Realistic Expectations for Sebastian Vettel's First Season with Ferrari
Just before the Japanese Grand Prix, Red Bull announced that Sebastian Vettel—winner of the last four world championships—would be leaving the team at the end of the year.
Speculation began immediately that he was headed to Ferrari, with leading figures on the Red Bull team talking as if it were a done deal. Team advisor Helmut Marko, for example, told the official Formula One website, "It was not only a case of Sebastian wanting to leave, but also of Fernando Alonso clearing the way. The more Alonso distanced himself from Ferrari the more likely it became that Seb would move."
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However, there are also rumours floating around that Vettel could actually be moving to McLaren, to partner Alonso. Last week, ESPN F1's Maurice Hamilton wrote that both men had recently been spotted at Farnborough Airport, near McLaren headquarters, and that "An Alonso/Vettel partnership in the mould of [Ayrton] Senna/[Alain] Prost is the sort of thing [McLaren CEO] Ron Dennis dreams of."
For the purposes of this article, though, let's assume Vettel is making the obvious move to Ferrari, following in the footsteps of his countryman and idol, Michael Schumacher, who joined Ferrari in 1996 and brought the iconic Italian team back to glory.
But glory has been in short supply around Ferrari's Maranello headquarters lately. The team's last title came in 2008, during Kimi Raikkonen's first stint with the team, when he partnered with Felipe Massa to win the constructors' championship. Their last victory came early in 2013, when Alonso won his home grand prix in Spain. The current win drought is the longest since the pre-Schumacher years.
Given all of that and the fact that Alonso—widely regarded as the most naturally talented driver in the sport—has managed only two podiums this season, what are the realistic expectations for Vettel if he does end up at Ferrari next season?
Perhaps it is easier to say what does not look possible, first. A championship—drivers' or constructors'—seems out of the question. Mercedes' advantage is so great right now that it is unlikely anybody will overtake them by the start of next season. The gap will probably close, but Ferrari are also looking up at Red Bull and Williams right now. Both of those teams have a more realistic shot at taking the fight to Mercedes in 2015.
What about winning a race? That is more likely but still not a lock. Ferrari have only had one real shot at victory this year, in the rain-affected Hungarian Grand Prix, where Alonso came second. In a straight fight this year, no one has been able to come close to Mercedes, and Vettel will need help (in the form of Mercedes reliability problems or Spa-style mistakes) if he hopes to return to the top step of the podium.
More likely, 2015 will be a rebuilding year for the team as new Ferrari chairman Sergio Marchionne and team principal Marco Mattiacci continue to restructure the team and bring in the people they want.
"We've got to kick some ass and we've got to do it quickly," Marchionne recently told Autocar magazine (via Autosport's Jonathan Noble). "It takes what it takes. We might screw up, but we've got nothing to lose, right? Let's risk something."
Meanwhile, Mattiacci told a Ferrari fan question-and-answer session in August:
"We are applying a change to our working methods, adopting a new approach and a strategy that can make us more competitive. We have decided to invest in new infrastructures and people to create a more modern and slimmed down organization, but one that at the same time puts the emphasis on the team and on individuality. It is equally important to give everyone the chance to express their talent to the maximum.
"
One of the biggest changes this year—aside from Marchionne's and Mattiacci's arrivals—was the sacking of Luca Marmorini as head of the Ferrari engine department. The team's 2014 engine is significantly under-powered compared to the Mercedes unit and has contributed not only to Ferrari's struggles but also those of their longtime customer, Sauber (ironically, their other customer team, Marussia, look set for their best-ever finish in the constructors' standings).
Raikkonen, Vettel's presumed teammate for next year, said, per ESPN F1, the changes have not made a noticeable difference yet, but:
"As for the future I think it will be a bit different and, at least from what I've heard, we're going in the right direction. But there's a lot of work to do to get where we should be in the front.
There's some new people coming and Marco has done a very good job, done the right things with changes, and I'm sure in the future or even next year we will be in a much stronger position—if it's enough—already.
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If it's enough—and that is a big "if." It is a difficult task to overhaul the structure and culture of a hundreds-strong team in just a few months.
One man who might be up to the task is Ross Brawn, who was a big part of the Schumacher revival and more recently built the Mercedes team that has dominated this season.
There have been rumours about him returning to Ferrari, but in September he told Germany's Auto, Motor und Sport (via Reuters' Alan Baldwin), "I'm not considering a role at Ferrari or anywhere else at the moment. I'm not in contact with Ferrari and am not actively seeking a new role in Formula One." He also said, "Never say never."
But none of this speculation will bring success. No matter who is hired or what changes are made, Vettel is looking at a difficult first season wearing Ferrari red. However, after four years of unqualified success at Red Bull, he finally faced disappointment this year.
Despite being overshadowed this year by his new Red Bull teammate, Daniel Ricciardo, Vettel has remained cool and focused. Those traits—and this year's experience, not running at the front, for once—will serve him well if Ferrari are not immediately competitive.
In terms of timelines, Mattiacci told Sky Sports' Martin Brundle at the Belgian Grand Prix:
"Now we are basically setting up a strategy that is going to be for the next three years and that is probably for sure going to see Ferrari go back to the top in Formula One and succeed. ... It is going to take a while. This is not soccer: you don’t change the coach and buy two players and you are going to win next year’s championship.
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At the start of the 2017 season, Vettel will still be just 29 years old (for reference, Alonso is now 33). He has the time to build something special with Ferrari.
Asked in an interview with the official F1 website whether Red Bull offered a better chance to win races next season than Ferrari, Vettel responded, "At the end of the day it doesn't really matter—as I said that it was the craving for something new; a new challenge!"
He also knows that if he can help return F1's most successful and popular team to the top of the sport, he will be mentioned in the same breath as Schumacher and many other F1 legends.
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