2015 NBA Draft: Pros and Cons of Every Potential No. 1 Pick
We're treated to a dynamically talented trio of prospects at the top of the 2015 NBA draft class.
Each offers a uniquely intriguing set of skills and potential, so every potential lottery franchise will be taking a hard look at all three players.
There's Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor, the colossal Chicago native set to rule the paint in the ACC. Elsewhere in the college ranks, Kentucky freshman Karl Towns looks to showcase his repertoire. Scouts and executives won't forget about Emmanuel Mudiay, the Southern Methodist recruit who skipped college to play for the Guangdong Southern Tigers in China.
There are compelling reasons to pick each of them No. 1, but it's important to weigh the positives and downsides. Let's go through a good old fashioned pros-and-cons list to size them up as we embark on the 2014-15 campaign.
Jahlil Okafor: Pros
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Size and length: Okafor doesn't have towering height for a center, as he's 6'10.75" with shoes on. However, he owns a colossal 7'5" wingspan and a 9'2.5" standing reach and thus has plenty of length to score over opponents and protect the rim at the other end.
Equally important is his bulky 270-pound frame, which he uses to establish position on the block and control the paint. Okafor's body is ready to handle the rigors of the NBA frontcourt right now.
Low-Post Polish: He's the type of player who can post up and convert several simple yet brutally effective moves. Whether it's a drop-step spin move or an up-and-under, he executes it with exemplary footwork and uses his massive physique to shield defenders and score. B/R NBA Draft Lead Writer Jonathan Wasserman likens him to Charlotte Hornets star Al Jefferson.
Court Awareness: The team that lands Okafor is getting a youngster who already possesses advanced court awareness. He runs the floor extremely well and knows how to capitalize on secondary break opportunities. He's got a good nose for the ball as a rebounder, and he's a solid passer for a big man, showing a knack for surveying the floor and dishing to teammates out of the post.
Maturity: Okafor's got a good head on his shoulders, which is readily apparent from all his interviews and others' comments about him. When comparing Okafor to Jabari Parker, ESPN Insider Adam Finkelstein wrote, "Okafor has that same level of maturity." He'll only help his NBA locker room, as his coaches won't have to worry about negative distractions.
Jahlil Okafor: Cons
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Underwhelming Athleticism: Although Okafor is quite mobile from end-to-end, he's not a standout athlete. In many cases, his size helps compensate, but he could struggle against athletic big men.
NBADraft.net scout Ian Powers notes how Okafor's underwhelming burst hurts him on both ends: "(He) has trouble moving his feet in pick and roll situations. ... Has problems finishing over length due to the fact that he's not an explosive athlete."
Not Positionally Versatile: He's not one of those prospects who will be able to play three different positions once he enters the NBA. Okafor's home is near the hoop, so he won't be a rangy defender or a player who can pop out on to the wing. It's not really a major red flag, but something to consider when evaluating a potential No. 1 pick.
Lower Ceiling: This is the result of the first two cons. Okafor will be a rock-solid anchor but probably doesn't have superstar potential to score 25 points per game and carry a team. Again, it's not a huge negative, just a factor to take into account.
Emmanuel Mudiay: Pros
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Explosiveness and Agility: One of the first things anyone notices about Mudiay is his speed and shiftiness. He can flat-out turn on the afterburners and can also change direction on a dime. Opponents will have fits trying to stay in front of him and getting around him when he's locked in defensively.
Creativity and Potential Versatility: Mudiay's promising ball-handling skills and multifaceted offensive weaponry magnify his speed and agility. He can hesitate, change speeds and maneuver to anywhere he wants to go. His shot-making creativity and outside shooting potential could make him a true dual-threat point guard who can facilitate and score at a high volume.
Defensive Versatility: Given his mix of length and speed, Mudiay should be able to guard two or perhaps three different positions in the NBA. At 6'5", 200 pounds with a 6'8.5" wingspan, he has the size to check most wings, along with the speed to corral point guards.
Superstar Upside: The biggest bottom-line "pro" for Mudiay is that he has superstar potential. His playmaking creativity and physical tools could enable him to shine even on basketball's biggest stage. It might not happen right away, but the possibilities are there if he applies himself.
Emmanuel Mudiay: Cons
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Shaky Fundamentals: Sometimes Mudiay's decision-making and bad habits hurt his productivity and efficiency. His propensity to force big plays will result in some untimely mistakes in the NBA.
ESPN's scouting profile (subscription required) noted some specific shortcomings: "(Mudiay) will need to hone his point guard skills especially under intense ball pressure. At times he will dribble into the dead corner and sideline which results in a negative outcome."
Jump Shot: As with many young point guards who make their living driving to the rim, Mudiay has an inconsistent jump shot. He sets up his shots nicely and has promising form but just needs to iron it out a bit and become more reliable from long range.
Translating His Value: It's easier to size up a player's talent and strengths when he's competing all winter against NCAA competition and fellow draft candidates. It's tougher to translate his success and struggles in China. If he overwhelmingly dominates or struggles mightily, it may be clear whether to take him No. 1. But if he plays somewhere in between, it will be tricky to pinpoint his draft value compared to other elite prospects.
Karl Towns, Jr.: Pros
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Scoring Versatility: Although he's just a freshman, Towns can score effectively from anywhere on the court. Three-ball? Mid-range? Drive from the wing? Back-to-basket? Check each box.
Towns' offensive moves and shooting skills are fluid. His footwork and shooting range are good and will only get better. Teams looking for a multidimensional stretch 4 are salivating over this prodigy.
Size/Physical Tools: Towns is not only big (250 pounds) and long (6'11.25", 7'3.5" wingspan), but he's surprisingly athletic for someone that size. He's extremely mobile from end to end, and at Kentucky's recent pro day combine event he hopped for a 36.5" max vertical.
He's not in the "elite athlete" category but has enough bounce to compete in the Association. His length and agility will make him a high-level rebounder in the NBA, not to mention a solid interior defender.
Passing/Court Vision: Towns has a great feel for the game and is a talented passer. Former Virginia Tech head coach Seth Greenberg praised the youngster's advanced instincts: "Towns is a fantastic passer and patient low-post scorer. He sees plays develop from the block and the perimeter."
Student of the Game: He absorbs basketball knowledge and tricks from all over the NBA, including yesteryear's stars. Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports explains:
"Though young, Towns has an old-school love for the game. He is developing a skyhook patterned from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and says he is trying to defend like A.C. Green. He has watched YouTube to learn moves from Magic Johnson, Shawn Kemp, Sam Perkins, Toni Kukoc, George Gervin and the late Len Bias. Towns has read basketball instructional books from Johnson Kemp, Michael Jordan and Julius Erving. His favorite basketball player of all-time is Bias.
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That definitely goes in the "pros" category.
Karl Towns, Jr.: Cons
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Physical Big Man?: Although he possesses low-post moves and rebounding ability, it seems like interior play isn't Towns' strength. Some question whether he could really pound in the paint (like Okafor, for instance) if his team needed him to.
DraftExpress.com video scout Mike Schmitz highlighted some unnerving trends: "(Towns) lacks a level of toughness. ... Too willing to float on the perimeter and take threes. Gets pushed around a bit." It's great that he can play all over the floor, but teams might rather have a true inside-out stretch 4 than a heavily perimeter-based stretch 4.
Defensive Versatility: Will he be able to keep quick forwards in front of him? He's got decent athleticism for his size but doesn't have the quickest feet and isn't too explosive.
If he can't improve his lateral speed, he may end up guarding the slowest opponent on the floor whenever he's in the game. Elite offense trumps most defensive shortcomings when it comes to prospect evaluation, but it's something to keep in mind when considering Towns. Suitors will take note even if the defensive limitations aren't damning.
The Verdict: Who Lands No. 1?
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All three prospects clearly bring enticing potential and tangible skills. They each make interesting and compelling cases to earn the top selection in June.
Who will emerge as the first name called on draft night?
I wouldn't blame the lottery winner for picking Mudiay or Towns, but Okafor's interior dominance will be too good to pass up. As with last year's fixation on the pre-injured version of Joel Embiid, NBA executives will gravitate toward a true big man who can also keep pace with the up-and-down style of the league.
Obviously, a player's landing spot depends largely on how the lottery shakes out in May, but several of the worst teams in the league would love to get a productive, skilled two-way center like Okafor.
Towns' offensive talent is tantalizing, yet he may not be a legitimate anchor and won't get as much exposure in Kentucky's stacked lineup. Mudiay is a dynamic specimen, but his time in China might not convince scouts that his game will translate.
Okafor is the best mix of proven qualities and potential. Entering the 2014-15 campaign, he's our top choice.
After weighing the pros and cons of each top prospect, which one do you think should land No. 1? Sound off in the comment section below!
Dan O'Brien covers the NBA Draft for Bleacher Report.
Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR
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