Under Conservative Jim Caldwell, Has Matthew Stafford Lost His Edge?

"Don't you ever go conservative on me," Jim Schwartz told Matthew Stafford.

Stafford had just led an improbable 99-yard touchdown drive to beat Washington and break the second-longest losing streak in NFL history.

Stafford's derring-do on that drive, including a wild 3rd-and-long scramble and looping pass to blocking tight end Will Heller, sealed the Lions' first win in 20 games. Much of the giddy Detroit Lions crowd—the smallest, per ESPN, in Ford Field history—refused to leave.

Schwartz, in his first season as a head coach, led his then-team back out on the field to take a curtain call. Lions players waved, blew kisses to and high-fived fans around the stadium.

Most top rookie quarterbacks are exhorted to avoid turnovers at all costs in their first few seasons, but Schwartz knew taming Stafford's wild ways might take the edge off his game. He extracted a promise from Stafford that he wouldn't ever shy away from the big play.

"I won't, coach," Stafford said, per Sports Illustrated's Peter King.

It looked like the beginning of a fantastic partnership between a maverick and a mustang.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

In 2014, Stafford's game is significantly more refined. Coming into the Lions' Week 5 contest against the Buffalo Bills, Stafford was on track for career full-season bests in completion rate, interception rate, average yards per attempt and ESPN Total QBR, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

With his deep-ball crutch, Calvin Johnson, hobbled by ankle injuries, Stafford has been forced to be less aggressive and more resourceful.

Against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Stafford battled a merciless pass rush and a few key bobbles by top targets. He completed 58.1 percent of his passes, per NFL.com, and gained an average of 7.13 yards per attempt. He completed passes to seven different Lions and got another big day out of free-agent signee Golden Tate:

However, six sacks, an interception that bounced off tailback Reggie Bush's hands and just one trip into the red zone led to the Lions' extremely talented, extremely expensive offense mustering just seven points.

It didn't help that place-kicker Alex Henery went 0-of-3 on field goals, including what would have been a 50-yard game-winner with just 26 seconds left. Nevertheless, it's Stafford's job to get the ball in the end zone, and he's paid too handsomely to do it just once.

Not counting the one-play "drives" end of each half, the Lions had 12 possessions and punted seven times—including four three-and-outs. The Bills have a good defense, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, allowing what was a seventh-best 18.8 points per game before facing Detroit.

Still, it isn't good enough to hold one of the NFL's most highly drafted, well-paid offenses to one scoring drive in 12 possessions or one third-down conversion in 11 tries.

The Lions were left needing the one deep ball, the one big play, the one touchdown pass Stafford didn't throw.

Instead, Kyle Orton made that play. In the fourth quarter, he found Marquise Goodwin down the sideline for a 42-yard gain, placing the Bills on the Lions' 4-yard line and setting up the game-tying score. When Bills kicker Dan Carpenter drained a 58-yarder to put the Bills up for good, the happiest man in the stadium was Jim Schwartz.

Schwartz, now the Bills' defensive coordinator, was making his first appearance at Ford Field since leading the Lions to a 1-6 record in the last seven weeks of 2013. When he last left Detroit, per CBS Detroit's Ashley Dunkak, he reportedly cursed at the Lions fans booing him off the field. 

After a fantastic defensive performance in a massive win, Schwartz left the field on the shoulders of his triumphant players, and Lions fans were stunned silent:

The Lions have dropped to 3-2, and Stafford is again at a crossroads.

The Green Bay Packers crushed the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football, erasing the Lions' lead on the NFC North—and their margin for error. The division is likely going to be separated by the thinnest of margins, as it has been for each of the last two years, and the Lions play four division games in their last five weeks.

Johnson is unlikely to be his usual dominant self anytime soon. His only catch of the day ended with a "pretty good whack on his leg," as Lions head coach Jim Caldwell described it, per Josh Katzenstein of the Detroit News.

All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is in the last year of his contract, and per ESPN's Adam Schefter, he already has one foot out the door. His partner in line, Nick Fairley, is also due to be a free agent.

In his postgame press conference, Caldwell said the only thing this loss taught the Lions is that "we won't go 15-1." That's not quite true.

If Caldwell is to succeed where Schwartz failed, Stafford can't play like he did in 2012 and 2013, when he threw 36 interceptions to go with his 49 touchdowns. Today, we learned Stafford also can't play like he's playing now, relying on his defense and kicker to win games for him.

Stafford needs to make game-winning plays without making game-breaking mistakes.