LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Complete Game Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats have a better record than the LSU Tigers. That is not a typo, nor a reference to basketball.
Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops has led his team to a 5-1 record with a 2-1 mark in conference play. Stoops' two conference victories came against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, and his team was a bad call away from beating Florida in "The Swamp."
LSU earned its first conference win in the Gators' habitat last Saturday thanks to some clutch playmaking in the fourth quarter. The 5-2 Tigers will look to become bowl eligible for the 10th straight season under head coach Les Miles Saturday.
The last time the Wildcats were 5-1 was in 2007. They were able to make it 6-1 after a thrilling triple-overtime victory over LSU. The two would not meet again until 2011, when the Tigers suffocated the Wildcats 35-7.
Here is a preview of this week's matchup.
What You Need to Know
Time: 6:30 p.m. CST
Place: Tiger Stadium; Baton Rouge, La.
TV: SEC Network
Spread: LSU by 10.5, via Oddsshark.com
LSU Keys to Victory
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Limit Turnovers
LSU quarterback Anthony Jennings was a mediocre 10-of-21 for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Gators. But Jennings didn't commit a turnover, nor did the Tigers.
Kentucky is tied for the conference lead in turnovers created with 16 and second in turnover margin with +8. Defensive end Bud Dupree and safety A.J. Stamps are just two of many turnover machines on Kentucky's defense.
LSU has also created 16 turnovers with a margin of +8. The winner of the turnover battle will likely win this game.
Win Line of Scrimmage
The Tigers put in their best defensive performance of the season against Florida, as they held the Gators to 306 total yards. The key was improved defensive tackle play from Christian LaCouture and Davon Godchaux.
Unfortunately for LSU, Kentucky's quarterback Patrick Towles and running back Jojo Kemp are massive upgrades from what Florida had to offer. The Tigers will need to be disruptive up front to give Towles and Kemp a tough time.
The LSU offensive line was efficient against a talented Gators defense. Offensive line coach Jeff Grimes will need to his group to continue their stellar play against Dupree and the Wildcats defensive front.
Kentucky Keys to Victory
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Make Explosive Plays
LSU's defense is prone to giving up big plays. Cornerback Rashard Robinson allowed a 73-yard bomb to Florida's Demarcus Robinson late in the fourth quarter. Wide receiver Andre Debose turned a jet sweep into a 35-yard gain in the first quarter. The Tigers were far worse against Mississippi State and Auburn.
Kentucky has at least 10 players who have a rush or a reception for more than 30 yards. Offensive coordinator Neal Brown has a variety of capable playmakers to chose from, so expect to him to mix up his play-calling.
Explosive plays are backbreakers to defenses. Kentucky will need to make them to win its first conference road victory.
Stop the Run
Kentucky's run defense has been hollow against SEC running backs. Florida's Matt Jones and South Carolina's Mike Davis both rushed for season-high totals, combining for 339 yards and four touchdowns.
LSU running back Leonard Fournette rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns against the Gators. Fournette is starting to heat up as the Tigers' No. 1 back, so the Wildcats must try their best to limit his success and make Jennings beat them through the air.
LSU Players to Watch
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Travin Dural
Kentucky's pass defense is fourth in the conference, allowing less than 200 yards per game through the air. But the Wildcats have been fortunate to avoid some of the better passing offenses in the SEC. Florida's Jeff Driskel, who is last in passer rating and yards per attempt in the SEC, picked apart the Wildcats for 295 yards and three touchdowns.
LSU's Anthony Jennings is not an elite passer, but his chemistry with No. 1 receiver Travin Dural is spectacular. Dural has 626 receiving yards and six touchdowns, both of which rank in the top five in the conference.
"Vine of the catch of the year so far by LSU WR Travin Dural: https://t.co/3U96uFbxYJ
— George Quiroz (@GQisreal) October 12, 2014"
Dural will likely draw double coverage throughout the game, as Kentucky will force Jennings to find other receivers. Nevertheless, expect Jennings to target his No. 1 option at least seven times against the Wildcats.
Kwon Alexander
LSU linebacker Kwon Alexander has established himself as LSU's best defensive playmaker. Alexander had a team-leading 10 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss against Florida. He also forced a fumble and an interception, which both led to Tiger scores.
Kemp is a bull at running back, so Alexander needs to be at his best in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Kentucky Players to Watch
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Ryan Timmons
Kentucky receiver Ryan Timmons' 27 receptions and 315 yards lead the team by comfortable margins. Timmons is particularly dangerous on intermediate routes such as slants and screens but also has the speed to get behind safeties.
"Play of the year so far for the #kentuckywildcats towles on a trick play to wide open Ryan Timmons. #bbn 24... https://t.co/bbdHmUMqWz
— Paul Jordan (@PJordan_WBN) October 5, 2014"
Timmons will now face LSU's gifted secondary coming off their best game of the season. He will need help in the form of Demarco Robinson, Javess Blue and Garrett Johnson, all of whom have at least 200 yards receiving.
The Wildcats have the talent to make plays through the air, especially if Kemp has success on the ground.
Josh Forrest
The previously mentioned Dupree and Stamps are talented playmakers, but nobody on Kentucky's defense has been as productive as Josh Forrest.
Forrest is a menace in the run game, leading the team in tackles with 45. He also showed off his coverage skills with an interception return for a touchdown last week against UL-Monroe.
"Pick 6 by Josh Forrest for the #kentuckywildcats #bbn. Cats on top 17-14 https://t.co/o4fIE2a5BL
— Paul Jordan (@PJordan_WBN) October 11, 2014"
Forrest must lead the charge in stopping Fournette and the LSU rushing attack. If he plays poorly, the Tigers will be able to run the football at will.
What They Are Saying
5 of 6Miles said at his weekly press conference that the flow of the game prevented true freshman Brandon Harris from taking the field, per Jacques Doucet of WAFB:
"We wanted to play Brandon Harris. Tight game, opportunity didn't present itself. Played Jennings, was right thing to do. #LSU Les Miles
— Jacques Doucet (@JacquesDoucet) October 13, 2014"
Miles said he could play both against the Wildcats, per Ross Dellenger of The Advocate:
"Miles suggests that #LSU could play both quarterbacks this week. Said the same thing last week. Played one.
— Ross Dellenger (@DellengerAdv) October 13, 2014"
Miles shared his respect for Stoops, per Robert Stewart of Tiger Rag:
"Les on Mark Stoops: "His impact at Kentucky is very significant." Notes that he's competed against Stoops family before (Bob).
— Robert Stewart (@TigerRagRobert) October 13, 2014"
Stoops understands the importance of Towles having a great game under center against LSU, per Jeff Drummond of AllWildcats.com:
"Stoops says Towles will need more than a "game manager" performance this week at LSU. Says his talent needs to show out.
— Jeff Drummond (@JDrumUK) October 13, 2014"
Stoops shared his respect for Miles, per Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal:
"Stoops on Les Miles: "He's fun to watch. Gotta give him credit. The way he wins a lot of close games, he’s obviously doing something right."
— Kyle Tucker (@KyleTucker_CJ) October 13, 2014 "
Prediction
6 of 6Expect LSU's clash against Kentucky on Saturday to resemble 2007's tilt more than 2011's lopsided affair.
Kentucky's resurgence is one of the many unpredictable success stories in the SEC this season. Stoops' turnaround in Lexington has been nothing short of remarkable, especially since he is in the infancy of bringing in his own recruits. A win against Miles in Baton Rouge would skyrocket his name amongst the conference's best coaches.
Stoops should feel confident in his running game with Kemp and backup Braylon Heard. LSU's below-average run defense showed some improvement against Florida, but it dodged a bullet when Gators running back Matt Jones was forced to limited snaps due to injury. Kentucky loves to run the Wildcat with Kemp, so expect to see some of it against the Tigers.
"touchdown #kentuckywildcats Jojo kemp scores from the Wildcat. 14-7 South Carolina #bbn https://t.co/cq95MJFbaV
— Paul Jordan (@PJordan_WBN) October 5, 2014"
Towles has thrown for at least 200 yards in every conference game he has played. But Towles and Kentucky's receiving corps sit in the middle of the pack in the SEC at best. If the Tigers secondary feels they are amongst the country's elite, they should have no problem stopping the Wildcats with the racuous crowd at their advantage.
Special teams always plays a factor in close games. LSU's punt defense was poor against Florida and kicker Colby Delahoussaye missed an extra point. Delahoussaye did however nail a 50-yard field goal to win it and is perfect on 5-of-5 on field goals this season. Kentucky kicker Austin MacGinnis is a mediocre 10-of-15 but is 2-of-3 on kicks of 50 yards or more.
Fournette and the LSU offensive line played their best game against Kentucky. Left tackle La'el Collins showed why he will be an early round pick last week against the Gators.
"LSU's La'el Collins blows Jon Bullard 5 yards off LOS at point of attack on 20-yard Leonard Fournette run https://t.co/AkmCxUwRlr
— Thomas Goldkamp (@Goldkamp247) October 13, 2014"
Collins and right tackle Jerald Hawkins will be asked to block defensive ends Dupree and Jason Hatcher, which is far from an easy task. If they can win that battle, expect Fournette to crack 100 yards for the third time in four games.
The difference in this game will be LSU's receivers. Dural is better than any pass-catcher the Wildcats have faced. They allowed Florida's Demarcus Robinson to catch 15 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns in their only road game. If they double Dural, that should open up freshmen Malachi Dupre and Trey Quinn, both of whom Miles called out in his weekly presser, per Stewart.
Miles wins his first SEC home game, but it will be close.
Score: LSU 27 - Kentucky 21
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
