Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers: Odds, Analysis and Prediction

The once-bitter rivalry between Alabama and Tennessee has tilted one way over recent seasons, as the Tide have beaten the Volunteers seven times in a row, going 6-1 against the spread in the process. Can Alabama keep that trend rolling when it visits Rocky Top Saturday afternoon? Or can coach Butch Jones and the Vols begin to turn it around?

Point spread: Crimson Tide opened as 15.5-point favorites at Neyland Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 39.2-13.3 Crimson Tide

Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread

Anybody that had any doubts about the Tide might want to watch a replay of last week's 59-0 torching of Texas A&M.

In retrospect, it's hard to figure why Alabama was only favored by 11 points over the Aggies. The Tide led 45-0 at halftime, eventually outgained A&M 602-172 and in general just dropped a big bomb on the Aggies. Alabama has now outgained and outrushed every opponent this year except Arkansas, and it won that game anyway.

The Tide rank 16th in the country in total offense, third in total defense and their quarterbacks, who were thought to be the weak link on this team, own a 16-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Why the Tennessee Volunteers can cover the spread

The Vols seemed to be making progress, playing Georgia and Florida tough a few weeks ago, beating Chattanooga 45-10 and covering as 25-point favorites, so we might chalk up last week's loss to Ole Miss as a bump in the road. Tennessee only trailed the Rebels 7-3 late into the second quarter, and 14-3 late into the third, but just couldn't move the chains, going three for 16 on third-down conversions.

Also, quarterback Justin Worley, after compiling a 12-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the first six games of this season, took a step back by throwing three picks. But the Vols are building for the future and figure to improve as the season progresses.

Smart Pick

With that loss to Ole Miss a couple weeks ago, Alabama knows it cannot afford one more slip if it hopes to win the SEC, a possible prerequisite for making the four-team College Football Playoff.

Also, if this game were being played in Tuscaloosa, the Tide might be favored by 25 points. Tennessee just hasn't shown enough improvement yet to inspire any betting confidence, so the smart money here should go with the better team at the more manageable spread.

Betting trends

• Alabama is 5-0 straight up in its last five games when playing Tennessee.
• Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against Alabama.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.