Should McLaren Keep Jenson Button or Kevin Magnussen for 2015 Formula 1 Season?

Jenson Button and Kevin Magnussen, McLaren's current drivers, are fighting to save their Formula One futures.

With Fernando Alonso, the double world champion, likely to sign a contract to return to the team for 2015—Andrew Benson of BBC Sport has claimed that "it is understood a multi-year deal has been agreed and is waiting to be finalised"—there will be room for only one of Magnussen or Button at the Woking-based outfit.

It has for a long time been widely assumed that Button, the 2009 world champion, would be the one to lose out—but the 34-year-old driver has chosen the perfect time to return to his best form, recording top-five finishes in the last two races.

The most recent of which, in Sunday's Russian Grand Prix, was his best result since July's British Grand Prix, with a convincing fourth place at the Sochi Autodrom hinting that there is plenty of life in the old dog yet.

Whether this upturn in form will ultimately have an impact on McLaren's decision remains to be seen, yet it is undeniable that the team's dilemma is more difficult than it was just a matter of weeks ago.

Here, we examine both Magnussen and Button's attributes to decide who would be a suitable team-mate to Alonso for the 2015 F1 season.

Racecraft

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With 16 races of the 2014 season completed, Button has 94 points to his name while Magnussen has just 49, despite the Dane recording McLaren's best result of the season with second place at the Australian Grand Prix (he was promoted from third following Daniel Ricciardo's disqualification).

The most experienced driver on the grid was expected to have the edge over his rookie team-mate in races this season, yet the difference between the pair despite their relatively equal number of points finishes—Button has scored points on 11 occasions in contrast to Magnussen's 10—is damning.

Button's performance in the Japanese Grand Prix showed that he retains that divine talent of finding grip in treacherous conditions, while he remains as clean as ever in wheel-to-wheel combat with his scrap with Ricciardo in that race—as well as his battle with Sergio Perez in Italy last month—a reminder of his qualities.

The fact that he ultimately lost both of those fights, however, highlighted that he lacks the steeliness and aggression of his competitors.

Magnussen, in contrast, arguably races with a little too much hostility, which is at the root of his failure to threaten Button in the drivers' standings.

The raw Dane has received a number of penalties for questionable manoeuvres this season—most notably for forcing Alonso on the grass on Spa-Francorchamps' high-speed Kemmel Straight—which have overshadowed some promising performances.

As a result, Button remains the best bet if McLaren-Honda aspire to become a points-scoring machine.

1-Lap Pace

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In his debut season, Magnussen has comfortably had the upper hand over his world champion team-mate in qualifying, having finished ahead of Button in nine of the 16 Saturday sessions thus far.

Button himself has underachieved in the one-lap arena for a number of years, starting outside the top 10 on 21 occasions over the course of his five-season McLaren career.

Yet it is worth considering that Alonso, that force of nature behind the wheel of a Formula One car, is not the greatest qualifier either, which could slightly complicate matters.

Do McLaren run the risk of the Spaniard throwing the toys out of the pram by being beaten by Magnussen in qualifying on occasion?

Or does the team sacrifice achieving the best possible result for the sake of keeping Alonso content alongside Button, a driver who should more often than not be conquered over one lap?

Common sense would suggest that the former scenario is the obvious choice, although it will be interesting to note the lengths that McLaren will go to to keep Alonso onside after their difficult season together in 2007.

Leadership

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Magnussen or Button won't have a hope of guiding a team which employs Alonso, making their respective leadership skills seem almost irrelevant.

The Spaniard, the political animal that he is, would almost certainly demand No. 1 status at McLaren, which would leave the second driver in the understated rear-gunner position.

And the man more suited to that, you suspect, will be the one relieved just to keep his F1 career alive.

Button, in his time alongside Lewis Hamilton between 2010 and 2012, proved that he can thrive in the underdog role and emerge as the ideal backup option when the lead driver misfires.

Also in the British driver's favour, of course, is his relationship with Honda, McLaren's power unit supplier from next year.

Button drove for the Japanese manufacturer's works team between 2006 and 2008, recording one Grand Prix win, and would be an important figure in building bridges between the two companies as they work together for the first time since 1992, with an Alonso-Button alliance certain to be one of the most PR-friendly partnerships on the grid.

Long-Term Potential

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At just 22, it is obvious that Magnussen has more years ahead of him than Button, who will be 35 when the 2015 campaign commences next March.

There is little doubt that, as he gains more experience, the Dane will grow in maturity and eradicate the errors that have cast a shadow over his debut season, with Eric Boullier, the team's racing director, telling a McLaren-Mercedes phone-in (h/t Formula1.com) that Magnussen has struggled with "rookie syndrome" in 2014.

The question hanging over Magnussen, however, is whether he can develop into a driver of world championship-winning standard and represent McLaren for several years to come.

A failure to showcase those qualities, indeed, led to Perez, Magnussen's predecessor, being released by the team at the end of last year.

Magnussen's first-race podium finish in Australia hinted at what he can become if provided with adequate machinery—something he has been denied ever since the season opener—but he will not be able to cling on to the memories of the Albert Park event for too much longer.

Conclusion

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The choice between Magnussen and Button to partner Alonso for 2015 is much tougher than first meets the eye for McLaren, with both contenders possessing clear positives and negatives.

While Button is one of the most shrewd drivers on the current grid as well as a model professional, Magnussen represents the excitement of youth and a chance for the organisation to build a superstar in their own image.

The Dane's status as a graduate of the team's young driver scheme gives him the high ground—after all, why would McLaren promote him to a race seat to dump him after just one season?—yet Button's timely return to form in recent weeks confirms that he remains as good a racing driver as anyone.

Ultimately, the decision comes down to two key questions.

Firstly, just how accommodating will McLaren and Honda be to Alonso, their marquee signing?

Will they partner him with a known quantity, a driver who is edging towards the end of his career? Or will they throw him the curveball that is the youngster whose true potential is as yet unknown?

And secondly—and most importantly—just how long will it take before the team can realistically challenge for world championships?

If Honda aim to return to Formula One with a bang and achieve instant success, Button would be the wisest option.

But if, instead, the comeback is based on, say, a three-year plan, the team must allow Magnussen to grow in a secure environment and provide him with the opportunity to emerge as one of the sport's elite drivers.