Georgia Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Odds: Analysis and Prediction

Even though they just came up with an impressive victory at Missouri, the Georgia Bulldogs are only 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five SEC road bouts. The Arkansas Razorbacks, on the other hand, are 3-0 ATS in their last three home games, including a near-upset of Alabama last week. The 'Dawgs and the Hogs get it on Saturday afternoon in Little Rock.

Point spread: Bulldogs opened as three-point favorites at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 31.2-26.9 Bulldogs

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

If the Bulldogs can beat Missouri in Columbia 34-0 without running back Todd Gurley, why couldn't they beat the Razorbacks in Little Rock? Georgia outgained Mizzou last week 379-147, racked up 210 yards on the ground, held the Tigers to 50 yards rushing, won the time of possession by a lopsided 42-18 margin and forced five turnovers.

That's how you win games and cover spreads. In place of Gurley freshman Nick Chubb ran 38 times for 143 yards and a touchdown. On the season the Bulldogs, now 5-1 overall, 3-1 and in first place in the SEC East, rank 12th in the nation in both rushing at 276 yards per game and in run defense, allowing just 102 yards per game.

Why the Arkansas Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Razorbacks seem to be making progress under Coach Bielema, considering last year they lost to Alabama 52-0 but just lost to the Tide by a 14-13 score last week. Arkansas actually outgained 'Bama 335-227 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin, but the Razorbacks committed three turnovers and had an extra-point attempt blocked.

The Hogs, now 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS on the season, have outrushed opponents by a 279-127 yards-per-game margin. They've also covered the spread in each game in which they've outrushed foes.

Smart Pick

Arkansas is still winless in 11 SEC games under Coach Bielema, but it's getting closer to snapping that streak. The Hogs played Auburn to a tie into halftime in this year's SEC opener, took Texas A&M to overtime before losing and lost by a point to Alabama. Georgia owns an edge on defense, but it's about time Arkansas broke through. So the pick here goes with the home-dog Hogs.

Betting trends

• Georgia is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games on the road.
• Arkansas is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.