Ryan Johansen's Deal with Blue Jackets Comes with Pros, Cons for Both Sides

Ryan Johansen wanted a raise, and the Columbus Blue Jackets want to keep control of their potential franchise player at a reasonable rate. Both sides were able to finally reach an agreement, and the Blue Jackets' official Twitter announced that the two sides came to a new deal:

The deal, according to numerous sources including Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, is for three years and $12 million, with an annual cap hit of $4 million flat.

Although this saga is now over, Johansen's deal with the Blue Jackets comes with pros and cons for both parties, so you could say this is a win-now-lose-later move for the Blue Jackets and a lose-now-win-later one for Johansen.

The immediate pro of this deal from the Blue Jackets' standpoint is getting Johansen back under contract and into the lineup. With Nathan Horton sidelined indefinitely, the Blue Jackets couldn't afford to be without their leading scorer from last season. 

Securing a potential consistent 30-goal scorer who is only 22 for the bargain rate of $4 million was masterful on the part of Columbus management...for now. They previously had offered their young star deals that ranged from from $6 million over two years to $46 million over eight years, but it wasn't the deal that Johansen wanted.

Make no mistake: The Blue Jackets' front office surely made it look like Johansen was being greedy, but if Johansen continues to produce like he should, those deals only do favors for his employers.

Any long-term deal would be a bargain for the Blue Jackets because they would be locking Johansen into a deal under a low salary cap. The salary cap for 2014-15 is $69 million, but that figure is expected to grow exponentially in the future.

Moving on to Johansen's perspective, this could be looked at as an initial con that turns into a pro. He was steadfast on avoiding a bridge deal, because he felt his worth to the team was higher that what was being offered.

A deal worth $4 million is fair, and he could end up winning in the end based on how the deal is structured, while the Blue Jackets could lose big. Stephen Whyno of The Canadian Press tweeted a breakdown of the deal, including the future implications from a negotiating standpoint:

As the tweet reads, the deal ends with Johansen commanding a $6 million qualifying offer at age 25. What that means is that in order to keep Johansen's rights, they need to be willing to pay him $6 million. Johansen doesn't have to accept the qualifying offer, but at the very least it sets up a baseline negotiating figure.

However, three seasons from now the salary cap should be drastically higher, and that $6 million figure may not be enough to get the job done. In addition, the Blue Jackets will be feeling the pressure because a one-year deal after this current one would take Johansen to free agency.

Johansen will have six years of experience after his current deal expires, which could set up an arbitration situation that leads to him taking a one-year deal that bridges him to free agency. Depending on how well Johansen has played up to that point, it isn't out of the question that he could get a one-year deal via arbitration that pays him $9 million or more, depending on how high the salary cap is at that point.

It is hard to predict what happens three seasons from now, but the following all are likely givens:

1. Ryan Johansen is a more complete player and proven 30-goal scorer.

2. The salary cap is somewhere between $75 and $85 million (James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail has it at $74.8 million for 2015-16 with a boost from the Rogers Sportsnet TV deal going into effect). 

3. A $6 million salary will be similar to what his $4 million salary is today.

4. Multiple teams will be interested in delivering a Brinks truck to Johansen's home to scoop up the soon-to-be 26-year-old.

There is always the possibility that the Blue Jackets will negotiate an extension before his current deal expires, but don't expect Johansen to bite on a deal that pays him less than market value. It is understandable why the Blue Jackets held firm this time.

Johansen was a talented player with the Portland Winterhawks, but it didn't translate to the NHL. Prior to last season he had only 33 points in 107 games. Last year he proved he could be a special player, but they wanted to make sure last year wasn't a one-hit wonder.

Ultimately, both sides are happy today, but that euphoria could dwindle over the coming seasons. In an ideal world the Blue Jackets would have loved to sign him to a two-year deal, which would give them more leverage in signing him to a new deal.

Both sides will live with this deal for the first two years, but if Johansen explodes offensively, the Blue Jackets would be wise to just sign him to a reasonable extension. They don't want to go through the same process with Johansen a few years from now that the Montreal Canadiens did with P.K. Subban, because it will end up costing them a fortune.

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For those unaware, the Canadiens could have had Suban for five years at $5 million a year, but they bridged him, which set him up for restricted free agency this summer. The Canadiens ended up paying him $72 million, or $9 million a year for eight years.

I bring up Subban because Johansen is practically the same age Subban was when he signed his bridge deal. He will also be 25 at the end of this deal; the age Subban was when he signed his megadeal.

Make no mistake: I am not trying to compare Johansen to Subban, but rather their circumstances as young, talented players looking to sign a deal based on their worth. Johansen's newest deal puts him ahead of the game from where Subban was, but it could be argued that he will have more value in due time.

Based on the fact that Johansen is a skilled 6'3", 202-pound center at 22, there are a ton of reasons to believe that he could command Subban-type money as a polished 25-year-old pivot from Columbus or even more as a UFA at 26.

If he continues to prove he's a 30-plus goal scorer and a 65-to-70-point player, there will be tons of teams willing to write a blank check.

Young centers of Johansen's caliber don't usually make it to unrestricted free agency in their primes. Players of his ilk are usually drafted very early and retained by their teams. It is still unknown what Johansen will be at this point, but consider the following.

It is clear that both teams made a compromise to get this deal done. Columbus opted for protection now to make sure Johansen is the player they think he is, but they leave themselves vulnerable for the next round of negotiations.

Johansen takes a discount now, but his patience and perseverance can be rewarded if he proves he's for real. The pressure may be on Columbus to sign Johansen in the future, but the pressure is now on Johansen to prove his future worth.