Will GP2 Champion Jolyon Palmer Find a Place on the 2015 Formula 1 Grid?
Jolyon Palmer joined a select group of drivers over the Russian Grand Prix weekend.
With victory in the GP2 feature race at the Sochi Autodrom, the British driver put his name alongside the likes of Nico Rosberg, Lewis Hamilton, Timo Glock, Nico Hulkenberg, Pastor Maldonado and Romain Grosjean as a champion of Formula One's feeder series.
Each of those familiar faces secured a full-time F1 drive within months of securing the GP2 crown, with several other drivers—including Sergio Perez, Kamui Kobayashi, Esteban Gutierrez, Max Chilton and Marcus Ericsson—reaching the pinnacle of motor sport without coming within touching distance of the title.
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The effect that GP2 can have on a young driver's career is obvious, with races often taking place directly under the noses of F1 team officials—usually shortly after a qualifying session and on the morning of a grand prix—allowing competitors to put themselves in the shop window.
And it's not just the suits who take note, either.
Fernando Alonso, the two-time F1 world champion, revealed to Ferrari's official website after last year's Spanish Grand Prix that his pass around the outside of Kimi Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton at Turn 3—arguably the finest overtaking move of the 2013 campaign—was down to what he had digested after "watching the GP2 race."
Clearly, much can be learnt from GP2 and those watching will have learnt much from Palmer, the son of former grand prix driver Jonathan, this season.
Representing the DAMS outfit, he has scored points in all but one race—the event immediately after he had claimed the title—recording three pole positions and 11 podium finishes, four of which were victories, and took the title ahead of Felipe Nasr—the Williams reserve driver—with one weekend and three races to spare.
Despite its rich history, the last two GP2 champions—Davide Valsecchi and Fabio Leimer—failed to make the jump to F1 in 2013 and 2014 respectively, but Palmer seems remarkably confident of being on the 2015 grid.
In an appearance on Sky Sports' The F1 Show television programme last week, Palmer said of his Formula One prospects:
"It's looking alright. It's difficult because everyone on the grid wants to stay there and there's other people trying to get in as well, but I'm in a good position. I've won the feeder series for Formula One and I've won it with a weekend to go.
I've shown that I should be there on talent, but that's not the only thing. I still think we're in a good position and, right now, I'm expecting to be on the grid next year.
"
Palmer added that he was "expecting to be" present at the post-Abu Dhabi Grand Prix test session on November 25 and 26, suggesting that an F1 contract could be signed and sealed at some point over the coming weeks.
It is, however, extremely difficult to envisage a scenario which would see the British driver line up on the starting grid at the Australian Grand Prix next March.
Seats at the leading and upper-midfield teams are, as you would expect, off limits for someone without a single race start to his name, forcing Palmer to join the rat race for drives at the rear end of the midfield and, indeed, the rear of the grid itself.
Lotus team principal Gerard Lopez confirmed on the outfit's official website in July that Maldonado will remain at the Enstone-based outfit for 2015, while the fight for the second seat is likely to be between Grosjean, the team's current lead driver, and Dani Juncadella, who as a Mercedes-affiliated driver could benefit from Lotus' recently confirmed switch to the Silver Arrows' power units from next season.
Meanwhile, Dutch publication Algemeen Dagblad (h/t NBC Sports) reported in August that Giedo van der Garde, a multiple GP2 race-winner, is set to drive for Sauber in 2015, with current driver Gutierrez telling Sky Sports' James Galloway in July that he is hoping to remain at the team for a third campaign.
And that's before you consider Gutierrez's teammate Adrian Sutil, who told the official F1 website in June that he "made a commitment for a few years" when he joined the Swiss team last winter.
With the political situation at Lotus and the battle of the budgets at Sauber—never mind the exclusive club that is Scuderia Toro Rosso, a team who offer seats to Red Bull-affiliated drivers only—Palmer's only genuine options seem to be Caterham, whose visit from bailiffs earlier this month has raised questions over their participation in the sport in 2015, and Marussia.
Marussia are, with great reluctance, almost certain to make at least one change to their driver line up for next season, with Jules Bianchi, the team's star driver, continuing to fight for his life after sustaining severe injuries in a crash at the Japanese Grand Prix.
That seat is likely to be inherited by Alexander Rossi, the American driver, who was set to deputise for Bianchi in Russia until the team decided to compete with a solitary car "out of respect" for the Frenchman.
The second car of Chilton, though, will be the one that Palmer will seemingly be keeping a close eye on.
Marussia displayed a willingness to dispose of Chilton at the Belgian Grand Prix, initially replacing the Briton with Rossi due to "contractual issues" before the team performed a mid-weekend U-turn.
And should Chilton, who secured just two wins in a three-season GP2 career in contrast to Palmer's four in one year, encounter any further behind-the-scenes issues, a glaring opportunity could arise for several aspiring stars.
However, Marussia's technical partnerships with Ferrari and McLaren could, like the situation at Lotus, see drivers of the manufacturers' young driver schemes gain an advantage, with Eric Boullier telling a McLaren media phone-in (h/t Autosport) that McLaren were keeping their options open for Stoffel Vandoorne, a GP2 rival of Palmer this year, for next season.
Although Palmer's performances in GP2 this year and his comfortable championship victory are evidence of his talent, modern Formula One dictates that drivers must bring more to the table.
This is especially true at the less fashionable teams, who rely heavily on sponsorship funds provided by their drivers to operate—and a quick glance at the British driver's personal website would suggest that area might be where he is ultimately found lacking as the scramble for seats intensifies.
A reserve role, at a team who would be open to a mid-season change of driver, would represent a decent reward as Palmer fights to keep the dream alive.
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