Los Angeles Kings' Performance vs. Blues Will Reveal True Early-Season Form

Though the 2-1-1 Los Angeles Kings have rebounded nicely from a poor start to the season, their current two-game winning streak is negligible.

The Winnipeg Jets and undermanned Edmonton Oilers—a weak opponent even at full strength—don’t exactly represent top competition.

L.A. has only squared off against one playoff team from last season, and on the night when they watched their second Stanley Cup banner rise to the rafters, the Kings were never going to wrestle a victory away from a highly motivated San Jose Sharks squad.

With that in mind, the reigning champions will face their first measuring-stick game of the season on Thursday night against the St. Louis Blues—a deep and structured side that resents L.A. for booting it from the postseason in both 2011-12 and 2013.

The contest should provide a glimpse of how the Kings will handle the Western Conference’s powerhouses early on.

Offense

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Due largely to the exploits of That '70s Line, the 2014-15 Kings seem more lethal and dynamic than any L.A. club in recent memory. However, they’ve played fairly mediocre opponents to this point in the campaign.

The Blues, who are coached by Ken Hitchcock and thus very disciplined in their own end, will test just how improved this Kings offense really is.

At present—granted, it’s only been four games—L.A. sits 14th in the league in goals per game (3.00). It ranked 26th (2.42) last season.

The “second line” of Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson has posted a remarkable 16 points and plus-22 rating combined. Can it continue to produce against firmer opposition?

The Blues appear to boast the right personnel—center depth (David Backes, Paul Stastny), two-way forwards (Alex Steen, T.J. Oshie, Jaden Schwartz) and stout all-around blueliners (Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester)—to stifle the unit, but balance has proven to be an issue in the past against L.A.

As such, the onus will fall upon the Kings’ entire forward corps to perform well and generate scoring chances. 

The Kings offense has been prolific at times, but it has yet to deliver a dose of “Kings hockey.” The NHL’s leaders in Corsi percentage for two years running are currently 18th in this category.

Other than Mike Richards and Pearson, the key forwards haven’t been as effective in the puck-possession game in 2014-15:

	2013-14	2014-15	Difference
Anze Kopitar	61.0	52.6	-8.4
Justin Williams	60.8	58.3	-2.5
Tyler Toffoli	60.3	57.3	-3.0
Dwight King	58.5	47.3	-11.2
Dustin Brown	57.7	41.2	-16.5
Jeff Carter	56.8	54.6	-2.2
Jarret Stoll	55.6	43.3	-12.3
Tanner Pearson	55.1	57.0	+1.9
Mike Richards	54.6	59.0	+4.4
Marian Gaborik	54.4	49.3	-5.1

This, as it always does with the Kings, boils down to the details.

Throwing hits is nice, but recovering the puck is more important to the forecheck—especially on a team for which owning the biscuit is integral to the game plan. Kyle Clifford, Jarret Stoll and the remaining bottom-sixers must not only engage opponents physically, but also win the actual tussles for possession.

Breaking out of the defensive zone cleanly and keeping plays alive under pressure are also critical areas to focus on.

Williams' goal against the Oilers on Tuesday was quintessential Kings hockey.

Alec Martinez absorbs a hit from David Perron to send a pass to Richards, who delays, draws a forechecker and finds the open outlet in the middle of the ice (Matt Greene). Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams then capitalize on the opposition's porous neutral-zone posture:

Again, carving Edmonton up isn't much of a feat, but everyone did their job nevertheless. Moreover, every single skater touched the puck as the team exited its zone as a group with short, accurate passes.

It was a prime example of the fundamentals that define L.A.'s style.

Carrying that forward would be huge.

So far this year, the forwards by and large haven’t jelled, eating up each other’s space in the offensive zone and seldom making the correct situational reads. That ’70s Line has produced nine goals, but the rest of the team has mustered only three.

That has to change. The Western Conference is simply too strong for the Kings to ride the coattails of one hot unit for an extended stretch of the schedule.

Establishing balance is the priority, and that begins with a bid to reclaim the puck-possession throne. Controlling the trenches tilts the ice in L.A.’s favor and smothers the opposition in its end. From there, the Kings simply overwhelm it by coming in waves.

That has been their recipe for success of late.

Revisiting it would allow the club to maintain its head of steam and climb up the standings in short order.

Defense

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An injury to top-pairing rearguard Jake Muzzin has hamstrung the blue line. Though his return date is uncertain, LA Kings Insider reported that he won't play on Thursday.

Therefore, Brayden McNabb—who’s filling in as Drew Doughty’s partner—will remain under the microscope. He’s shown flashes of solid hockey in the first four games, but they’ve been offset by positively disastrous choices.

He’s committed ill-timed hits and pinches on several occasions per game, leading to a slew of odd-man rushes against:

Aggressiveness is fine. General manager Dean Lombardi actually singled out that trait after completing a trade for him last season. “We’d rather tame a lion than paint stripes on a kitty cat,” he said during a conference call.

However, McNabb has to learn when to go full bore. It almost feels like he’s trying too hard to make an impression, launching his body at opponents rather than letting the game come to him.

In many ways, this is reminiscent of Muzzin’s early growing pains.

He was a tad careless and flustered as well, but he’s matured over the past season-and-a-half, displaying much more poise as the experience racked up.

There’s no reason McNabb can’t follow a similar trajectory. With that said, first-pairing minutes might not constitute the best way for him to settle into his role. After all, he won’t be suiting up in that spot when Muzzin joins the fray.

Elsewhere, Slava Voynov and Robyn Regehr's struggles have persisted into the new season, as they rank last among L.A.'s pairings from the standpoints of possession and plus/minus.

The sense of calm found with Doughty or the third pairing of Martinez and Greene—which has been quite good—disappears with the second unit, as it has often fumbled the puck and taken sloppy angles on puck-carriers.

This is not particularly surprising, but it remains an issue that could hurt the Kings down the line.

Perhaps the most disappointing component of the defense, though, has been the three-zone play of the third forward line. Stoll’s Corsi percentage has taken a nosedive and his coverage has been suspect at best:

Along with Dustin Brown and Dwight King, the group has continually found itself hemmed in its end and incapable of alleviating the pressure.

McNabb, the second pairing and the third line will be worth keeping an eye on against the tenacious Blues. Counteracting their heavy forecheck requires composure and crisp execution. It requires taking hits to make plays and finding the open man quickly on the breakout.

If the Kings as a whole can achieve that on Thursday, there will be cause for optimism.

Outlook

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Following a lethargic season opener and matchups against three subpar opponents, the Kings haven't offered a clear picture of where they stand.

The Blues game will help out in this regard, as it's a serious challenge from a squad with equally serious Stanley Cup aspirations. St. Louis is physical, talented, deep and stingy. Coasting by on skill alone won't fly for L.A. on Thursday.

Every inch will be contested, and that marks a real opportunity for the Kings to show that they already mean business.

Failing to seize it wouldn't represent the end of the world by any means, but performing well could build on their momentum and push the front-runners one step closer to finding their regular-season stride.

Advanced statistics courtesy of Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, Puckalytics and Behind the Net.