NASCAR at Talladega 2014: Complete Preview and Prediction for Geico 500
It’s only fitting that Sunday’s GEICO 500 takes place on NASCAR’s biggest oval, the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway.
It will undoubtedly be the most entertaining race of this year’s Chase. The restrictor-plate races always are.
And for five Chase drivers on the verge of elimination from postseason competition, it is also the most important.
This could be the last meaningful race of the season for Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski and Kasey Kahne. Each driver can control his own destiny with a win on Sunday which moves him into the next round of the Chase.
You can't really call it "win-or-go-home" time, but it's close enough.
Veteran motorsports scribe Dustin Long commented about Sunday’s race saying, “Rarely has a Talladega race been so anticipated.”
Following his win at Charlotte last weekend, Kevin Harvick said, “It’s going to be crazy, offensive racing. It’s going to be fun to watch.”
Four-wide, bumper-to-bumper 200-miles-per-hour NASCAR racing with five desperate men among 43 drivers all convinced that they can win.
Qualifying Report
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Brian Vickers won the pole for Sunday’s Geico 500 with a lap of 48.825 seconds at 196.129 mph. It was his first pole since 2009 (Michigan), a race where he swept both the pole and the race win.
Vicker’s was quick to credit his team and his crew chief Billy Scott.
“I really get no credit for it,” Vickers said in post-race television interview. “I just tried not to wreck. Billy (crew chief, Scott) and all the guys did a great job with the car and Billy had a strategy and a plan—we stuck to it even when I thought we were crazy and we were going to be in trouble we stuck to his plan.”
Starting alongside Vickers on the front row is Jimmie Johnson, who afterwards thought he might have been much slower.
“Yeah I’m definitely thrilled with the results although it was confusing, and I wasn’t sure that it was going to be any better than 11th or 12th. And I ended up second,” said Johnson in the post-qualifying press conference.
A. J. Allmendinger starts third, rookie Ryan Blaney driving for Roger Penske starts fourth and Brad Keselowski round out the top five.
Notable starts: Ryan Newman (11th), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (28th), Jamie McMurray (31st), Tony Stewart (37th) and Kevin Harvick (39th).
The Geico 500 takes the green flag approx. 2:18 p.m. (ET)
Qualifying statistics courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications
Facts and Figures: Talladega Superspeedway and the GEICO 500
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Talladega Superspeedway’s 2.66 miles of asphalt has been the scene of some of the greatest racing in NASCAR’s history.
With it’s uniquely situated start-finish line, strategically positioned 1250 feet from the center of the tri-oval, so that every finish would be a race to the line, it remains a one-of-a-kind race track.
Because restrictor plates on the engines, designed to slow the cars down, are mandated for use at Talladega Superspeedway, the racing is in packs with cars running inches apart at speeds that often approach 200 miles per hour and faster, according to NASCAR official statistics. It is nerve-wracking and stressful for drivers. And it makes for a great show for the fans.
Danica Patrick had this to say about Talladega's unique qualities in her pre-race media release:
"The fans really make that place. The campgrounds—all that stuff makes it one, big party. You see how much fun the fans are having, and that makes it fun for us as drivers. It’s just a unique place. The sheer size of the facility is amazing.
"I liked it from the first time I went there, and, hopefully, we can have a good run and a good finish. The cool thing about superspeedways is that anybody can win. It’s a toss-up, what’s going to happen."
GEICO 500 (race number six of the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup)
Where: Talladega Superspeedway
When: Sunday, Oct. 19
Time: Green flag approx. 2:18 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, Countdown begins at 1 p.m. ET
Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN), Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 500 miles (188 laps)
Key Storylines
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Could it Be the End of the Line?
Jimmie Johnson is one of five drivers—Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth—whose season hangs in the balance on Sunday. A win is the only way any of them can guarantee that they'll advance to the Eliminator Round.
All five drivers could find themselves on the outside looking in on this year’s Chase as it moves toward the championship round in Homestead on November 16.
Johnson is in an odd position this year, having been the driver to beat in previous seasons. His team has struggled in the second half of the year. The team had expected to win in Charlotte, a place where Johnson has won seven times before. His 17th-place finish, the result of mechanical issues, was a real shock.
“We definitely didn’t get the finish we needed in Charlotte, and it’s forced us into the position of having to win this weekend in Talladega,” said Johnson in his pre-race media release. “I can’t control the rest of the field, though, and we are just going to need some luck heading into this weekend. If anyone can pull it off, this No. 48 Lowe’s team can.”
Keselowski is having a brilliant season, having won five times, and it would be a tough blow to the entire Team Penske organization not to have Keselowski and Joey Logano in the season finale.
“We approach it just like we do every week,” Keselowski is quoted in his team’s pre-race media release. “We are more than capable of winning and we’ll do our utmost to make that happen.”
Boys Have at It, but Not This Weekend
There is some unresolved business between Keselowski and Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth left over from their post-race dust-up at Charlotte.
However, Talladega isn’t going to be the place to resolve those issues. All four drivers know that.
If Martinsville was this weekend, then we might be in for some payback—done respectfully, of course, given that Keselowski and Stewart are on probation until the end of the season.
So, there will be none of it this weekend. However, Martinsville is next weekend.
Could Tires Become an Issue?
Goodyear’s Racing Eagles have unfortunately figured in the result of several races this season, and fans may have reason to worry whether they could alter the outcome of Sunday’s race.
Sprint Cup teams will be on a new right-side tire that is different than the tire that teams ran at Talladega in May. According to Goodyear’s pre-race media release, this new right-side tire features a compound change for better wear.
Goodyear engineers made the change based on what they have seen of the track surface, which is now eight years from its last re-pave (2006).
As a safety measure, on all NASCAR ovals greater than one mile in length, teams are required to run inner liners in all four tire positions at Talladega.
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Top Contenders
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
One of the five drivers who has to win to control his destiny, Junior’s five wins at Talladega make him a favorite, but it’s been a decade (October 3, 2004) since he’s visited Victory Lane there. Still, his prowess on restrictor-plate tracks cannot be denied.
This Dave Rogers-led team has quietly moved Busch toward the top spot in driver points. Busch sits second with five top 10s in the Chase. In past years, Busch would fall apart in the Chase. This year it’s been just the opposite. He could be peaking at the right time.
Jimmie Johnson
This team continues to improve every week. When he stays out of trouble, Johnson is very good at Talladega. Of course, the staying out of trouble part, that will be a problem. This team has been out of sync since midsummer. A win here will be because Johnson wants it more than anyone else. He can do it.
Brad Keselowski
The only way Keselowski can salvage his brilliant season (five race wins) is to win at Talladega. There’s simply no other option for this Team Penske driver, unless he's willing to cast his fate to the results of others.
The Kansas race was a morale-breaker (he finished 36th) and last week at Charlotte…well, we all know how that one ended. He is capable of destroying the competition. He needs to deliver a career performance on Sunday.
The four-time Cup champion has six wins at Talladega, the most of any driver in the field. His position in the points (sixth) is somewhat precarious. So, why not just win and eliminate the stress about moving into the semifinal round?
Potential Chase Spoiler: Jamie McMurray
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Jamie McMurray should be in the Chase. His Keith Rodden-led team unfortunately had a slow start this season. A string of mediocre finishes, highlighted by the odd top five, was pretty much how McMurray’s season played out.
Then came the Chase races, and McMurray delivered a top 10 in the opener, followed by a pair of top fives (Loudon, Charlotte). He was in play.
Most fans forget that McMurray is very good on restrictor-plate tracks, having won at both Talladega (2009, ‘13) and Daytona (2007, ‘10). That 2007 win, by the way, was the Daytona 500. He’s also won another major—the Brickyard 400 in 2010.
"Well, like always, going to Talladega and being successful requires a considerable amount of luck," McMurray said in his pre-race media release. "I have been fortunate enough on a couple of occasions, including last year, to be lucky enough to capture a victory at Talladega. On superspeedways you have to be in the right place at the right time on the final lap to get to Victory Lane."
McMurray is the real deal, and there’s no one better to spoil the Chase party.
Well…maybe his rookie teammate Kyle Larson.
And the Winner Is...
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
His back is against the wall. And when the checkered flag falls, if Junior isn’t celebrating in Victory Lane, what arguably has been his best shot at the title, is over.
This is why Earnhardt Jr. will be in Victory Lane, celebrating his fourth win of the season on Sunday night, with his crew chief/soon-to-be television analyst, Steve Letarte.
If his five wins on the big track have taught him anything, it’s patience, it’s when to make the right move and where to make it.
He’s had two frustrating races in a row at Kansas and Charlotte where things went wrong, and he couldn’t recover. That’s not about to happen this Sunday.
"We can do it; we have won there a lot of times," Earnhardt said during the post-race press conference following last weekend's race at Charlotte. "I know what we need to do."
Nothing, except being caught up in a big wreck, will keep Junior from Victory Lane. And to be honest, unless his car is a pile of junk, even a wreck won’t stop him.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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