Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Projections Following Week 7
Week 7 of the college football season served to highlight one strange truth about 2014—the state of Mississippi is king.
Just one week after Mississippi State and Ole Miss scored landmark wins, the two Magnolia State schools once again stole the spotlight. Wins over Auburn and Alabama, respectively, officially solidified their status as College Football Playoff contenders.
But the two SEC squads weren't the only ones staking their claim to one of those four precious spots. There was plenty of other action that went down in Week 7 to shake up the title picture. Here's a look at the latest projections for the playoff and other marquee bowls heading into Week 8:
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| Championship Bowl | Jan. 12 | Arlington, Texas | Semifinal winners | Florida State vs. Mississippi State |
| Sugar Bowl | Jan. 1 | New Orleans, Louisiana | Semifinal | Mississippi State vs. Michigan State |
| Rose Bowl | Jan. 1 | Pasadena, California | Semifinal | Florida State vs. Baylor |
| Cotton Bowl | Jan. 1 | Arlington, Texas | At-Large vs. At-Large | TCU vs. Ohio State |
| Orange Bowl | Dec. 31 | Miami, Florida | ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame | Clemson vs. Notre Dame |
| Fiesta Bowl | Dec. 31 | Glendale, Arizona | At-Large vs. At-Large | Ole Miss vs. Oregon |
| Peach Bowl | Dec. 31 | Atlanta, Georgia | At-Large vs. At-Large | Georgia vs. East Carolina |
The latest AP Top 25 Poll can be viewed here.
The Projected Field
Mississippi State
Mississippi State's meteoric rise sees them atop the college football world. For the third consecutive week, the Bulldogs took on a Top 10 team and came away victorious with their win over Auburn. As ESPN College Football points out, head coach Dan Mullen has led an unprecedented jump up the AP poll in the process:
One win over a Top 10 squad can be labeled a fluke. This is college football, after all. But the way quarterback Dak Prescott and Mississippi State have handled their brutal schedule has been anything but a fluke. With a week to recuperate before taking on Kentucky, Arkansas and UT-Martin, Starkville is only going to keep the hype train rolling as its team clings to that No. 1 ranking.
Florida State
No, this iteration of the Seminoles isn't the same marauding team we saw in 2014. Close calls against Clemson and NC State proved that.
But that doesn't mean Florida State won't be making an appearance in the inaugural playoff. It simply means the Seminoles will need to work harder than they did last season to get there.
With Clemson already out of the way, the Seminoles have no more conference games against opponents who are currently ranked. Yet a marquee matchup in Week 8 provides them the perfect stage to add a signature win to their resume against Notre Dame in Tallahassee.
And if you don't think that's enough to make their resume strong enough, do you really think the committee will leave an undefeated defending champion on the outside looking in?
Baylor
No team outside of Mississippi was a bigger winner in Week 7 than Baylor. Coming into the game with zero signature wins, head coach Art Briles and Co. finally got the chance to prove themselves and came through in a big way against TCU.
Unlike last year's Bears, this Baylor team has shown early that they can win in multiple ways. With quarterback Bryce Petty and the usually high-octane offense failing against Texas in Week 6, Baylor was able to grind out a 28-7 win thanks to a defense that ranked sixth in FEI defensive efficiency going into Week 7, per Football Outsiders.
But against No. 9 TCU, it was back to the air for the Bears, as Petty threw for over 500 yards in an offensive shootout that saw Baylor overcome a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter. College GameDay provided some insight on the team's Big 12 title chances:
As the favorite to win the Big 12, Baylor is now in a great position to be a part of the playoff. It's difficult to envision a scenario in which the champion of the conference is not included in the tournament.
Michigan State
Back when Michigan State lost to Oregon and the rest of the Big 10 subsequently decided to lay a massive egg, it appeared that the storied conference would be left in the cold come January.
However, those notions may have been a bit premature. Despite the loss in Eugene, Sparty still finds itself at No. 8 in the most recent AP poll.
The polls obviously don't officially factor into the selection committee's process. However, the rankings serve as a reminder that the Spartans aren't as far off as some may believe when it comes to getting back in the top four.
With plenty of weeks left for the teams ahead of Michigan State to fall, all the Spartans have to do is continue to win to rise up the polls. With Ohio State remaining the only ranked team on the schedule, there's a strong chance an 11-1 Michigan State will get a Big 10 Championship Game to prove it belongs in the tournament.
Outside Looking in
Oregon, Notre Dame, Ole Miss and Georgia
Finishing just outside of the projected playoff, this list contains teams that will look to be the first in line should one of the above four teams falter somewhere the rest of the way.
Headlining this group of course is Mississippi, which currently resides at No. 3 in the AP poll but could be the victim of scheduling. With the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State to close out the regular season, it seems unlikely that both programs would get playoff invitations with one having a loss that late in the season.
However, one team whose loss might not look that bad is Notre Dame. The Irish haven't blemished their record quite yet, but they are 13.5-point underdogs to Florida State this week, per Oddsshark.com. As long as they play respectably enough to cover that spread and manage a second-half slate that includes USC and Arizona State, they'll have a hard time being denied a playoff berth.
Georgia, on the other hand, will have to rely on the timing of its loss rather than the quality of opponent. South Carolina hasn't looked great since losing to the Dawgs; however, head coach Mark Richt's greatest contender in the SEC East is Kentucky. Let that sink in.
With a spot in the SEC Championship Game looking like a near lock, it would be silly to count Georgia out just yet.
Finally, there's Oregon. The Ducks showcased exactly why college football is a sport that can drive prognosticators wild with a convincing 42-30 victory over UCLA. Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports commented on the win's impact in regard to their playoff chances:
A home loss to an Arizona team that lost the next week to USC is a tough one to explain to committee members. But it's important to remember that the Ducks still have a game against Stanford and potential Pac-12 Championship Game to prove themselves.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
