Elfrid Payton vs. Marcus Smart: Which Rookie Will Face a Tougher NBA Transition?
Elfrid Payton and Marcus Smart are the two best point guards to emerge from the college ranks in the 2014 draft, and their tools and skills suggest flourishing NBA careers.
They each achieved a heap of success as NCAA stars, and now the 20-year-olds are aiming to establish themselves as professionals. Payton will try to prove he's the cornerstone floor general for the Orlando Magic, while Marcus Smart will exert his two-way efforts for the rebuilding Boston Celtics.
Neither player is an awfully raw project in need of major development, but they both have notable deficiencies and will endure some growing pains. It's not easy being a young point man at the sport's highest level.
Which one will face a tougher transition?
College Paths
Backgrounds and college experiences can't completely determine a prospect's readiness for the NBA, but they're important factors.
Payton played mid-major hoops for three years at Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt Conference. For the most part, he dominated, averaging nearly 20 points and six assists per night his junior year. He weaved through inferior opponents and orchestrated the Ragin' Cajuns offense as a hawk-eyed passer.
It doesn't look like his time spent playing against small schools will adversely affect his ability to distribute the ball and run the Orlando Magic offense. He led all Orlando Summer League players with seven assists per game, and in preseason he's averaging 5.6 assists in 27.3 minutes per contest.
The trickier transition for him, however, will be creating and making shots and then playing high-level defense.
NBA-caliber athletes and savvy defenses are tough to score against, especially when there's not a clear path to the hoop. And it doesn't help that mid- and long-range shooting aren't Payton's strong suits. He shot 26 percent from three-land in 2013-14 at Louisiana-Lafayette, and he hit just 24 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com.
Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress.com noticed that Payton struggled to make buckets against his top nonconference foes (Louisville, Creighton and Baylor): "(He) really struggled to make shots both set and off the dribble."
Payton has since improved over the offseason, but it's still a major weakness. Inconsistent jump shooting will limit his scoring threat and his ability to counteract opposing defenses.
Payton is a rangy defender with good instincts, and he has the potential to be an upper-echelon stopper in his prime. But the transition may not always be smooth, as NBA quarterbacks present a brilliant mix of speed and savvy compared to mid-major guards.
Smart played against stiffer competition during his two years at Oklahoma State. He encountered better athletes and far more future NBA players than Payton did, without a doubt.
For example, he played against Andrew Wiggins and the Kansas Jayhawks three different times, and that's just a fraction of the Big 12 slate. Schmitz discovered that Smart's defense was elite, even against top-notch athletes: "Wiggins scored only one basket with Smart defending him (over three games!)...Smart showed the ability to defend multiple positions at a high level."
Offensively, Smart was a dual-threat playmaker for the Cowboys but not an efficient one. His career assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.5, and he shot 41 percent from the field and 30 percent from distance.
Smart was an aggressive attacker as Oklahoma State's primary creator, but he struggled to exhibit fluid mid-range footwork or ball-handling. He also didn't demonstrate the skill set of a true point guard or a true shooting guard.
Overall, though, Smart's collegiate competition helped prepare him for the NBA better than Payton. And don't forget, he also played admirably at training sessions with the USA Basketball Select team against the Americans' top squad.
Current Tools Entering 2014-15
Despite Smart's stingier pre-NBA regimen, some of Payton's tools are better.
He looks like a more productive and talented passer in the early going, as he's setting up his teammates more consistently than Smart. He's dishing 7.4 assists per 36 minutes for Orlando during preseason, whereas Smart is dishing 6.3.
Payton also seems slightly quicker from end to end and when slashing, which is not surprising considering he's much lighter than his Celtics counterpart.
Speaking of weight, Payton (190 lbs) is 30 pounds thinner than Smart (220 lbs), which doesn't help his case as a defender, rebounder and physical driver. Expect Smart to draw more fouls per minute.
When it comes to forcing turnovers, Smart looks better-equipped to foil pro playmakers. He's notching 3.3 steals per 36 minutes in October, while his Magic peer is swiping just 1.5.
And even though outside shooting is one of Smart's shortcomings, he's more comfortable from deep than Payton. He's attempted 28 triples (but converted just 29 percent) throughout preseason compared to just one attempt from Payton. It will be more challenging for the Magic rookie to consistently produce as a scoring weapon.
Both are confident when making plays for their clubs, but Smart seems to have an all-around assertive demeanor that bodes well for the upcoming season.
2014-15 Roles
For now, Smart is the lead dog of Boston's backcourt. But when Rajon Rondo returns from his hand injury, the rookie will be the second-fiddle point and spend the rest of his time as a combo guard or shooting guard.
It could make for a tricky rookie year if he's wearing different hats at different times. However, playing behind and alongside Rondo could take some of the production pressure off and give him an opportunity to learn from a master.
Meanwhile, Payton might be handed the keys to the Magic mobile early and spend his rookie season as the starting point guard. He could get more minutes and more playmaking opportunities than Smart.
But he could also be thrown into the fire more often, resulting in a higher dosage of mistakes and humble pie.
Prediction
There isn't a gigantic talent gap between these two players, and they're both on rebuilding franchises.
Nevertheless, there are significant differences, including playing style and roles.
Payton will probably get more minutes than Smart, and he'll rack up better numbers in the scoring and assist departments. In all likelihood, he'll garner more attention in the Rookie of the Year race.
Ultimately, however, he will face a tougher transition to the NBA. He will struggle more on a possession-by-possession basis than Smart and undergo more trials in the early weeks and months of the season.
He's still getting used to NBA-level skill and explosiveness from opposing guards, while Smart's entrance has been prepped by the rigors of the Big 12 and Team USA. Smart also owns a more NBA-ready body, and he's a better outside shooter.
We're not saying it's going to be a cakewalk for Smart. It's just going to be a bit tougher for Payton.
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA and NBA draft for Bleacher Report.
