Predicting the Next Wave of Young NBA Talent to Get Contract Extensions
Kyrie Irving got his max money from the Cleveland Cavaliers before LeBron James made them title contenders again. The Morris twins re-upped with the Phoenix Suns for a combined $52 million. Kenneth Faried should soon be the proud owner of a set-up-for-life extension, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
These four don't figure to be the only ones to get deals done between now and the Halloween deadline for rookie-scale extensions. The combination of a skyrocketing salary cap, due to the NBA's new national TV deal, and the added costs and risks of restricted free agency (see: Gordon Hayward, Eric Bledsoe, Greg Monroe) may well drive teams to lock in their young players over the long haul in greater numbers.
And, well, there are still a number of notable names out there who have reason to dream of dollar signs and zeroes until the end of the month.
But which of those players who are eligible for rookie-scale extensions—mostly members of the NBA draft's 2011 class—will be joyously re-enacting that most famous of exchanges between Rod Tidwell and Jerry Maguire at month's end? And which ones will be wondering why their respective squads didn't show them the money?
Ricky Rubio
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Ricky Rubio was drafted in 2009 but didn't arrive stateside until 2011. Hence, his representatives are now hard at work hammering out a deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Apparently, there's still plenty of work to be done therein. According to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney, the T-Wolves have thus far topped out at four years and $48 million for Rubio, though the Spaniard is pushing for a five-year pact, preferably one with max money attached.
Minny would rather not tack on that extra year, in part because the team can only have one half-decade extension on its books at any given time and would prefer to save that reward for incoming rookie Andrew Wiggins.
Sound familiar? Three years ago, David Kahn, Flip Saunders' predecessor as the T-Wolves' general manager, chose not to max out Kevin Love, with an eye toward saving that slot for Rubio. Instead, the two sides settled on a four-year pact with an opt-out after Year 3.
Given the sordid nature of the T-Wolves' recent history, it's tough to imagine Saunders not coming to terms with Rubio's agent, Dan Fegan, before the end of the month.
Prediction: four years, $58 million
Patrick Beverley
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Tricky Ricky isn't the only 2009 draftee who's due for a raise. Patrick Beverley spent some time overseas after his name was called by then-deputy commissioner Adam Silver more than five years ago.
After stints in Ukraine, Greece, Russia and the D-League, Beverley has established himself as a fixture—and a pesky one at that—at point guard for the Houston Rockets. The Chicago native started 55 games next to James Harden last season and wound up on the NBA's All-Defensive second team for his efforts.
And yet, there's been no indication to this point that the Houston Rockets are so much as entertaining Beverley's representatives for extension talks.
Not that the Rockets are in any way wrong to avoid such discussions. As great as Beverley may be on the defensive end, he's not exactly a dynamic offensive force, with a three-point shot (36.1 percent in 2014-15) that checks in just below-league average.
More importantly, Beverley has yet to show that he can handle an 82-game schedule. He only played the second half of the 2012-13 season in Houston, after leaving Spartak St. Petersburg and getting himself up to speed in the D-League, and missed 26 games on account of a knee injury last season.
As for the Rockets, general manager Daryl Morey may not be keen to splurge on Beverley's services, not when his team is already set to surpass the current salary cap and the market will soon be flooded with more-than-passable replacements.
Prediction: no extension
Brandon Knight
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Among those point guards who could be competing for cap space with Beverley among next summer's restricted free agents: Brandon Knight.
Like Beverley in Houston, Knight may well find himself spending more time off the ball with the Milwaukee Bucks now that sophomore-to-be Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to take over some of the team's point guard duties.
Knight, though, insists that he's not a 2-guard. "It's my best position," he told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Charles F. Gardner of his preference to run point. "Point guards have to be able to beat their guy, get in the paint and make the right decision. I can get in the paint at any time."
That may be true; Knight's 6.9 drives per game put him among the 30 most frequent penetrators in the league last season, per NBA.com. But, as Grantland's Zach Lowe points out, whether Knight attacks effectively is another story:
"He has a better change-of-pace game, a usable floater, and more passes in his quiver than the players he shares the backcourt with. But like Burks, he often drives with a score-first approach that short-circuits possessions before the Bucks can squeeze out the juicy stuff.
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It would behoove the Bucks, then, to see if Knight has improved as a passer—not to mention how he meshes with Antetokounmpo and a fit contingent of Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and O.J. Mayo—before they stuff his bank account silly.
On the other hand, general manager John Hammond is already talking with Arn Tellem, Knight's agent. And guys who average 18 points and five assists per game before the age of 23, as Knight nearly did last season, are valuable assets in this league.
Prediction: four years, $40 million
Kemba Walker
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As long as we're on the topic of scoring point guards drafted in 2011, we'd be remiss if we didn't touch on the curious case of Kemba Walker. According to the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell, Charlotte Hornets general manager Rich Cho has already had "preliminary discussions" with Walker's representatives about a new deal.
Charlotte, though, has been loath to offer rookie-scale extensions over the years. In fact, the franchise has yet to retain a player this way since its birth as the Bobcats in 2004, though the team attempted to strike such an accord with Emeka Okafor in 2007.
Walker wouldn't seem the sort to change the Hornets' way of thinking. The UConn product has failed to crack 40 percent shooting from the field in two of his three seasons as a pro, and while he improved as a passer (and cut down on his turnovers) in 2013-14, he's likely to relinquish some of those on-ball duties to summer signee Lance Stephenson going forward.
Those concerns might not subside anytime soon, since there's only so much Walker can do about his size (6'1", 184 lbs). "Size does matter," Hornets head coach Steve Clifford told Grantland's Zach Lowe, "especially in the playoffs."
This isn't to say that Walker won't field an extension offer of some sort from the Hornets this month. Rather, it's just tough to imagine Charlotte proposing a deal—worth somewhere between, say, $10-14 million per year—that would satisfy Walker's camp, given his limitations and the glut of point guards on the market.
Prediction: no extension
Reggie Jackson
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And last but certainly not least among point guards with realistic extension prospects, there's Reggie Jackson.
The Boston College product has his eyes on filling a more prominent role than ever for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Jackson racked up 36 starts during the regular season as Russell Westbrook's placeholder and picked up four more in the playoffs once Thabo Sefolosha fell clear off the map. Not surprisingly, Jackson doesn't intend to go back to the bench.
"I want to be a starter," Jackson told Basketball Insiders' Susan Bible. "I’ve always wanted to be a starter. I’ve always wanted to be great. All the greats I’ve seen started, so that’s kind of the mold."
The Thunder, for their part, see Jackson as a key member of their team over the long haul. "We don't look at him as anything other than a core member," general manager Sam Presti said at his pre-training camp press conference (via The Oklahoman's Erik Horne). "We want to invest in Reggie. Figuring out how best we do that is my job."
Presti also insisted that Jackson won't be traded before the regular season starts a la James Harden in 2012. Assuming Jackson's representatives and OKC's front office are actually on the same page, look for the high-flying guard to stick with the Thunder for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: four years, $36 million
Alec Burks
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Alec Burks, like Jackson, has thus far spent the vast majority of his NBA career as a reserve. In fact, Burks' 12 starts all came last season in relief of the injured Gordon Hayward, who inked a $63 million deal of his own with the Utah Jazz this summer.
Burks might finally get to start regularly this season now that Richard Jefferson and Marvin Williams are gone, but he may not be long for that role with Dante Exum, the No. 5 pick in the 2014 NBA draft, waiting in the wings. That being said, the Jazz have already discussed an extension with Burks' camp, per The Salt Lake Tribune's Aaron Falk.
That doesn't mean Utah is destined to strike a deal with Burks before Oct. 31. If anything, it may be in the team's best interest to wait and see if the Missouri native is fit for starting duty.
Not surprisingly, Burks is eager for some measure of job security sooner rather than later. "I hope it does," he said during Jazz media day (via The Tribune). "If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. It’s a business. I saw it work out with D-Fav before the season. I saw it work out with Gordon after the season."
Prediction: no extension
Enes Kanter
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Burks' teammate, Enes Kanter, is also the subject of extension talks in Salt Lake City, per Falk. GM Dennis Lindsey, for his part, wants to get deals done for both Burks and Kanter, but he doesn't seem keen to force the issue.
"There are going to be deals that you can get … when there’s common ground," Lindsey told The Tribune. "There are going to be some other situations that are going to dictate you going into the July period and renegotiating. Sometimes the dynamics mean it’s better done early and sometimes it’s better done late."
Those dynamics have certainly shifted with the league's new TV deal, but so too have those on the court for the Jazz. Like Burks, Kanter figures to slide into Utah's starting five under new head coach Quin Snyder.
The idea of regularly pairing Kanter with Derrick Favors makes some sense, though the numbers suggest otherwise. According to NBA.com, the Jazz were patently awful when those two shared the floor last season, scoring just 98.1 points per 100 possessions while allowing 113.4 points on the other end.
That being the case, Utah shouldn't be in any rush to make Kanter a fixture of the franchise's future when he's yet to show that he can work favorably with Favors on the floor.
Prediction: no extension
Jimmy Butler
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Say this much for Jimmy Butler: He knows how to play it cool when it comes to contract talks. "I don't really think about it too much," he said at Chicago Bulls media day (via ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell). "I grew up without money. I think I'll be all right for a couple more days. I just play basketball. That's what I know. And if you play basketball the right way, the contract situation will handle itself."
By all accounts, the Bulls' front office is hard at work trying to hammer out a deal with the Marquette product. CSN Chicago's Mark Schanowski makes the case, though, that team owner Jerry Reinsdorf's penny-pinching could sidetrack negotiations somewhat:
"Team chairman Jerry Reinsdorf has said he’s more than willing to pay the tax for a team that can contend for a championship, but with the deadline looming for the Butler extension, committing those kinds of dollars for a player who shot 40 percent from the field last season, and only 28 percent from 3 point range would certainly qualify as a leap of faith.
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Granted, Schanowski's opinion came down before details of the league's new TV deal were announced. With the cap set to explode in the years to come, a deal just north of the one Taj Gibson signed last summer (four years, $33 million) could be in the cards for Butler, who should thrive in a reduced offensive role next to a healthy Derrick Rose.
Prediction: four years, $40 million
Kawhi Leonard
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It's not a question of if Kawhi Leonard's going to get paid, but rather of when and how much. The San Antonio Spurs have every reason to retain the reigning Finals MVP, given both his remarkable development and the aging of the team's current core.
Sooner or later (but probably sooner), Leonard will be San Antonio's best and most important player. He'll get paid accordingly, and thanks to the rising cap, he may not have to sacrifice his own windfall for the good of the team like his predecessors all did in their time.
Prediction: five years, $80 million
Klay Thompson
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While we're on the topic of inevitabilities, Klay Thompson shouldn't have to wait long before he can finally slough off the rest of those rumors regarding allowances from his dad, former No. 1 overall pick Mychal Thompson. The Golden State Warriors made clear their commitment to a future featuring Thompson when they declined to include him in a trade for Kevin Love.
Now, it's time for the Dubs to put their money where their collective mouth is. Thompson may not be the pure, near-superstar talent that Stephen Curry is, but he's a tremendous player nonetheless.
His deadly shooting stroke would be reason enough to retain him long-term, but it's his low-post skill and burgeoning defensive prowess that make him not only a likely future All-Star, but also a candidate to emerge as basketball's best shooting guard.
As far as the dollar figures are concerned, Thompson's extension should dwarf Curry's four-year, $44 million pact—in part because of the freewheeling financial climate to come but mostly because Thompson, unlike Curry, has been a model of durability through his first three years as a pro.
Prediction: five years, $80 million
Iman Shumpert
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While Thompson's been busy rising up the NBA's ranks since his rookie season, Iman Shumpert has seen his star fade amid injuries and inconsistent play. It's no wonder, then, that the New York Knicks have thus far shown no inclination to extend Shumpert's contract, per ESPN New York's Ian Begley.
That doesn't mean Shump's days in the Big Apple are necessarily numbered. Rather, he'll have to prove to Phil Jackson and head coach Derek Fisher that he can be an asset to the team, both within the triangle offense and, more importantly, as a defender on the wing.
Then again, with J.R. Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. already on the roster, Shumpert will have to work that much harder (and stay that much healthier) just to hang on to his spot in the Knicks' rotation.
Prediction: no extension
Tobias Harris
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Competition could be the bane of Tobias Harris' future with the Orlando Magic. The team is already stacked with young wing-forwards between Maurice Harkless, Andrew Nicholson and rookie Aaron Gordon.
That hasn't deterred Magic general manager Rob Hennigan from conducting contract talks with Harris' agent, per Orlando Magic Daily's Philip Rossman-Reich. Harris, for his part, is coming off a pleasantly productive season in which he averaged 14.6 points, seven rebounds and 1.3 assists.
The problem is, Harris isn't the only one in Orlando who's due for a significant raise, and the other candidate (more on him in a bit) mans a much weaker spot on the Magic's roster. It would make sense, then, if the Magic opted not to extend Harris just yet as they look to sort out their situation at small forward.
Prediction: no extension
Nikola Vucevic
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The mysterious Magic player who might move Harris' extension to the backburner? Nikola Vucevic. According to Orlando Magic Daily, Vucevic's representatives have also been spending significant time in Rob Hennigan's office of late.
Vucevic would seem a better value than Harris at this point, both on his own and within Orlando's context. The Montenegrin big man has proved himself productive in the low post with a mid-range jumper that demands the respect of opposing defenses.
The Magic, for their part, aren't exactly stacked at center. Vucevic aside, Orlando will fill the middle this season with Channing Frye, who fits more comfortable as a stretch 4, and Kyle O'Quinn, who projects more as a solid backup than a bona fide starter.
The rising camp could convince Hennigan and the Magic higher-ups to extend both Vucevic and Harris, but if they can only choose one, Nikola figures to get the nod.
Prediction: four years, $50 million
Tristan Thompson
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Tristan Thompson may well represent the trickiest extension case of the month.
On the one hand, Thompson is a productive player who could prove valuable for the Cleveland Cavaliers. He was a near-double-double machine over the last two seasons (11.7 points, 9.3 rebounds), albeit on some terrible Cavs teams. His scrappiness and ability to clean the glass could come in handy in Cleveland, particularly in a dedicated role as a big body off the bench.
But how much is that really worth to the Cavs? Are they willing to forfeit a chunk of their future financial flexibility to lock up a player whose promise is all but rivaled by his limitations as a player (i.e. his wonky shot, his middling size for his position)?
Not to mention the fact that the Cavs already have two superstars (LeBron James, Kevin Love) who also play power forward.
The caveat here is that Thompson and James share an agent (Rich Paul). Whether James chooses to exercise his leverage within the Cavs' organization to get the Canadian kid a new deal could, in theory, sway the proceedings one way or another.
Prediction: no extension
Who do you think will get extended? Tweet me your picks?
