Why Roman Harper Isn't to Blame for Panthers' Troubles in Preventing Long Runs
Through six weeks, the Carolina Panthers are allowing a stunning 140.2 rushing yards per game to opponents, just a year after holding opponents to 86.9 yards per game on the ground—a figure that was good for second best in the league.
And this isn't simply the result of opponents making a greater commitment to the run this season—while they are attempting more runs per game in 2014 compared to 2013 (25.3 to 22.0 respectively), they are also picking up an extra 1.5 yards per carry, putting the Panthers dead last in the league at 5.5 yards per carry allowed.
You don't have to look far past the raw statistics to figure out what problem is plaguing Carolina's run defense: They're allowing too many explosive runs.
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In 2013, they allowed no runs of 50 or more yards, but through six games in 2014, they've already allowed four such runs. Just these four plays account for nearly one third (32.6 percent to be precise) of the 841 total rushing yards the team has allowed on the season. Erase them from the books and Panthers rushing average allowed falls to an impressive 3.8.
When a defense is notoriously prone to allowing big plays, the responsibility is often pinned on the safeties; sometimes deservedly so, but, in other cases, such blind allocation of blame can be completely baseless and unfair—as is the case with Roman Harper, the Panthers starting strong safety.
In the eyes of many, Harper has failed to live up to the bar set by the team's 2013 starter, Mike Mitchell, who made a name for himself in Carolina with his hard-nosed playing style and consistent run support. But a look at the film shows that Harper is not to blame for any of the long runs this defense has allowed this season and that he actually has been doing a better job than Mitchell against the run.
Let's first take a look at Le'Veon Bell's 81-yard run against Carolina in Week 3. Two effective double-teams washed defensive tackle Star Lotulelei down inside and kept defensive end Charles Johnson from crashing the gap, leaving linebacker Thomas Davis as the last line of defense.
Harper's view of Bell was temporarily compromised, but he maintained outside contain in case the shifty Bell decided to bounce the play out to the right side of the line, as he often does.
In the end, Davis made the right read but was not quick enough to make a proper tackle on the ball-carrier, only getting an extended arm on Bell, who brushed it off and was off to the races before free safety Thomas DeCoud was able to chase him down at Carolina's own 9-yard line.
The following play is a 50-yard run by LeGarrette Blount that came in the fourth quarter of the same game. As Blount takes the handoff, Harper quickly approaches the line of scrimmage from his initial position inside the box and forces Blount to cut back to the inside of the defense, where Mario Addison should be if he can fight across the face of tight end Heath Miller (83).
Addison does shed Miller's block, but Blount shoves him to the ground with a strong stiff arm and bounces the play to the outside, where Davis is eating a block rather than keeping his outside arm free so that he can make a play on Blount.
Once Blount is free of the front line of defense, DeCoud has the best chance to make a play, but he takes a poor angle and dives at the ball-carrier's feet, hardly slowing him down before he scampers for 50 yards and takes the ball inside Carolina's own 10-yard line.
The following play is an excellent example of how effective Harper can be as a run-supporting box safety, even in one-on-one situations with one of the shiftiest running backs in the NFL. As Bell takes the handoff, he keeps his eyes looking to the linebackers opposite Harper, attempting to get the safety to bite inside and open up room for Bell to bounce the run outside for an easy trot into the end zone.
Harper remains disciplined and closes the gap from the outside in, allowing Bell to dance around in the backfield while he quickly arrives at the line of scrimmage.
Harper wraps up Bell for a gain of just one yard and sets up a difficult 2nd-and-goal situation from the 8-yard line.
The final play we'll look at is Cincinnati's Gio Bernard's 89-yard touchdown run from last week's game. From the snap to the completion of the handoff to Bernard, Harper moves from out of screen and beyond the first-down line to nearing the line of scrimmage and appearing in Bernard's peripheral vision, encouraging him to take the ball up the middle, where the Panthers have a seven-on-six-man advantage.
The advantage that the Panthers have is quickly nullified because Bengals right tackle Andre Smith gets the defensive tackle Lotulelei off balance and washes him down inside, taking the right side of the Panthers defensive line, as well as linebacker Luke Kuechly, out of the play. Thomas Davis attempts to escape the pursuit of a Bengals guard, but overpursues Bernard.
Melvin White also comes in from the cornerback position out of control, and a borderline block in the back takes him and Harper out of the play all at once.
DeCoud, who lined up in deep center-field position, takes another poor angle, and Bernard is off to the races.
The other 50-plus-yard run the Panthers allowed this season—a 54-yarder courtesy of Tampa Bay's Jorvorskie Lane—came on a play where Harper was once again fulfilling his outside contain responsibilities. The point is that the content of each play matters far more than the end result when assigning responsibility to specific players.
Harper has done an excellent job at replacing Mitchell in the role of box safety and is one of the surest tacklers currently on the Panthers defense. He may not have the speed or physicality at this stage of his career to fly around and deliver as many cringe-inducing hits as Mitchell did, but he's playing technically sound football and shouldn't be the scapegoat for Carolina's struggles against the run.
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