the drivers' standings was Rubens Barrichello in Hulkenberg's rookie season. He has also improved his overall position in the standings each season, from 14th to 11th to 10th. This year, Hulkenberg looks set for his first top-10 finish—he is currently eighth and only Felipe Massa is within striking distance.
Last year, Hulkenberg was close to landing a drive at Lotus (back when they were still challenging for race wins), but lost out to Pastor Maldonado and his Venezuelan oil money, per the Guardian's Paul Weaver. He also narrowly missed a Ferrari drive when the team opted for a pair of former world champions in Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen, according to Auto, Motor und Sport (via NBC Sports' Luke Smith).
For 2015, it does not look like there will be any openings among the current top five teams in the constructors' standings: Mercedes, Red Bull, Williams, Ferrari and McLaren. Force India are sixth and, crucially, have the superior Mercedes engine, so Hulkenberg probably got the best seat he could for next year (assuming Lotus do not take a big leap forward in their first year with Mercedes power units).
But what about 2016? It is just speculation for now, but it is possible to foresee at least a couple openings among those top five teams.
Red Bull appear settled with two young, talented drivers in Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat, and they have shown a preference to promote from within, anyway.
Meanwhile, Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff recently said, "Our main priority is to continue with Lewis [Hamilton] and Nico [Rosberg] beyond 2015," per ESPN F1. But what if, for example, Hamilton won the championship this year and next? Would Rosberg want to stick around as a de facto No. 2 driver?
Williams and Ferrari could be facing the retirement of their veteran drivers, Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen, respectively, after next season. And McLaren have yet to settle their line-up for 2015, let alone 2016.
All that to say, there will probably be an opening or two available for Hulkenberg, should his impressive form continue. But will a team take a chance on him?
He is 27—not young in F1 terms—but that also means he has the experience the top teams are looking for. However, the recent trend has been toward younger drivers, like Kvyat and Max Verstappen, who was just 12 years old when Hulkenberg made his F1 debut in 2010.
The 2014 season started brightly for Hulkenberg with four fifth-place finishes in the first seven races (and sixth place in two others). His teammate, Sergio Perez, stole headlines, though, with a hard-earned third place in Bahrain.
As the season progressed, Force India began to struggle. Their limited budget does not allow them to compete in the development race with the free-spending teams further up the grid, and since the Austrian Grand Prix in June, neither driver has finished higher than seventh.
My Bleacher Report colleague Oliver Harden wrote last month that Hulkenberg is, "Steady rather than stunning," but that, "it is the out-of-the-blue, shock results that really make teams sit up and take notice of a driver's talent."
While I would argue that Hulkenberg holding off Hamilton, Alonso and Rosberg to finish fourth in an inferior car at last year's Korean Grand Prix was exactly that kind of shock result, it is true, as Harden notes, that the lack of a podium finish is a big hole in Hulkenberg's resume.
Is that elusive champagne shower the difference between Hulkenberg landing a top drive or not? That is difficult to say, but podium or not, Hulkenberg has more than proved his talent at the top level of motorsport.
At this point, getting one of the best race seats may just be the case of being in the right place at the right time, as Hulkenberg nearly was last season with Lotus and Ferrari. In the meantime, all he can do is keep turning in impressive drives and hoping that a seat opens for him.
If that does happen, he has already shown he is ready.
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