NBA Rookie Stock Watch: 2014-15 Preseason Edition
Thanks to summer league, training camp buzz and preseason NBA action, we're starting to get a better feel for how the 2014-15 rookies stack up.
Some of them, like Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker, have performed pretty much the way we expected. The following rookies are the ones who've either surprised or disappointed.
Unfortunately, a few rookies have been hit with the injury bug early on, and that has to affect their stock.
Stock Up: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, SG/SF
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Forget about the 29 points of production through two preseason games. It's the upside Andrew Wiggins has flashed that continues to stand out.
Against the Philadelphia 76ers, four of his five buckets were fueled by his remarkable size and athleticism. He had an and-1 finish inside, a high-flying alley-oop and two offensive tip-ins—one of which came off his lightning second jump.
In his debut against the Indiana Pacers, Wiggins got to the line 10 times without much change-of-direction ability off the dribble.
He's finding ways to score despite lacking the polish to consistently create with fluidity. Just imagine what Wiggins might look like when his handle tightens, his mid-range game improves and his body fills out.
In the meantime, it looks like he's getting comfortable with the NBA three-point arc, considering he's hit his first three attempts from downtown.
His shooting numbers are inevitably going to dip, but it's pretty clear Wiggins' jumper has the potential to become a major weapon in the arsenal.
Wiggins has flashed his defensive upside early as well, having blocked a few shots while defending on the ball, a pretty tough feat for a wing.
He'll hit the inevitable rookie wall once his shooting stroke cools off, but Wiggins looks right on track to give Minnesota just what it wants—long-term promise and just enough short-term production.
Stock Down: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics, PG/SG
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Marcus Smart's struggles from the field during summer league, where he shot just 29.4 percent, have carried over into his first NBA preseason.
Through four games, he's 7-of-29 (24.1 percent) shooting, raising the same concerns we had for him while playing at Oklahoma State.
At this point, Smart has no mid-range game. It's either a hard drive all the way or a long ball—nothing in between. He made just 27 two-point jumpers all season as a sophomore in 2013-14, per Hoop-Math.
Of Smart's 29 shots so far this preseason, 21 of them have come from downtown—even though shooting with distance remains one of his few glaring weaknesses.
He has done a nice job moving the ball and passing within the offense (five assists per game), but as a half-court scorer, he's been unable to locate any sweet spots on the floor.
Right off the bat, Smart should give Boston some pressure defense, savvy playmaking and points off drives to the rack—just not much offensive efficiency.
Stock Up: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers, PF/C
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The fact that he's been active and successfully taking contact should drive his stock up alone. But he's also been productive.
After a strong summer league, Noel bounced back from a rough preseason debut with totals of 22 points, 20 boards, six assists, four blocks and four steals over his next two games against the Charlotte Hornets and New York Knicks.
And though they've come in small doses, we've seen some things from Noel we didn't see from him at Kentucky.
A couple of times he's faced his man up and attacked him off the dribble. Against Charlotte, he nailed a jump hook after spinning into the lane before knocking down a 15-foot catch-and-shoot jumper.
He's finished off pick-and-rolls, drive-and-dumps and offensive rebounds, and he's made some nice passes throughout.
But it's on defense where he'll eventually earn his money, and that's been fairly evident early on. While his athleticism, length and instincts help protect the rim, his foot speed and reach have caused problems for opposing offenses away from the basket as well.
While his offensive game will occasionally sputter from time to time, especially without many reliable playmakers or setup men in the lineup, Noel's defensive presence isn't likely to fluctuate.
As long as Noel stays healthy, consider it a win for everyone involved.
Stock Down: Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers, PF
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Though Julius Randle has made some encouraging plays that highlight his athleticism, handle and inside instincts, he's just 11-of-28 from the floor with six turnovers in three games.
He's also averaging four fouls in only 21.3 minutes.
Randle discussed some of his early struggles after the Lakers' second preseason game against the Golden State Warriors, via ESPN Los Angeles' Arash Markazi:
"On the offensive end I was hesitating and I wasn't taking what the defense was giving me. And on the defensive end I was being a little bit too aggressive. I wanted to get up and disrupt their rhythm, but it took me out of my rhythm and I have to learn how to adjust.
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"I thought he was lost, in the first half especially," coach Byron Scott said, via Markazi. "I thought in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter he was better, but I thought in the first half the game was way too fast for him."
It wasn't just the pace.
Offensively, Randle relies too heavily on scoring around the rim, where traffic is always the heaviest. Most of his looks are contested in the paint. Though this isn't quite breaking news, he really needs to develop that jumper, which not only gives him a more balanced scoring opportunity but sets up his face-up dribble-drive game.
Regardless of what pace the game is played at, we're still going to see the occasional "wow" play from Randle. But he'll have some serious adjustments to make in order to maintain offensive consistency, and that shouldn't be news to those who watched him lean on strength and bullying as a freshman at Kentucky.
Stock Up: Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets, SF
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Bojan Bogdanovic apparently earned the trust of Brooklyn's coaching staff in training camp, considering they've started him in each of the Nets' three preseason games.
Tim Bontemps of the New York Post noted Bogdanovic's convincing play, particularly in Brooklyn's third preseason game against the Kings, while also tabbing him the likely starting small forward for opening night against the Celtics:
"Bogdanovic showed off the versatility of his offensive game, including knocking down a corner 3-pointer, scoring multiple times off post-ups of smaller guards and showing off some nice passing skills. Bogdanovic has started all three games, and unless he gets hurt in the next two weeks, he is likely to start the season opener in Boston on Oct. 29.
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There's nothing flashy or overly exciting about Bogdanovic's game, but he can knock down shots in a variety of different ways, from spot-up long-range jumpers to fallaways in the post.
Bogdanovic should ultimately see a healthy number of open looks this year with most defenses likely focusing on Brooklyn's more featured players.
Though there isn't much upside tied to Bogdanovic, you know what you're getting with him. He'll give the Nets a sense of stability on the wing this season.
Stock Down: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic, SF/PF
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Aaron Gordon isn't ready for regular NBA minutes, having turned 19 years old in September. His long-term outlook remains the same—promising—but based on exhibition results since the draft, next year could be quiet.
Despite his 6'9" size and elite-level athleticism, he shot just 35 percent in summer league, and through three preseason games, he's 7-of-19 from the floor.
Unless there's a wide-open lane or putback opportunity, chances are Gordon has to be set up by someone else. At this point, he's just not polished enough off the dribble to create his own scoring chances.
To his credit, he did knock down two three-pointers against the Hornets, but don't get used to it. He was 0-of-10 from deep in summer league, and he hit 16 total behind a shorter college arc.
As a rookie, Gordon will give the Magic some energy, a finishing target and defensive versatility—just not a threatening offensive weapon. At least not this year. Think long-term with Gordon.
Stock Up: James Ennis, Miami Heat, SG/SF
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James Ennis' standout play in Australia last year carried straight into summer league and right over to NBA preseason, where he's making a strong case to join the Heat rotation in 2014-15.
In four games, he's averaging 14.5 points on 52.9 percent shooting. Ennis' athleticism has translated to off-ball buckets as a cutter, finisher and fast-break weapon, but it's his improved perimeter-scoring arsenal that's taken him to the next step.
Ennis looks comfortable and confident shooting over screens and firing off the dribble, while his three-ball remains a threat—he's 5-of-11 from downtown this preseason.
A 6'7" athlete with long arms and an outside stroke, Ennis could find himself minutes as a three-and-D wing this year in Miami. But it appears his ceiling might be higher than most initially projected out of Long Beach State.
If he can secure a spot in coach Erik Spoelstra's rotation, there's no reason why he can't continue to expand his offensive game. Ennis' arrow is pointing up.
Stock Down: Adreian Payne, Atlanta Hawks, PF
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At 23 years old, Adreian Payne was viewed as one of the more NBA-ready big men in the class. Only he hasn't looked that way through three preseason games—he's scored just nine points in 50 minutes on 3-of-13 shooting.
His lack of strength has also been exposed a few times on the inside, where he's given up a couple of and-1s early on.
The problem for Payne is that his margin for error is tiny. There aren't many available minutes in Atlanta's frontcourt, especially with Mike Scott back as the backup power forward—a guy who essentially does the same things as Payne.
Between Scott, Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Pero Antic and Elton Brand, it's just tough to envision Payne making much of an impact anytime soon.
Stock Up: Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets, C
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Having played just 16.6 minutes a game in the Adriatic League last season, the immediate expectations for the 20-year-old Bosnian shouldn't be too high.
That's why it was impressive to see Jusuf Nurkic take it to Taj Gibson for 15 points in Denver's fourth preseason game. Nurkic overpowered Gibson in the paint on a couple different occasions, having backed him down before finishing with one hand over his shoulder.
Nurkic lacks polish, but he's got a nice feel for the rim and finds ways to put the ball in the hole without any fancy moves. If it's not a dunk or layup, chances are it's a gets-the-job-done type of flip shot.
Against the Phoenix Suns, Nurkic shot 4-of-7 for eight points while grabbing 12 boards. And against the Oklahoma City Thunder, though he only converted one bucket, he pulled in 15 rebounds (six offensive) in just 18 minutes of action.
It's no wonder he led the Adriatic League in PER last season, per DraftExpress. Nurkic is an efficient scorer and active rebounder who takes up a ton of space with that 6'11", 280-pound frame.
Minutes might be hard to come by in Denver with Timofey Mozgov on the rise and JaVale McGee returning to action, but it looks like the Nuggets clearly have something with Nurkic, whose long-term outlook is starting to really brighten up.
Stock Down: The Injured
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Mitch McGary, Oklahoma City Thunder, PF/C
After sitting out just about all of his sophomore year at Michigan following back surgery, McGary has been sent right back to the shelf with a broken foot. Word is he'll be out sometime around five to seven weeks, via Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman, which will likely put him behind the eight ball while Steven Adams rises up OKC's depth chart.
James Young, Boston Celtics, SG/SF
According to coach Brad Stevens, via the team's Twitter account, Young will be week-to-week after straining his hamstring against the Knicks in preseason. In terms of rookie minutes, it was never looking good for Young while playing behind Jeff Green, Evan Turner and Gerald Wallace.
But now Young will miss most of the preseason after missing the entire summer league following a car accident (minor concussion). This isn't the way he wanted to start his career.
Noah Vonleh, Charlotte Hornets, PF
After a dreadful summer league where Vonleh shot just 28.4 percent, the Hornets announced their prized rookie would miss six to eight weeks to repair a hernia. Vonleh ultimately missed most of training camp, and he'll likely be out the remainder of the preseason while Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams take all the reps at power forward. Hopefully this injury doesn't set back his entire rookie season.
