MLB Rumors: All the Early Whispers of the Upcoming Offseason
With the American League and National League Championship Series well underway, the MLB offseason rumors and whispers are in full stride.
Now, these ruminations aren’t limited to those teams that are no longer playing baseball games that matter. The reality is that organizations can never stop looking for ways to improve, even when they are already among the game’s best.
We are going to look at the early buzz around MLB as it pertains to offseason activity. That could mean that free agency is on the agenda, or it could be that a potential trade is in the works. It could also regard a front office restructuring that took the baseball world by surprise.
To be clear, this isn’t going to cover all of the chatter regarding the upcoming offseason. We will look at the major storylines.
Here are the early whispers for the upcoming MLB offseason.
The Los Angeles Dodgers Are in Transition
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As ESPN Los Angeles' Ramona Shelburne noted, “a handful of teams have tried unsuccessfully to poach” Andrew Friedman from the Tampa Bay Rays over the years. Well, the Los Angeles Dodgers did just that, hiring Friedman to be the club’s president of baseball operations on Tuesday.
He has a lot of work ahead of him.
Which outfielder, for example, will be on the move this offseason. According to Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller, it will be Andre Ethier. Tim Kawakami from the San Jose Mercury News posited that Yasiel Puig would be a fine target for Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane.
Either way, someone is on the move.
Then there is the recent retirement of Josh Beckett and the cavern that is the Dodgers bullpen. There are just too many holes on the staff to go into 2015 with anything close to the group that finished this season losing in the National League Division Series.
Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is scheduled to hit free agency, and no one has any idea what is going to happen there. He could accept a qualifying offer and return for one season, reject a qualifying offer and end up in limbo, akin to what happened to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales this past season, or turn down the offer and sign a five-year deal worth $100 million.
Then there is A.J. Ellis. Technically, he is eligible for arbitration, but Ellis runs the risk of being non-tendered with the hope that he will sign at a lower cost, per MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick.
Like we said, there is going to be quite a bit of turnover. Expect big changes on all fronts as Friedman digs in.
The List of Suitors for James Shields Is Now One Team Longer
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For almost everyone involved, it was a forgone conclusion that Kansas City Royals right-hander James Shields would end up with a different organization next season.
That belief was rooted in the fact that Royals general manager Dayton Moore simply didn’t have the financial flexibility to compete with the likes of the Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and any other club that had deeper pockets. It was a sound thought process.
Well, according the CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, that may not be the case:
"The Royals were originally believed to have a shot to keep Shields only if they went far in the playoffs, and sources say the team has decided by now, after reaching the ALCS, that they will make that effort. The Royals told Shields' agent, Page Odle, around the time of the trade deadline that they'd be back in touch after the season, which was a hopeful sign. And now with their amazing postseason run, which will bolster their revenues big-time -- they have decided they will indeed try to keep him with a new multiyear deal.
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And if you think about the situation pragmatically, re-signing Shields makes more sense than going after another pitcher on the open market.
Consider: He has started at least 30 games and tossed over 200 innings every season since 2007. He has also finished with an ERA+ over 100 each season during that span, save the 2010 campaign.
In other words, the club already has the answer. Why let him go?
What Are the Ramifications of Moving Alex Rodriguez to First Base?
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New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman had some interesting thoughts on Alex Rodriguez. This from ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand:
"I don't think it's safe to assume that he can play third base. With his age and missing a full year, you have to have some perspective. This is a very difficult game. Alex is up for that challenge, but I think it's safer to assume that might not be something that he can handle the whole year.
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Marchand also noted that manager Joe Girardi had a conversation with the polarizing Rodriguez about making a move to first base, at least on a part-time basis.
If Rodriguez does move to first, it would open up a bevy of options this offseason, including bringing back Chase Headley, who acquitted himself well following his acquisition from the San Diego Padres.
It could also mean that Martin Prado, brought over from the Arizona Diamondbacks, could become the everyday third baseman, opening up financial resources as Cashman looks to add depth to the rotation or bring David Robertson back to be the club’s closer.
Either way, an unfortunate reality exists. Cashman can’t afford to wait to decide what to do with his roster until Rodriguez proves if he is healthy enough to play third during spring training. By then, most of the viable options will be off the market.
He—and thereby the Yankees—will be best served by proactively planning a position switch. Expect this to be the topic of much consternation this offseason.
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Is A.J. Burnett Pitching Next Season or Not?
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According to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman: “Indications are that there's a good chance A.J. Burnett will return to pitch in the majors in 2015.”
That comes in the wake of rumblings that the right-hander would call it a career after going 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA, 4.14 FIP and a poor 1.409 WHIP in 2014. He didn’t seem to have very much in the tank for a majority of the season.
And while nothing is certain regarding his status for next season, Burnett’s decision will impact what Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. does this offseason.
To start, it will limit the Phillies' payroll flexibility. There is no way that Burnett’s contact won’t alter the dollars that will be allocated toward free agency.
Another thing to consider is that given the injuries and poor performances the club dealt with this past season, an argument can be made that if Burnett pitches like he did in 2013 (10-11, 3.30 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.215 WHIP), the Phillies could be a competitive club in 2015 with the roster they currently have. That is, of course, if everything goes according to plan.
Either way, the sooner Burnett decides on what he wants to do, the better. Until then, this is going to be one of the biggest MLB storylines in the City of Brotherly Love.
Victor Martinez Prefers to Stay with the Detroit Tigers, But....
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Larry Stone from The Seattle Times thinks that he would be a fine fit with the Seattle Mariners.
CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine argued that he would provide “a heck of a lot more” to the Chicago White Sox “than just a potent, switch-hitting bat.”
There are many more teams that need a guy like him in the lineup, but it’s becoming less likely each passing day that Victor Martinez will be playing for anyone other than the Detroit Tigers in 2015.
From The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo:
"This may not be a J.J. Hardy situation where he signs before free agency. But we do know this, according to a major league source familiar with Martinez: He prefers to work something out with the Tigers, so they will get first crack at him. If he elects free agency, comfort of the workplace will be extremely important.
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All of that said, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski needs to finalize a contract for the heart of his lineup on the ASAP. If it comes down to extending a qualifying offer, Martinez could be persuaded to leave the Motor City for a contract that pays him more money than what the Tigers are prepared to offer.
After all, there is more than one club that can offer him “comfort of the workplace” that isn't managed by Brad Ausmus.
Where, Oh Where, Will Yasmany Tomas Land?
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Among other things, Dennis Lin from the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks that new general manager A.J. Preller should sign Yasmany Tomas because the San Diego Padres are “in desperate need of a bat.”
MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez recently noted that joining the Padres in their pursuit are the Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers.
And there are surely other clubs that are going to make a run at adding the outfielder, who was declared a free agent on Oct. 2, per his agent, Jay Alou. Flat out, he is as hyped as Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes.
As far as a contract goes, Chris Cotillo from MLB Daily Dish opines that it will likely be north of the seven-year, $72.5 million deal that Rusney Castillo signed with the Boston Red Sox. Given the recent track record of other free agents out of Cuba, it could be a steal.
Expect a decision on a final destination to arrive rather quickly, as private workouts have been held and teams want to begin searching for other alternatives should they fail to land the power hitter.
Will Jake Peavy Pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals Next Season?
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As with any free agent, no one knows where Jake Peavy is going to pitch next season. Not that there aren’t varying opinions of course.
The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, for example, thinks the right-hander has pitched his way into “a multiyear deal and it’ll probably be with [the] San Francisco Giants."
Others think that the St. Louis Cardinals are a likely suitor. You can count CSN Bay Area’s Andrew Baggarly among them. Heck, even Peavy thought he was headed to the Cardinals before the Giants eventually landed him. “I thought it was really close, to be honest with you,“ Peavy said, via Henry Schulman from the San Francisco Chronicle.
Now, while Baggarly openly pondered whether or not Peavy would end up with the Cardinals, he did note that the Giants know what they have, writing that “they will make re-signing him a priority, and there already have been pencil-sketch conversations.”
We shall see where this goes, but one thing is certain: Peavy has opened up some financial windows with his performance following his trade from the Red Sox to the Giants.
The Big Two Will Set the Stage for the Other Free Agent Starting Pitchers
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Every single club in MLB would love to have Max Scherzer or Jon Lester at the top of the rotation. There is no way that an argument can be made to the contrary. The two are that good.
Don’t interpret that the wrong way, though.
Wanting to have a guy on the 25-man roster and having the financial might and utter disregard for the eventual collapse of his abilities are two different things.
One thing is guaranteed when we speak of Lester and Scherzer: They will make a lot of money on a contract that extends several years past the expected life on their pitching arms. Look no further than CC Sabathia and, to an extent, Justin Verlander for examples of pitchers who inked deals only to fail to live up to the massive dollar amounts.
Either way, they will dominate the rumor mill this offseason for two reasons.
First off, the size of their contracts will be enormous. Second, their status will determine how much and where other free-agent hurlers like Brandon McCarthy and Francisco Liriano land.
Nelson Cruz May Not Be on the Market at All
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Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Nelson Cruz could end up on the Rangers or Yankees, who "will make bids," per Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe. He could end up with the Mariners, who reportedly had a deal in place last offseason, only to have it fall through because of a veto from ownership, according to Bob Dutton from The News-Tribune.
Then again, he may not be going anywhere.
As Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently tweeted, general manager Dan Duquette is "pushing to complete [a] deal with Cruz, who recently changed agents.” That news came on the same day the Orioles extended the contract of J.J. Hardy, indicating that Duquette has every intention of maintaining the same nucleus for the foreseeable future.
And as Bleacher Report’s Anthony Witrado noted, getting a deal done with the power hitter “gives them a solid middle of the order for the next few seasons and cost certainty for that part of the lineup without having to completely bust open the piggy bank.”
On the year, Cruz put up a .271/.333/.525 slash line with 40 home runs, 108 RBI and 32 doubles. Going into Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, he was slashing out at .476/.500/.810 with two home runs and seven RBI in 21 at-bats this postseason.
There Are Third Basemen to Be Had on the Open Market
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If we include Hanley Ramirez in the conversation, the free-agent market at third base is the deepest it’s been for some time.
Take Chase Headley as an example. Once given up as a lost cause following a disastrous 2013 campaign, he revived his career following a trade to the New York Yankees, slashing out at .262/.371/.398 with six home runs and 17 RBI in 191 at-bats in the Bronx.
Another thing to keep in mind regarding Headley is that, according to FanGraphs, he was hands down the best defensive third baseman in MLB. To be sure, Manny Machado would have had something to say about that, as would Brett Lawrie had he not battled injuries and been moved to second base, but the larger point remains: Headley can still play the game.
And let’s not forget about Pablo Sandoval.
All he’s done over his career is put up a .294/.346/ slash line with 106 home runs, 192 doubles and 462 RBI. His is easily one of the most productive hitters to man the hot corner over the past six seasons. And don’t overlook his ability with a glove, as he has finished tied for sixth in MLB with a 5.3 defensive ranting, per those same splits at FanGraphs.
One thing that separates Headley from Ramirez and Sandoval is the fact that he’s not eligible to have a qualifying offer tied to him since he was traded. That will likely make him a bit more attractive—albeit on a shorter contract—to several clubs.
Is David Robertson Going Anywhere This Offseason?
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Forget the 39 saves and 96 strikeouts he compiled over 63 appearances this past season. David Robertson has been on point since he arrived in the big leagues.
To that end, he put up a 2.76 ERA and 2.76 FIP and averaged 11.7 strikeouts every nine innings from 2008 through 2013, per Baseball-Reference. True, he really emerged during the 2011 season, but he was still a fine reliever before becoming part of the national conversation.
And because of his past success, he will join Andrew Miller as the most sought-after free-agent relievers on the market—if he gets there.
As Joel Sherman from the New York Post posits, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will undoubtedly extend Robertson a $15.3 million qualifying offer, and the right-hander will be the first player to accept one.
Sherman offers a litany of reasons, but they all boil down to this:
"So in accepting the qualifying offer, Robertson would avoid the uncertainty that could come with his market while guaranteeing at least $15.3 million with the likelihood the Yankees will negotiate a multi-year deal.
Plus, even if he just does the one-year deal, and the Yankees qualify him again, the qualifying offer likely will be more than $16 million next offseason. In that scenario, Robertson would wind up with what would amount to a two-year, $32 million-ish contract.
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As it stands, Robertson’s domino is one that may never fall. And if he ends up staying put, it will send other clubs that need late-inning relief running into the arms of guys like Luke Gregerson, Koji Uehara and Francisco Rodriguez.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.
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