Jerick McKinnon Should Be Top Waiver Priority in All Fantasy Leagues

Jerick McKinnon is the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings. That sentence alone—all facts, none of those highfalutin adjectives we writer types like to throw around—makes him a valuable fantasy commodity. The NFL running back has become such a high-variance proposition that merely knowing a person will receive carries makes them valuable.

Ask anyone rolling with Trent Richardson in their flex spot. Or considering kneecapping their best friend to get Anthony Dixon, a 27-year-old with 595 career rushing yards, on the waiver wire. Or anyone who drafted Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson or Toby Gerhart. When it comes to NFL running backs, opportunity is far more important than that silly other thing (talent).

All of these things make it utterly baffling that McKinnon is available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

McKinnon gained his starting job two weeks ago. It appeared after more than a month of being better at football than Matt Asiata that someone in Minnesota got the hint. McKinnon responded by failing to score a touchdown and compiling 82 total yards, but that performance (from a fantasy perspective) was far more impressive than it had any right being. It came as part of a 17-3 Minnesota loss to the Detroit Lions, a defense that sacked Teddy Bridgewater eight times and gutted the Vikings offense until it was hollowed out.

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

That McKinnon was able to carve any fantasy value out of that game should have been a sign. But nope, dude lingered around on the waiver wire, available in more than five times as many leagues as Knowshon Moreno, who is out for the season.

And then, on Sunday, everyone kinda got the picture. The Georgia Southern product rushed for 103 yards on 19 carries—his second 100-yard game in the last four weeks—against a Bills unit that ranks among the best run defenses in football. Buffalo is third in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA and gives up the fourth-fewest yards per game to opposing teams.

His yards weren't easy ones, either. Fifty-seven of those 103 yards came after contact. For the season McKinnon ranks third in the NFL at 2.38 yards per carry after contact, per ESPN.com's Ben Goessling. Whereas Asiata continually took what his offensive line gave him—and in Minnesota this season, that's not much—McKinnon is time and again making positive results out of nothing.

"Jerick, he's a great athlete. He's a great back and he can do it all," Bridgewater told reporters. "When we're in the passing game, he'll keep plays alive if you have to check [down] the ball to him. Or in the run game, he's one of those guys who can get in and out of blocks and of tackles. He's going to be a guy that we continue to look forward to make plays for this team."

The main knock on McKinnon comes in pass protection, where he's just not very skilled at this point in his career. Minnesota will probably use Asiata on most third-down and obvious passing situations the rest of the season. 

Those other snaps? McKinnon time, baby. He has been on the field for 84 of Minnesota's 132 snaps the past two weeks, exactly double that of Asiata. 

Here is about where the running commentary starts: So a running back who is getting 60-plus percent of his team's offensive snaps is available on the waiver wire. I know the whole point of this is article is to get him on the waiver wire. I'm not stupid, dude. I read the title. How HARD should I try to get him, keeping in mind that trying is not something I, speaking on behalf of all fantasy football owners, like to do?

The answer: Try hard. Very hard. No matter what measurement we use—advanced, standard, the one where we judge a person's skill level entirely on their name—McKinnon stands out as a potential breakout candidate. 

Football Outsiders' DVOA metric ranks McKinnon first among all running backs with at least 56 carries (their number, not mine). Better than DeMarco Murray, better than Marshawn Lynch, better than everyone. While it may be unfair to cherry-pick that metric—DVOA is a per-play metric, meaning it can sometimes favor players who were better over a smaller sample—it's not as if that's the only one that says McKinnon is good.

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The Vikings back ranks ninth in DYAR, is a top-20 guy in both Pro Football Focus rushing metrics and, frankly, just looks good running the football. Spotting the vast difference in skill level between Asiata and McKinnon did not take a trained football eye. It was obvious McKinnon would eventually take this job; the only question is when the Vikings would be comfortable turning their offense over to an all-rookie backfield.

Well, we've received an answer, which is a good thing for Minnesota and fantasy owners going forward. The Vikings offense as a unit is pretty dreadful—Bridgewater, Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder have all been different tiers of terrible at quarterback so far—so it's hard to call McKinnon an RB1. Touchdowns are going to be hard to come by, and McKinnon is already without a score through his first 76 NFL touches.

But he should be a top priority in every league, especially long-term keeper formats. His volume of work and production so far make him someone who needs to be started as an RB2 or flex on a weekly basis. Not bad for a kid who thought he'd be begging for Adrian Peterson scraps heading into the season.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter