Kentucky Basketball: What Should Wildcats' Crunch-Time Lineup Be in 2014-15?

By the midpoint of the Southeastern Conference basketball season—say, around Valentine's Day—Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari will have scrapped his vaunted two-platoon system, designed to ensure that all 10 of the potential NBA draft picks on his roster receive adequate playing time to showcase their skills for pro scouts.

The roster Calipari has assembled may be one of the most talented in college basketball history, but too much of that talent is concentrated in big men most comfortable in the paint. Conversely, the Wildcats have too few players capable of attacking the basket from a wing position and—even more importantly—stopping other teams' most athletic small forwards from doing the same on the defensive end.

When Calipari gets a handle on what's working and what's not, two or three of his players will see more time on the bench during the crucial late-game moments that will assuredly arise during UK's rugged nonconference schedule. The modern-day motto "succeed and proceed" will give way to the age-old truism "survival of the fittest."

Certain players will prove themselves worthy of Calipari's confidence during those harrowing moments when the games are on the line. Someone is bound to assert himself as a go-to player during the moments that make legends in the NCAA tournament.

Now, to use a phrase rapidly approaching fatigue, who among these Wildcats will prove themselves "clutch"?

The Master of March

One player who's already put himself on "One Shining Moment" reels for eternity is sophomore shooting guard Aaron Harrison.

His late-game heroics in tournament wins over Louisville, Michigan and Wisconsin, combined with a complete turnaround in his shooting fortunes from a lackluster regular season, briefly put Harrison back on the NBA's radar and re-stoked the dying embers of his one-and-done hopes.

Lost in the sheer magnitude of his tournament shots, however, were moments that signaled his budding promise, even in defeat.

In UK's March 1 loss to South Carolina, Harrison showed the capacity to convert in big moments, if not the consistency required to do it regularly.

His 3-of-8 shooting in the game's final 12:36 doesn't look impressive, but: a) It was a solid finish after a 1-of-8 start; and b) He supplemented that with a 7-of-8 run at the foul line. After the game, Harrison made a prophetic statement when he said, "We know what we can do, and it’s going to be a great story." (h/t Kyle Tucker, Louisville Courier-Journal)

Harrison himself became the story later on in the month. The 30.6 percent regular-season three-point shooter gave way to a 48 percent assassin whose only nights below 40 percent coincided with UK's losses to Florida in the SEC tournament final and UConn in the national title game.

So which is the real guy? With UK's only other potential three-point threats being freshmen Devin Booker and Karl Towns, Calipari will give Harrison every opportunity to prove that he's closer to the sniper the nation marveled at in March than the hapless chucker who struggled through the first four months.

"He's not afraid to miss," Calipari said to Mark Story of the Lexington Herald-Leader. "He's OK with (the prospect of missing). He's comfortable in his own skin."

Most of the best shooters have to be.

Eric Gay/Associated Press

The "Grown-People" Guy (and His Happy Defensive Sidekick)

Experience helps during those moments when victory and defeat dance on a razor's edge. Kentucky's not a team typically loaded with that particular intangible, but two juniors get to repopulate a species long thought endangered around Lexington.

Alex Poythress and Willie Cauley-Stein have a quirky relationship, as UK Athletics' Guy Ramsey explored in a profile of Poythress earlier this month. The gregarious Cauley-Stein said of the more reserved Poythress:

"

"I'm the kind of dude that wants to go outside and see everybody and always on the move, and he's always the dude that's like, I'm going to stay in the room and watch a movie and do grown-people stuff and I'm always trying to experience all the fun stuff."

"

A college student needs a hefty dose of focus to concentrate on his "grown-people" stuff when there are so many pleasant diversions available, especially to a campus rock star like a Kentucky basketball player. That focus served Poythress well during the run to the national championship game.

Poythress produced 12.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per 40 minutes during UK's six-game NCAA odyssey, shooting 68 percent from the floor and not missing even once against Louisville, Michigan or Wisconsin.

His versatile defensive presence kept him on the floor late in all six games, even if Calipari was platooning him in three. Poythress showed up on both ends against Louisville, kick-starting the Cats' closing 15-3 run with a dunk at one end and immediately stuffing Russ Smith at the other. He put up six of UK's points during that closing flurry.

Poythress' 11.8 points per game led the team in their six-game trip to the Bahamas, showing that he's ready to shoulder some offensive load. Consider, as well, that those games were played without Cauley-Stein or Trey Lyles, allowing Poythress to spend much of his time operating as a power forward. On offense, at least, that should be where he's expected to work during crucial moments this season.

Poythress may be the only Wildcat frontcourt player with the ability to hang against athletic perimeter players, so he'll certainly be one of the players kicking hardest against the two-platoon's glass boxes.

That same defensive end is also where Cauley-Stein is most dangerous, and he should also be expected to get the call when the game is on the line. While Big Willie isn't the most polished scorer, he's still a better option in that area than Dakari Johnson or Marcus Lee, while proving a much more effective rim protector than Lyles or Towns.

Who Gets the Point?

The most crucial position during the latter stages of a tight game—even more than it is during the rest of the season—is point guard. The Wildcats have a Mutt-and-Jeff combo at that position, one of whom is a big, experienced hand while the other is a tiny newcomer with an explosive zip to his game.

And both Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis should finish the games that UK has to win. Yes, together.

Ulis' 5'9" stature will surely prove a disadvantage at times, but his quick hands and feet will allow him to victimize guards of all size if their focus wavers. Offensively, Ulis played Harrison to a stalemate in the Bahamas. I compared the pair's stats here, but let's bring them back for ease of reading. (Averages are per 40 minutes, not per game.)

	Points	Assists	Steals	3-pt. FG%	Turnovers
Harrison	12.4	9.8	1.0	0.0	3.8
Ulis	15.3	8.0	2.7	60.0	3.7

Even more important for crunch time, the pair weren't terribly careless with the ball. Ulis turned it over once every 10.8 minutes of action, Harrison once every 10.5.

Now, remember that earlier comment about Towns and Booker being the only perimeter shooters? It may prove false if Ulis keeps up something close to that shooting touch from the Bahamas. That 60 percent rate came from a 9-of-15 sample size, not a 3-of-5. Still a small sample, but Ulis nevertheless sounded the alarm that he could make it rain on his foes if they forget about him.

As a shooter, Andrew Harrison was actually his brother's superior during the regular season. Andrew sank 35.6 percent from the arc heading into the SEC tournament. From there, it appears that Aaron hogged all the Wonder Twin powers for himself, as Andrew dipped to 33.3 percent during the postseason, 29.4 in the NCAA tournament.

Pairing the two point guards together and allowing Andrew to play off the ball maximizes his ability in catch-and-shoot situations. According to DraftExpress analyst Mike Schmitz' scouting video, Andrew produced 1.06 points per possession off the catch as a freshman, as opposed to 0.76 off the dribble (8:55 mark, below).

If the offseason has helped the Harrisons become more consistent with their shots, pairing them with Ulis and Poythress (42.4 percent from the arc as a freshman, remember) would form a deceptively dangerous offensive bunch. All four are capable of attacking the glass, three have proven capable of sinking key foul shots, and there's the potential for hot streaks at the arc.

They'll have to produce on the offensive end, because there's still a question regarding Andrew Harrison on the defensive end. His focus frequently flagged in that area, particularly in off-ball situations, so playing him with Ulis will force him to guard bigger wing players and demand greater concentration. If that doesn't come, the bench is a much more serious threat than it was last season.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Hey, What About...?

Karl Towns? He's the likely next man up if anyone flags on defense or finds himself in foul trouble. As I indicated here, there's no man on UK's team who makes the offense as unpredictable. When every play counts, however, predictable is fine as long as it works. Towns' versatility makes him a worthy substitute for any man in the above lineup.

Trey Lyles? Perhaps the best low-post scorer on the team, but he's not the athlete that Cauley-Stein is on the defensive end. A rim protector is valuable in case an entry pass sails over Ulis' head or a penetrator charges past Andrew Harrison.

Dakari Johnson? An earth-mover inside and better conditioned this year than last, but he trails Lyles in skill level and Cauley-Stein in athleticism.

Marcus Lee? The best athlete on the team and a vicious shot-swatter, he put multiple Michigan Wolverines on posters last March (as seen above). Unfortunately, he makes Cauley-Stein look like Hakeem Olajuwon offensively.

Devin Booker? He showed signs of one-trick pony status in the Bahamas. His 6-of-14 shooting from the arc was respectable, but 5-of-18 on two-pointers with only four free throw attempts qualifies as ugly. If he's in a game late, it's likely one where the Wildcats need his perimeter stroke to narrow a deficit.

It's a quintet of Ulis, the Harrisons, Poythress and Cauley-Stein that offers the right blend of offensive potential, defensive energy, experience and athleticism to overcome most matchups. If this is the lineup on the floor when the buzzer sounds on April 6 in Indianapolis, remember where you read it first.

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Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/04/06/3182785/mark-story-aaron-harrisons-cool.html#storylink=cpy