San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Keys for Each Team to Win Game 2
Game 2 of the National League Championship Series has suddenly turned into a must-win for the St. Louis Cardinals after Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants shut out the redbirds, 3-0, in Game 1.
The media will remind the Cards—as they have reminded the Orioles after they lost the first two games at home—that no team has ever won a best-of-seven LCS after losing the first two games at home.
What will be the keys for the Cardinals to win Game 2 and avoid the O’s fate? On the other hand, what could key a Giants win and send them back to San Francisco in the driver’s seat?
Key No. 1 for the Giants: Can Jake Peavy Stay Hot?
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Jake Peavy has arguably been the best trade-deadline acquisition for any team this year. While his 2014 outings with the Red Sox saw him post an unimpressive 4.72 ERA, the Giants did not shy away when trading for him.
The veteran Peavy rewarded San Francisco’s faith by posting a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts. He also set the tone in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers by shutting out Los Angeles through 5.2 innings. The Giants bullpen held the lead and gave Peavy his first career postseason win in six tries.
While he did not face the Cardinals during the regular season, he last faced them in Game 3 of the 2013 World Series while he was with the Red Sox. He only gave up two runs but lasted just four innings.
Peavy continuing his second-half hot streak on the mound will be a key to the Giants coming out on top in Game 2.
Key No. 2 for the Giants: Keep Lancing Lynn
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As a team, the Giants have hit .317/.394/.476 in the regular season against the Cardinals' Game 2 starter, Lance Lynn. This success includes .300-or-higher averages from Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval, with Buster Posey and Brandon Belt scorching Lynn for .400-or-better averages.
It’s no surprise that Lynn does not have a win against the Giants in his career—an 0-4 personal record and a 1-4 team record between the regular season and the postseason.
A clear key to the Giants coming out on top in Game 2 will be for their offense to continue their dominance of the St. Louis starter.
Key No. 3 for the Giants: Better Hitting with RISP
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For how easily and confidently the Giants seemed to dispatch the Washington Nationals in the NLDS, they did a terrible job of hitting with runners on base.
The Giants hit .222 as a team in four games against the Nationals, but they only hit .125 (5-for-40) with runners in scoring position.
In Game 1 of the NLCS, the Giants were 2-for-11 (.182) with runners in scoring position.
While they have been doing enough with runners on base to win ballgames, they’ve also left a ton of potential runs on the basepaths. The good news is that what hitting they have done with runners in scoring position has been enough, but those stranded runners could eventually catch up with them.
More hits with runners on base could be a key to the Giants thriving in Game 2.
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Key No. 1 for the Cardinals: Can Lance Lynn Solve San Fran?
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Dating back to July 4, Lance Lynn has not given up more than three runs in 17 straight starts, including his Game 2 NLDS start against the Dodgers. He has registered a quality start—pitching at least six innings while giving up three runs or fewer—in 16 of those 17 starts, and he missed going quality in all 17 by one-third of an inning.
While his mound opponent, Jake Peavy, posted a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts after arriving in San Francisco at the trade deadline, Lynn’s last 16 regular-season starts saw him post a 2.11 ERA. Both pitchers have been among the most reliable in the second half of the season, and both pitched great in their 2014 postseason debut.
Lynn will need to perform better than he did when these two teams met in the 2012 NLCS. In that series, he made two starts, with the Cardinals winning one and losing one. However, he couldn’t get the final out in the fourth inning in either of his starts, giving way to the bullpen after surrendering four runs in each game.
That pattern repeated itself in his only start against the Giants this year, as Lynn could not escape a fourth-inning jam. In fact, in three career starts, Lynn has never beaten San Francisco. For all the quality starts he threw this year, he has never had a quality start against the Giants.
Possibly the biggest key for the Cardinals in Game 2 is for Lance Lynn to turn around his fortune.
Key No. 2 for the Cardinals: Make Sunday a Holliday
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While Monday may be a holiday for some, the Cardinals need a Holliday on Sunday. When examining the Cardinals lineup versus Jake Peavy, Matt Holliday is the lone batter who has had success against him.
In 40 at-bats, Holliday is hitting .300/.475/.400 against Peavy, with one home run that came back in 2006.
Jhonny Peralta has hit a home run against Peavy, but no other Cardinals hitter has had any significant success against the Giants pitcher.
However, just about every member of the Cardinals starting lineup has faced Peavy, and on a big stage: last year’s World Series.
That limited familiarity will help the Cardinals lineup somewhat, but as the guy who has faced Peavy the most and had success, it will be key for Holliday to lead the way.
Key No. 3 for the Cardinals: Gotta Win at Home
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The Cardinals need only look at the ALCS, where the Royals have so far taken the first two games from the Orioles in Baltimore, to know that they don’t want to be in that same scenario heading to San Francisco.
If they can’t take care of business in Game 2, then they’ll face almost two days of every baseball talking head telling them that no team has ever won a best-of-seven LCS after losing the first two games at home.
However stacked against them the deck may be in Game 2, the Cardinals batters must find a way to score some runs off a tough customer in Jake Peavy, and Lance Lynn needs to come up big and finally solve his Giant problem.
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