San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders: Breaking Down San Diego's Game Plan
The San Diego Chargers (4-1) battle the Oakland Raiders (0-4) Sunday in the team's first divisional matchup of 2014, and the best way for San Diego to start strong in the AFC West is to use running back Branden Oliver's fresh legs and throw out five-plus rushers at rookie quarterback Derek Carr.
The Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak into Oakland Coliseum, with quarterback Philip Rivers playing at a level worthy of MVP consideration.
The Raiders are at the opposite end of the NFL positivity scale, having fired head coach Dennis Allen last week and sporting a threadbare depth chart that leaves much to be desired.
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Oakland’s chances to win aren't great, but it has pulled off this type of upset before—San Diego faced a similarly hopeless Oakland team in Week 5 of last season and lost 27-17. If the 2014 Chargers want to flip this script and continue their success, the offense and defense should follow their respective keys to the game explained in this article.
Let's begin with the offense and its usage of Oliver, one of the NFL's most pleasant surprises this season.
Offensive key to the game: Explore the talents of Branden Oliver
Tuesday's signing of free agent Ronnie Brown, as reported by NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal, shows just how rail thin the Chargers' depth at running back is—Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown, a supposed three-headed monster heading into 2014, are all injured. For a team that struggled running the ball early on, this could be a recipe for disaster.
Fortunately for San Diego, undrafted rookie Branden Oliver is shining a light on a previously bleak situation.
Oliver ran for 114 yards on 6.0 yards per carry versus the New York Jets Sunday, with 68 yards receiving and two touchdowns to boot. New York isn't an easy team to run on, but he made it happen with an impressive combination of quickness, power and instincts. Let’s break down his most impressive play from Week 5.
The Chargers need to use Oliver frequently Sunday. He provides some much-needed fresh legs on an offense with an injury rate as high as Rivers' completion percentage. And the more reps the team gives Oliver now, the more prepared he will be deeper into the season when the schedule gets tougher. Someone has to give this running game life.
Rivers should feast on a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA, so the running game understandably won't be the team’s primary focus at Oakland. Still, the team needs to figure out if the Jets game wasn't a fluke and if Oliver has legitimate potential as a starter while Mathews is out.
Expect Oliver to play the Mathews role, the Woodhead role and the Brown role Sunday—Shaun Draughn and Ronnie Brown are his backups.
Defensive key to the game: Comfortably blitz Oakland's quarterback
“Oakland's quarterback” doesn't have a name because it's not confirmed who will start at signal-caller for the Raiders Sunday. Chances are it will be first-year passer Derek Carr, who has been able to practice after an injury in Week 4.
Although Carr isn't as easy to pick on as Matt Schaub and Matt McGloin are, he is still a first-year quarterback with exploitable tendencies. His interception against the Houston Texans is a particularly egregious example.
Five-man rushes like this tend to frazzle Carr. As ESPN.com's Bill Williamson pointed out, in Weeks 1-3, Carr completed 71 percent of his passes when facing a four-man rush but completed just 48.7 percent of his passes when facing more than four rushers, per ESPN Stats & Information.
Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano should feel free to blitz Carr frequently, as the reward outweighs the risk. In fact, the risk is minimal—San Diego’s secondary has been playing at a high level all season, while Oakland's non-James Jones receivers are struggling to gain separation.
The Raiders' solid offensive line may be able to pick up some of these blitzes, but not enough for the skill-position players to take advantage. The San Diego defense should continue to sport impressive numbers after Sunday.
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