Is It Panic Time for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2014 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup?

It's shaping up to be a really big week for Dale Earnhardt Jr.

He's already begun celebrating his 40th birthday, even though the big day isn't actually until this Friday.

And there is this 2014 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup deal too, with arguably one of the biggest races of Earnhardt's career on tap for this Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

To say it's panic time for Earnhardt and his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports team might be an understatement or an overstatement, depending on who's doing the talking. But this much is certain: Earnhardt's special 2014 season—and it has been special, beginning with his season-opening win in the Daytona 500—is in very real jeopardy of being tarnished by an early exit from the Chase.

Under the new Chase elimination format, Earnhardt is in serious trouble after blowing a right-front tire while leading last week's race at Kansas Speedway. It left him with a 39th-place finish—worse than all the other Chasers except for defending Cup champion Jimmie Johnson, who also happens to be one of Earnhardt's teammates at Hendrick Motorsports.

It was the first in a series of three races in the Contender Round, with four drivers eliminated from the original field of 16 following the three-race Challenger Round and four more set to go when this round is completed following races at Charlotte and Talladega.

So with only two races left to make up the difference—and one being at the unpredictable 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway—Earnhardt sits 42 points behind leader Joey Logano in the Contender Round standings and, more importantly, 25 points out of the eighth spot that represents the cutoff point to advance to the next round.

Oh, like the other 11 drivers chasing Logano, Earnhardt could lock himself into the Eliminator 8 Round with a victory in one of the next two races. But he's never won a points race in 29 career starts at Charlotte, and the last of his five victories at Talladega came a decade ago in 2004.

Then again, Earnhardt had never won at Pocono prior to this year, either. And he went on to sweep both races there, giving him three victories for the season—the most he's had in a season since he racked up a career-high six in 2004 while still driving for Dale Earnhardt Inc.

Earnhardt tried to be upbeat after the Kansas debacle, focusing on the fact that at least he had a fast car and telling reporters, via FoxSports.com, "We hadn't been running very good the last several weeks and we came in here with a great attitude and a great, fast car. This is the car we won Pocono with both times. It's a good car. Hopefully we didn't hurt it too bad."

Then he added: "We'll just go to the next (race). This is going to hurt us in the points, obviously. (But) we've got a lot of racing left, a lot of races to win, and we're running good."

You've got to hand it to him. It doesn't sound like he's panicking, even though, in reality, there isn't a lot of racing left or a lot of races that really matter this season left to win, if he doesn't advance to the next Chase round.

And then Earnhardt went out and apparently had a real good time at a surprise birthday party thrown for him by girlfriend Amy Reimann, as Dale Jr. noted on his Twitter account:

Celebrating your 40th in style is important. But if Earnhardt wants to close out this season, his last with current crew chief Steve Letarte, he will need to really bring it this weekend at Charlotte. No driver relishes the thought of going to Talladega needing to win to advance to the next round of the Chase, as it's just too unpredictable.

The fact is, this might be Earnhardt's last and best chance at a title. With Letarte moving on to the NBC broadcast booth next season, Earnhardt will have to begin adjusting to a new crew chief in Greg Ives. And while Ives no doubt is talented, these things frequently take time.

And once you're past 40 in racing, time isn't often on your side.

Seven drivers in the 65-year history of NASCAR have won titles in the equivalent of what is now the Cup Series after turning 40—the first being Lee Petty in 1954 and the last being Tony Stewart in 2011. So it can be done.

But given the competition he's up against these days in his own Hendrick Motorsports race shop, and given all the other circumstances, this very well may be Earnhardt's last best shot at winning a title, giving rise to a reach for the panic button by Junior Nation, if not necessarily by the driver himself.

Unless otherwise noted, all information was obtained firsthand.

Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer and editor for FOXSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.