What to Expect from Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers Offense in Week 6

When the San Francisco 49ers take on the St. Louis Rams on Monday night, they’ll be best served with a healthy dose of Frank Gore.

Honestly, with the Rams being the worst team the 49ers have played so far according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, both overall and on defense, the 49ers could have success in a number of different areas.  They even have the Rams ranked second-to-last in terms of pass defense, so you’d think attacking them through the air would be the preferable strategy, right?

Well, not so fast.  Breaking it down by receiver, the Rams have been worst against tight ends and second receivers.  That could bode well for Anquan Boldin, who should get very solid matchups against rookie cornerbacks E.J. Gaines and Lamarcus Joyner, but the 49ers might not be able to capitalize on the weakness against tight ends.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Vernon Davis was inactive against the Chiefs last week with a back injury, and while he returned to practice Thursday according to the Sacramento Bee, his status for Monday night is still questionable.  Even if he does play, he’s not likely to be at 100 percent yet, so counting on him to have a huge night might be putting too much pressure on him.

So we go back to the run game.  That’s been the 49ers' bread and butter the past few seasons, and it’s no coincidence that their victories in the past two weeks correlate with their best two days on the ground.  It’s not just a factor of running with the lead, either—the 49ers actually attempted more passes last week than runs.  It’s the success of the ground game, however, that opens up passing lanes.  When the 49ers get Frank Gore and company going, the entire offense runs much more smoothly.

The Rams have allowed 120 or more rushing yards in each game they’ve played this season.  Cordarrelle Patterson, Bobby Rainey and DeMarco Murray all rushed for at least 100 yards against them, and LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles and Adrian Peterson all had very solid days as well.  They’re allowing 4.9 yards per carry, fifth-worst in the NFL.

So, what’s the best way to use Gore and company to attack the Rams defense?  Let’s look at their rushing splits, as charted by Pro Football Focus (subscription required):

Direction	Att	Yds	Avg
Left End	11	73	6.64
Left Tackle	7	34	4.86
Left Guard	24	96	4.00
Middle Left	11	32	2.91
Middle Right	15	57	3.80
Right Guard	14	108	7.71
Right Tackle	11	15	1.36
Right End	20	172	8.60

Before you get too excited about those right-end splits, they’re heavily weighed down by one very long run by Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 1.  While it’s tempting to imagine a Bruce Ellington jet sweep gaining a ton of yards, the 49ers simply haven’t shown a lot of that sort of design in their game plans so far.

Bouncing the ball to the outside does, however, seem like a solid option, as does attacking the right side of the Rams defense in general.  The latter matches well with the 49ers’ style, as it means Joe Staley and Mike Iupati would be leading the charge.  Staley’s consistently been great at the point of attack, and Iupati’s been much better the past two games, as he’s recovered from the broken fibula suffered in last year’s NFC Championship Game.

That puts them in a position to match their running strengths against St. Louis’ running deficiencies. 

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Pro Football Focus grades the left side of the 49ers' offensive line as being positive in the run game—that's Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Daniel Kilgore, with a combined run-block grade of plus-21.3 so far this season.  Conversely, St. Louis' right end (Robert Quinn) and weak-side and middle linebackers (Alec Ogletree and James Laurinaitis) have a combined grade of minus-15.8.

It should be a flashing red beacon blaring out “run to the left and challenge the weak part of St. Louis’ defense."

Quinn and Ogletree, notably, were better against the run last year, but they haven’t proven it this season.  Until they do, the 49ers should try to run it down their throats.

It’s a strategy that worked for the 49ers in their first matchup last season, in St. Louis. They ran for over 200 yards that game, with Staley, Iupati and Bruce Miller leading the charge down the left side.  They were able to get to Quinn and Laurinaitis again and again, on plays like this 27-yard run.

That opens up the play-action passing game, and if the Rams have to put extra men in the box to try to stop Gore and Carlos Hyde, Kaepernick should be able to pick them apart through the air.  It slows down a pass rush that has already only gotten one sack so far this season, meaning Kaepernick should have plenty of time to find his open receiver and hit them for decent chunks of yardage.

Jeff Fisher, coach of the Rams, knows this, and he addressed it in his pregame conference call:

"

The run game, and the play action game. A few weeks ago, when there was a lot of no-back passing, it was effective for them against Arizona. But the run game, the play action game, it keeps you ahead of the sticks. It keeps your third downs manageable in that 2 to 6 range, and Kap's so good at it. He's going to convert those and keep the offense off the field…

[Gore’s] an outstanding runner. There's not been any drop off. He started this year like he finished last year. He's the same runner, works very well without the ball. Really good in protection. He's kind of the nerve center of that offense. It revolves around him. He's an unselfish  player, hard to defend.”

"

Fisher’s dead on the money—Gore’s the nerve center of the 49ers attack.  When the rushing game ticks, everything else gets so much easier for Kaepernick and the passing game.  It allows the 49ers to control the time of possession, keeping their defense fresh.

If the 49ers are going to win on Monday, and I believe they will, it all begins with Frank Gore.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.