The Biggest NASCAR Storylines Ahead of the Sprint Cup Series at Talladega II
Up next, it’s the main event. It’s the show everyone has waited for all season long.
No, it’s not the season-ending finale. That comes later at Homestead.
This Sunday, it’s the rock’em, sock’em, bumper-car-smash-em-up also called the Geico 500.
You’ll see racing in packs at 200 mph, where one small mistake can take a driver and about a dozen (or more) of his friends out of contention.
It’s the final race of the Contender Round of the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup, and after it’s over, four drivers will be making their exit stage left.
While the race will take center stage, here are the other stories you’ll be following in the week leading up to the Geico 500.
Determining the Scenarios for the Chase Field
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Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick have secured a spot in the Eliminator Round based upon their wins at Kansas Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway, respectively.
Shown below are the finishes each driver needs in Sunday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway in order to guarantee a spot in the Eliminator Round, regardless of the finish of any other driver:
Kyle Busch: 24th or better; 25th and at least one lap led; 26th and most laps led
Ryan Newman: 19th or better; 20th and at least one lap led; 21st and most laps led
Carl Edwards: 18th or better; 19th and at least one lap led; 20th and most laps led
Jeff Gordon: 16th or better; 17th and at least one lap led; 18th and most laps led
Denny Hamlin: 15th or better; 16th and at least one lap led; 17th and most laps led
Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have little choice but to win at Talladega.
And only one of them can do that.
*Clinch scenarios courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications
Emotions Remain After Contentious Charlotte Race
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Although it’s been several days since the Bank of America 500, fans are still taking to social media to discuss the heated exchanges that followed the race.
Brad Keselowski took his anger out on both Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth following the race, and fans were both supportive and condemning of his actions.
Many observers expected that NASCAR officials would impose some kind of penalty on Keselowski.
They did.
Keselowski was fined $50,000 for what was deemed "actions detrimental to stock car racing," and he was placed on probation for the next four NASCAR races. This is based on the contact between Keselowski and Kenseth on pit road, long after Kenseth had unhooked his safety belts and removed his racing helmet.
In what may have been a surprise move by NASCAR officials, Tony Stewart was fined $25,000 as well and placed on probation for the next four NASCAR races. This is because after Keselowski hit Kenseth on pit road, Keselowski's Ford Fusion slid into the back of Stewart's Chevrolet, pushing it forward several feet. Stewart by this time had already unhooked his seat belts. Incensed by Keselowski's actions, Stewart put his car into reverse and slammed into the front end of Keselowski's car. His display of anger, arguably justifiable, was deemed unwarranted by NASCAR officials.
The passion and raw emotion shown by Keselowski and Stewart is just what NASCAR needs more of. However, NASCAR is not UFC. Given the recent events surrounding auto racing and heated confrontations, the drivers could have resolved their issues differently.
Bottom line: While the drivers let their tempers get the best of them, the timing of the little dust-up at Charlotte couldn't have been scripted any better. The video of Kenseth and Keselowski fighting made rounds on every sports program, both nationally and locally. It’s hopefully sparked additional interest among casual fans of the sport who will tune in to what arguably will be the most important race in the Chase so far.
Season Coming to an End for Mr. Six-Time?
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Six-time champion Jimmie Johnson is in a tough spot. A "between a rock and a hard place" kind of tough spot.
He sits 11th in points heading into Talladega with the cutoff in points for the next round being eighth. Points are no longer a part of the discussion. The only way Johnson can move on to the next round is to win at Talladega.
That’s not an impossible task for a driver and team that have done it before. In fact, they’ve done it twice before, but not since the spring race in 2011. Before that, Johnson won in the spring of 2009.
He’s started from the pole four times, and there’s certainly more than a slim chance that Johnson can win the pole again and win the race. But there’s 42 other drivers and teams that want to win and two other drivers—Brad Keselowski and Dale Earnhardt Jr.—whose only other path to the Eliminator Round is to win.
It's odd to even be talking about Johnson in terms of his not being a part of the championship race at Homestead. But this team doesn’t seem to have that spark, that sizzle it's shown in the past. While Johnson is certainly competitive, he’s not shown that dominant style we're so accustomed to seeing that makes winning this weekend seem more like a sure thing than a giant maybe.
If Johnson does go on to win Sunday, it won’t necessarily make him the favorite for the title. That is still Kevin Harvick, in my opinion. But it will be some compensation for a tough season in which the competition may have finally caught up with, and in some cases moved past, the No. 48.
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Last-Chance Dance for Junior at Talladega
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Like his teammate Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr. faces elimination from the Chase after Sunday's race.
But unlike his teammate, Earnhardt Jr. comes to Talladega as a solid pick to win based on his history at the 2.66-mile track. He's won there five times before—in 2001, twice in 2002, in 2003 and in 2004.
Yes, it has been 10 years since he’s won. But it’s been that long since Junior has come to Talladega with a car that’s capable of winning and a strong need to win.
Of the three drivers that need to win to move forward this weekend, Earnhardt is likely the one who can do it. Faced with the threat of elimination from the Chase, Junior is likely to win the pole and then go on to dominate the race.
When asked how he would be approaching Talladega after his difficult night at Charlotte last weekend, Earnhardt said, "Go out there and win it. We can do it; we have won there a lot of time. I know what we need to do. We will just have to build a fast car and hope that we don't have any gremlins and try to go out there and win it.
Expect that Junior will be up front and in the mix from the drop of the green flag Sunday. After all, this is NASCAR, right? And the Earnhardt name still creates the biggest story.
Kyle Busch Continues to Run Under the Radar
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In the “what have you done for me lately” category, Kyle Busch has done a lot.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has quietly had a very good run in the Chase, with top-10 finishes in every race. His third at Kansas two weeks ago was his best finish since the Brickyard 400 in July.
Busch and his Dave Rogers-led team just might be peaking at the right time.
“It certainly feels good that we’re heading in the right direction at the right time of the year," Busch said in his team's pre-race media release. "It’s all about peaking at the right time and hopefully we haven’t peaked, yet, and we still have a way to climb.
Talladega isn’t one of Busch’s better tracks, although he won there back in 2008. And he’s not the best restrictor-plate racer, which means he usually isn't in the right place at the right time. So this weekend might be Busch’s one mulligan race, which might be coming at the right time. He’s second in points and could afford an “off” race.
But the other side of that coin is that if Busch has a great race, he’ll definitely become part of the conversation about the final four drivers who will compete for the trophy at Homestead.
Ryan Newman: Winless Yet Poised to Move on to Next Round in Chase
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One of the scenarios for the Chase that few have wanted to talk about, but that looms large, is that a driver could win the championship without winning a race all season long.
Matt Kenseth almost did it in 2003, which led to the birth of the Chase format. Kenseth had only one win that season.
Ryan Newman, who sits fourth in points and could comfortably move on to the Eliminator Round with a solid top-10 finish on Sunday, is working the system skillfully. After Sunday's race, if he's in the top eight in driver points, he moves on to the Eliminator Round of the Chase. Then, with solid top-10 runs in the three races of that round, Newman could find himself one of the four drivers who will be racing for the title in the season finale.
Once in the finale, he would need to be the highest-finishing driver of the four racing for the title, meaning he wouldn't even have to win the finale, either.
"There is going to be some different approaches no doubt at Talladega, but I don't see it as added pressure," Newman said in his team's pre-race media release. "I still take the same approach to the first Talladega as I do the second Talladega. You're still racing for points and positions and obviously a win to keep yourself in the Chase and on to the next bracket."
Even if Newman were to take the title without winning a race, we wouldn't necessarily see another radical change to the championship format, which has undergone nearly constant change since its inception.
What it will reveal, though, is that the system is flawed and not perfect, much like the sport it represents. And it should be left alone.
Even if the champion goes winless.
Downsizing Continues as NASCAR Speedways Enhance Racing Experience
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One non-Chase story that caught our eye this week was the ongoing downsizing at many of NASCAR’s race tracks.
K.I. White of Newszap.com reported on Dover International Speedway’s removal of grandstands to lower its seating capacity. It’s all part of a major upgrade underway at the facility (which recently hosted a race in the Chase, September 26), one that also includes upgrades to the catch fence—a critical safety item.
As White points out, there are several other tracks that have removed or upgraded their seating in the past year to be more in line with customer demand.
Long gone are the days when a track like Dover could pack the place with an overflowing crowd of 130,000 people. I’ve been to those races, and while it's exciting to see such a huge gathering of loud and supportive fans, it's also a major nightmare for traffic and the track’s infrastructure.
Lowering the seating capacity at race tracks, which some see as a negative for the sport, is a smart move. It makes for a more comfortable environment for those fans who attend the race and a much more attractive incentive for those who are thinking of attending.
The best way to enjoy and appreciate a NASCAR event is in person. The television broadcasts, though they do their best to not annoy fans while keeping everyone informed of what is happening on the track, don’t come close to conveying the electric atmosphere that is a NASCAR Sprint Cup event.
Tracks like Dover and Daytona International Speedway, which is undergoing a multimillion dollar upgrade and face-lift, should be shrines to speed. Places that make fans and sponsors feel comfortable and at home.
As NASCAR itself undergoes a bit of a change with regard to the growth of the digital space into how fans watch racing, watching it in person must remain the best experience in all of sports.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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