College Football Playoff Rankings: Biggest Takeaways from Week 7
Is Alabama's dynasty over? Despite the protestations to the contrary by one of Paul Finebaum's irate callers, the proof is becoming irrefutable.
The Crimson Tide had to resort to a blocked PAT just to escape Fayetteville, Arkansas, by the hair on their chinny chin chins. Granted, Arkansas is vastly improved and deserves better than its 0-3 SEC record, but Alabama's play showed all the signs of a fading power ready to cede its perch.
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And the usurpers are ready. There are only four unbeaten teams left in the power-five conferences after Saturday, and two of them reside in the state of Mississippi. If the talk of the Egg Bowl being more important than the Iron Bowl sounded like a gag last week, no one is laughing at that line now.
We're but two weeks away from the selection committee's inaugural rankings. While the committee members have a truckload of statistics and data available to them, these trends should be pretty unmistakable:
| ACC | Florida State |
| Big 12 | Baylor |
| SEC | Ole Miss, Mississippi State |
| Independent | Notre Dame |
| Conference USA* | Marshall |
Teams That Moved Up
State of Mississippi
This isn't just a cute little story about the Magnolia State anymore. Mississippi will have the second- and third-ranked teams in the polls come Sunday, behind defending champion Florida State. In fact, both Ole Miss and Mississippi State boast a better resume than the 'Noles.
Both teams have proven that they're not just cute, feel-good stories, suffering no letdown this week after big victories in Week 6. The Egg Bowl is indeed shaping up to be what will decide the SEC West.
Baylor
The Bears overcame a 21-point deficit with less than 12 minutes to play to stun TCU in a battle of unbeatens. With it, the persistent questions about Baylor's less-than-stellar nonconference schedule will start to recede.
As the only undefeated team in the Big 12, Baylor is now in a prime position to claim a spot in the playoff field. The Bears might not always win pretty with a very shaky defense, but they're never out of any game with their firepower.
Notre Dame
The Irish certainly didn't score any style points in a harder-than-expected win over mediocre North Carolina, but they continue to benefit from the fact that other power conference teams are knocking each other off.
Even a loss at Florida State next week might not eliminate Notre Dame from the playoff field. With a schedule getting considerably softer after Tallahassee, the Irish should be pretty close to a lock for at least a spot in one of the New Year's Six bowls.
Oregon
The Ducks righted their ship with a resounding win over UCLA, a game that wasn't as close as the final score of 42-30 indicated. They're still in control of the Pac-12 North race, with a showdown against Stanford to come Nov. 1.
With all the SEC West teams starting to inflict losses on each other, Oregon still has a shot to play its way back into the playoff. It should also keep sending reminders that it's defeated Michigan State, which inexplicably is still ranked several spots ahead in both polls.
Teams That Moved Down
State of Alabama
First, Auburn was resoundingly beaten by Mississippi State. Then, Alabama struggled to shake off Arkansas. The SEC West's center of gravity has shifted across the borders to the state of Mississippi, which is now 2-0 against its divisional foes from Alabama.
The Tigers' chances of repeating as the SEC champ just became that much more daunting, as their schedule does not let up going forward. Alabama does get a bit more of a break with the schedule, but it hasn't faced Mississippi State yet, never mind the Iron Bowl.
TCU
It was all right there for the taking, but the Horned Frogs simply blew it. TCU was about 10 minutes away from a huge win in Waco, Texas, and firm control of the Big 12 race, having already defeated Oklahoma last week.
But after Baylor blitzed them 24-0 to finish the game, the Frogs probably are out of the playoff race. The dwindling number of contenders from the Big 12 might help the Pac-12 and the Big Ten if no one emerges as a clear conference champion.
UCLA
The Bruins began their meltdown last week when they missed a pair of field goals at the end of an upset loss to Utah. It culminated Saturday when their coaches went nuclear at each other on the sideline.
UCLA ranked in the Top 10 to open the season and was a chic pick to crash the playoff field. Halfway into the season, the Bruins have proved that they're not ready for prime time.
BYU
The Cougars' flickering hopes of landing in a New Year's Six bowl were officially extinguished after Thursday's loss to Central Florida in overtime. For the purposes of being relevant in the new college football landscape, BYU might have to rethink whether its path of independence is really working out—even though, money-wise, it's still a winner.
Group-of-Five Team in the Best Position
East Carolina
The Pirates just continue to grind out victories, this time a 28-17 win at South Florida to keep them in pole position for the Group-of-Five bowl bid. The ranks of their competition actually thinned out a bit as fellow American Athletic member Memphis lost to drop out of contention.
If East Carolina should falter, Marshall—the only unbeaten team in the Group-of-Five conferences—will be in the mix along with the Mountain West winner, with Colorado State currently leading the pack.
Projected Conference Championship Matchups
ACC: Florida State vs. Duke
Big Ten: Michigan State vs. Minnesota
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Arizona
SEC: Mississippi State vs. Georgia
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