Patriots vs. Bills: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

The NFL is often ripe for overreaction because of its small sample size, but it is hard to remember a team that has experienced a similarly wild two-week swing to what the New England Patriots have just undergone.  Following a foundation-shaking loss that brought out the apocalyptic proclamations, Tom Brady and the Pats turned in their best and most passionate 60-minute effort in recent memory, restoring order to Foxborough.

Of course, the true 2014 Patriots lie somewhere in between the past two games.  While New England is unlikely to collapse in such spectacular fashion again, it is also safe to assert that the team is unlikely to sustain such a viscerally emotional performance again this season.  Now the work begins in identifying which rendition is more sustainable.

In fairness, it would be folly to suggest that the Week 5 win was simply emotion-fueled, as the Patriots made significant tangible changes that provided auspicious takeaways apart from the final score.  From the offensive line's sudden stability to the emergence of two-tight end and two-back power sets, New England has at least established a foundation to build its identity around.

Now that the Pats are standing on solid ground once again, the mainstream analysis should be more measured than last week's frenzied panic.  In trying to diagnose what we should expect from this highly variable bunch moving forward, these national perspectives provide the most insight into the current state of the Patriots.

Tim Hasselbeck: Lack of WR Talent Long-Term Problem

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New England has possessed one of the league's most limited passing games over the past two seasons due to a combination of injuries and personnel losses.  However, Week 5's prolific two-tight end attack evoked a throwback to the halcyon 2010-12 period, in which the Patriots' 12 personnel packages defined offensive innovation in the NFL.

Despite Tim Wright's emergence, however, ESPN's Tim Hasselbeck (per WEEI's Andrew Battifarano) still sees New England's receiving corps as an issue, in part because of its inability to control the real estate outside the numbers:

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I do think it’s a problem long term. Nothing’s been solved in terms of somebody really dominating outside the numbers. I think [Brandon] LaFell’s role is kind of what it is for the team right now. And I don’t know how much bigger it can truly get...that doesn’t solve the fact that you don’t have somebody that can really, really dominate outside. And you don’t even necessarily have to be totally dominant, but you just have to have the ability to win out there.

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This is nothing new for the Patriots; even during the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez era, the offense relied more upon exploiting one-on-ones with their superior athletes rather than manufacturing passing production through creative scheming.  That's not a bad thing, for the most innovative offenses often win through simplistic schemes that are merely modified to exploit defensive tendencies (think Chip Kelly's use of spacing or Gus Malzahn's amorphous option attack).

Thus, while it might be premature to anoint Wright an offensive centerpiece, integrating a second tight end into the game plan represents an easier path to goosing the passing game.  The Patriots have likely hit their ceilings with traditional split ends like Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson.  Rather than succumbing to the Peter Principle and force-feeding the perimeter, the Patriots have wisely redirected their offensive identity.

Coley Harvey: Pats Ground Game Misleading

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On six crucial plays Sunday, Patriots averaged 18.7 yards per carry. On the other 40, they averaged 2.7 yards. #Bengals

— Coley Harvey (@ColeyHarvey) October 7, 2014"

After a frustrating lack of commitment to the ground game, New England's emphasis on power personnel last week was refreshing.  The Patriots easily eclipsed their previous high watermarks, posting 220 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry.

However, as Cincinnati's excellent beat reporter Harvey points out, those numbers were partially inflated by six long runs of 43, 19, 15, 14, 11 and 10 yards.  Harvey's tweet includes two quarterback sneaks and three quarterback kneeldowns, but even removing all seven quarterback runs, the Pats averaged just 3.0 yards per carry on 33 other touts.

Harvey's analysis is not without merit, as the Pats accrued just 3.47 expected points on the ground, based on Pro-Football-Reference's expected points model.  Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded out New England's run blocking at plus-1.6 overall, with the likes of Sebastian Vollmer and Michael Hoomanawanui bringing down the final total.

But even if the Patriots are not the same mauling line they have been in the past, it remains impressive that they opened up enough space for six double-digit-yard runs.  According to PFF, the Patriots had compiled just seven runs of 10 or more yards over the first four games combined.

As we will touch on later, the Buffalo Bills present a much tougher test for the line this week, so we should have a better indication of how sustainable this run blocking was.  Nonetheless, despite a few typical lapses, Week 5 was the first instance in which Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen consistently had enough daylight to inflict meaningful damage, a testament to the line's improvement.

Andrew Healy: Wright's Breakthrough Key

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As alluded to earlier, Tim Wright's ascension was the most tangible difference in catalyzing the Patriots' best offensive performance of the season.  Football Outsiders' Andrew Healy suggests that while Wright is not the same player as the previous New England tight end who wore No. 81, he creates the same type of catch-22 for opposing defenses:

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With his number and his position, the comparisons of Wright to Aaron Hernandez are inevitable. But Wright is likely to play a somewhat different role. Three inches taller and 25 pounds lighter, he probably won't be lining up at running back. With his bigger catch radius, though, Wright may offer even more potential as a seam-stretcher. The throws don't need to be as open as they were on Sunday for Brady to hit a target like Wright. And with those seams suitably stretched, the Patriots may find breathing room for the short passes that have put them at the top of offensive DVOA for a decade.

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One game is obviously far too narrow a sample size from which to draw any meaningful conclusions.  Nonetheless, it's worth noting that of all tight ends with at least three targets, Wright had by far the highest yards per route run at 6.54.  For reference, among 34 qualified tight ends, Travis Kelce leads the league at 3.01 yards per route run.

Wright is unlikely to post such consistently monstrous performances, but this is not necessarily new territory for him.  As an undrafted rookie, Wright ranked 18th in the aforementioned per-route efficiency metric, ahead of more heralded tight ends like Jordan Cameron, Martellus Bennett and Tony Gonzalez. 

The Patriots are again forcing teams to make a choice between countering Gronkowski and Wright with base personnel or sub-package personnel.  Either choice is wrong, as both personnel packages will create significant one-on-one advantages for New England.  As bad as the Logan Mankins trade looked over the first month, Wright has a chance to turn that trade into a significant win for the Pats if he revives what was once the league's most dangerous offensive package.

Gregg Rosenthal: Tougher Test for O-Line Awaits

USA TODAY Sports

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Tough test for Patriots’ o-line improvement. Buffalo’s D-Line is playing better than any group in league.

— gregg rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) October 7, 2014"

The Patriots' Week 6 opponent, AFC East rival Buffalo, is the rare team that can remain a viable playoff contender despite turmoil at quarterback.  Kyle Orton may or may not stabilize the Bills' passing game for the long term, but regardless, Buffalo will remain competitive every week because of its unparalleled ability to control the trenches on defense.

Buffalo possesses one of the most powerful front sevens in the league, complete with heavy-hitting run-stuffers like Brandon Spikes and Marcell Dareus, terrific edge-rushers in Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes and well-rounded three-down players like Kyle Williams and Preston Brown.  Kyle Williams is PFF's third-highest-graded DT this season, and after missing last week's game with a knee injury, it appears he may return after participating in practice on Wednesday.

The Patriots' new offensive line is lighter and more agile, which alleviated issues in zone- and down-blocking last week.  But it is not difficult to imagine the likes of Dareus and Spikes plowing through undersized interior linemen Ryan Wendell and Dan Connolly, as Buffalo figures to hold a significant advantage in controlling the interior A- and B-gaps. 

The Pats can game-plan around this to some degree—do not expect too many dive or inside zones, for instance—but they also cannot totally shield themselves from their own offensive line, as they did over the first four weeks.  Although the line will likely take a step back simply due to better competition, the Patriots will never receive an accurate barometer of the unit if they do not place some degree of faith in their personnel.

Bill Barnwell: Pats Tied to Brady Through 2017

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Grantland's Bill Barnwell pens an insightful Monday morning column that is a must-read for any NFL fan.  In analyzing the hullabaloo surrounding Brady's future with the Patriots, Barnwell opines that salary-cap economics, more than any off-field discontent, would likely force the Pats to keep Brady through the end of his contract in 2017.  However, he does reveal one avenue for the Pats to get out from under a three-season commitment to Brady:

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Or there’s one other thing they could do. If the Patriots think Brady’s not in their future and that he won’t retire, they could — and I would never even mention this if New England wasn’t Belichick’s team — trade him before the October 28 trade deadline. It’s the only chance the Patriots will have until 2017 to deal Brady and get serious assets back in return without eating an enormous, franchise-altering cap penalty.

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Trading Brady would immediately become one of the most earth-shattering transactions in league history, but it is extraordinarily unlikely that the Patriots will wave the white flag just three weeks from now.  But assuming Brady does not retire before the end of his deal, the Patriots will be on the hook for prohibitive amounts of dead money if they trade or release him.

Brady's three-year, $27 million extension that he signed in Feb. 2013 kicks in after Week 17, and while it is a salary cap-friendly deal so long as Brady is on the roster, the fully guaranteed base salaries essentially make it impossible for the Patriots to release him.  Brady received plenty of praise for his ostensible sacrifice, but in reality, the Pats were the ones sacrificing the ability to readily move on once the extension kicked in.

And that should not become a problem, despite Chris Mortensen's report of Brady's discontent with the organization.  One can debate whether or not the Patriots are doing enough to support their aging quarterback, but at least for the next three seasons, the status quo will rule at the position.

*Unless otherwise noted, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).