Atletico Madrid Have No Time to Burn in La Liga Title Defence

Seven games in, just five points back and a favourable stretch to come: What's there to worry about for Atletico Madrid in their La Liga defence? This is still October, after all.

The gap between themselves and the top is small. Seven months and 31 outings remain. Their incredible record at home is still intact. No team, regardless of their quality, is built for the rugged journey in quite the same way as the robust Atletico.

But there's more to it than that. It's not quite that simple. If Diego Simeone's men want to repeat the unthinkable, they have little time to burn.

The reason for such a paucity of time is the way Atleti are trending. In football, trends are everything—where you've come from, previous success, holds little context unless the evidence suggests more of the same awaits.

And that's the concern for Los Colchoneros.

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For all their famed togetherness, spirit and defensive solidarity in the closing weeks of their remarkable 2013-14 season, Atletico's title was built on the team's blistering opening that afforded the men from the capital some margin for error during the run-in.

The gruelling points earned late in the campaign at Athletic Bilbao, Valencia and Barcelona will be the ones most fondly remembered, but it was the team storming run to eight straight victories to open the season—that bolt to 15 wins from 17 prior to the new year—that ultimately proved decisive.

That rampant stretch saw Simeone's men hammer seven goals past Getafe, five past Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano, four past Almeria and three past strong units from Sevilla, Valencia and Levante.

The point here: Atletico's characteristic physicality was matched by firepower.

But for a considerable time now, it hasn't been.

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Indeed, if you closely examine Atletico's league performance, separating it into three distinct phases from the beginning of last season, it's starkly clear that the defending champions are riding the wrong trend.

Diego Costa's absence certainly hurts, but it's more to do with the side's combative, energy-sapping methods that have seen Atletico move towards an attritional existence this calendar year—even when Costa was still in red and white.

Period	Goals Per Game	Win %
2013-14: Before New Year	2.71	88%
2013-14: After New Year	1.48	62%
2014-15: So far	1.71	57%

After the prolific stretch to end 2013, the men from the Vicente Calderon saw their scoring average drop by almost one-and-a-half goals per game in the second half of last season.

Much like now, the attacking barrages were replaced by cagey displays, exhibitions of austerity, as Atletico fought and scrapped their way so admirably to the title.

But that state of being—surviving, not thriving—won't end in another triumph if it's maintained across an entire season. With that alarming scoring decline followed by a plateau so far in 2014-15, Simeone urgently needs to conjure some venom if his players are to defend their Spanish crown.

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Of course, the major issue for the manager is how to orchestrate waves of goals without an array of natural scorers.

Of his primary options, Mario Mandzukic is a strong and experienced presence, but he's far from the complete striker that he was signed to replace. Another new arrival, Antoine Griezmann, is an incredibly exciting talent, but that's still all he is: a talent.

Elsewhere, Raul Jimenez is a young No. 9 years away from approaching a level anything like Costa's, Alessio Cerci is little more than a secondary option and Raul Garcia will only ever be a pinch hitter in attack.

Is it any wonder, then, that Atletico have relied on goals from defenders such as Miranda and Diego Godin at the team's renowned set pieces so far this season?

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Naturally, one may question whether Atletico actually need to be more dynamic in front of goal. "Can't we build a title on defence?" the club's fans may ask.

In a different league, possibly. But this is La Liga, a division containing Barcelona (yet to concede a goal this season) and Real Madrid (25 goals in seven games). There's barely any margin for error as it is. Owning a limited attack only cuts that margin finer.

Thus, the solution, it would seem, lies in adapting the team's approach.

Unable to alter his personnel—and the impending January transfer window rarely witnesses seismic moves—Simeone must find a way to garner more dominance and flow in midfield.

He needs more chances to be created from general play, needs to allow the roles of Koke and Arda Turan to grow and needs his side's set pieces, as good as they are, to become a little more of a luxury than a necessity.

Essentially, Atletico need to spend more time in control and less time in brutal, physical exchanges.

The problem is that they don't have long to do it.