Bowl Predictions 2014: Projections for Top Postseason Matchups
This wild and crazy college football season has been one of the most fun to follow and hardest to predict in recent years. Perennial powerhouses have been humbled, and suddenly the state of Mississippi is beginning to look like the college football capital of the world.
It's a glorious and jumbled mess right now, but here's how we sort it at this point. Check out the predictions for the top seven bowl games this postseason. Just below the chart is an explanation of this top-four prediction.
| Championship Bowl | Jan. 12 | Arlington, Texas | Semifinal winners | Ole Miss Defeats Mississippi State |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | New Orleans, La. | Semifinal | Mississippi State vs. Michigan State |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, Calif. | Semifinal | Florida State vs. Ole Miss |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Tex. | At-Large vs. At-Large | Baylor vs. Oregon |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami, Fla. | ACC vs SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Clemson vs. Notre Dame |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Ariz. | At-Large vs At-Large | TCU vs. East Carolina |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | Atlanta, Ga. | At-Large vs. At-Large | Georgia vs. UCLA |
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Why Florida State Will Make the College Football Playoff
Florida State hasn't looked nearly as dominant this season as it did last year. Yes, the team is 6-0, but at this point in last year's run, the Noles had beaten opponents by an average of 49.3 points per game. The team's margin of victory thus far this season is just 18.3.
There hasn't been a huge increase in competition to explain the drop-off. As a matter of fact, last year's first six games featured matchups against two ranked opponents. The Clemson squad Florida State beat 51-13 in 2013 was ranked third in the nation at the time.
Even with the obvious decline, the Noles are in a safe place. They do have a tough matchup coming up on Saturday against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but if Florida State can escape with a win, it probably won't play another ranked team all year.
Virginia and Louisville have a shot at jumping back into the Top 25, but each would likely have to win this week.
In any case, both games are contests Florida State should win. Because the Noles have a fairly easy remaining schedule, they are a good bet to occupy one of the four CFP spots.
Michigan State Will Beat Out Oregon for a Spot
The fourth spot in the CFP might just come down to the Oregon Ducks and Michigan State Spartans. Earlier in the season, the Ducks defeated Michigan State 46-27 in Eugene.
If the teams both end the regular season with one loss, that would obviously give Oregon the edge. Based on the remaining schedules, it's more likely Oregon loses another game and the Spartans run the table.
The Ducks have a home game remaining against old nemesis Stanford and a road game against Utah. It's hard to imagine Oregon escaping both of those games unblemished. Stanford has beaten Oregon each of the last two years and seems to own a psychological advantage over this Ducks regime. Also, Utah can't be taken lightly.
In a down year for the Big Ten, the Spartans have the advantage. The Spartans have an even easier remaining schedule than Florida State.
A home game against No. 13 Ohio State is the only remaining contest against a ranked team. On the strength of that, they should represent the Big Ten in the CFP.
Why Both Mississippi Squads Will Make the College Football Playoff
Based on what we've seen on the field, the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels are the two best teams in the country. The voters recognized the Bulldogs by vaulting them ahead of the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles in the most recent poll.
Despite a decisive win on the road over the Texas A&M Aggies on the same day, Ole Miss couldn't quite overtake the Noles' for the second spot. It's only a matter of time before both ascend to the top of the rankings.
Both the Bulldogs and Rebels have played rough schedules, and each still has two more games against ranked opponents remaining; that includes a head-to-head matchup in the regular-season finale.
Should that game determine which of the two go to the CFP? Not if both teams come into the game undefeated, which is a real possibility.
Ole Miss still has to go into Baton Rouge and defeat the LSU Tigers, but the Bayou hasn't been nearly as treacherous for visitors as it has been in seasons past. The team already dropped a home contest against Mississippi State earlier in the season.
The Tigers have fallen out of the Top 25 and aren't considered an upper echelon SEC team at this point.
The Rebels will take on Auburn in a spirited battle on Nov. 1, but the game takes place at Oxford where Ole Miss has looked its best. While it will be tough, Bo Wallace and Co. should be the favorites in that game.
Mississippi State can't sleep on Kentucky next Saturday. The Wildcats are 5-1 heading into a matchup with LSU this week. A win would have talented sophomore quarterback Patrick Towles and his teammates confident heading into the clash with the Bulldogs.
Per Jennifer Smith of Kentucky Sports, the confident Towles is raring to go on the road against a seemingly vulnerable LSU team. He said:
"I love playing on the road because it really helps me focus better. If I got a lot of people yelling, I know that, 'Hey, I gotta really focus right now.' So I like it. I hope they get as loud as they can."
The Bulldogs-Wildcats game is in Kentucky and could be a trap for the nation's No. 1 team if they aren't mentally prepared. Assuming Mississippi State beats Kentucky, the only other problematic game on paper before the clash with Ole Miss on Nov. 29 is a visit to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama.
While this is a down year by the standards of Nick Saban and Co., they are still going to be a handful at home. That's especially the case assuming Bama still has some CFP hopes still alive.
Despite the competitive road games, I don't see the Bulldogs losing until they travel to Oxford to face their in-state rivals. Last week's win over Auburn was a proving point for Mississippi State. It won a game against a top-notch opponent without their Heisman Trophy candidate, Dak Prescott, throwing the ball well.
He did run for 121 yards and two touchdowns, but he also tossed two interceptions.
Prescott will likely be better the rest of the way, but it's a great confidence booster to know that his defense could respond and hold perhaps the premier running team in the nation to a human 232 yards on the ground.
They obviously can't play each other in the SEC title game, but there isn't a team in the SEC East capable of knocking off Ole Miss provided it stays away from injuries to key personnel.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State will wind up rematching in the national championship, like it or not.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
