What to Expect from Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers Offense in Week 5
Unless a case of reverse psychology prevails, the San Francisco 49ers offense will flex its ground-oriented muscle in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
You know, such as if the 49ers tell everyone they’re going to run the ball, but then they actually implement a pass-heavy attack because the Chiefs and everyone else expects them to run?
Ok, let’s presume that the prediction-defying football organism that is the 49ers offense in 2014 doesn’t resort to such psychological ploys.
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But don’t go holding your breath just yet.
Memento-like digressions aside, let’s move forward with some more palpable context.
After calling twice as many pass plays as designed runs in Week 2 and Week 3—per Pro Football Focus (subscription required)—Niners offensive coordinator Greg Roman suddenly remembered his most fundamental asset.
| Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | ||
| Colin Kaepernick | 42 | 44 | 37 | |
| Frank Gore | 13 | 6 | 24 | |
| Result | Loss | Loss | Win |
Running back Frank Gore racked up 119 yards on 24 carries in Week 4 versus the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers won.
San Francisco’s all-time leading rusher previously tallied a combined 18 carries for 73 yards against the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers lost both games.
Should we all be the least bit surprised by this correlation?
Since Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2011, the 49ers have amassed a 16-1-1 record when Gore totals at least 20 touches, per Pro-Football-Reference. When they feed the rock to No. 21—and feed him often—the Red and Gold win 94.1 percent of their games.
Add in their 3-0 mark in the postseason when Gore crosses that threshold, and San Francisco’s winning percentage jumps even higher.
Other factors were certainly at play that led to such success. Football, as we know, is a team sport that demands positive input from a host of other players.
But 19-1-1 and 95 percent are two numbers that simply cannot be ignored.
So, when the Chiefs and their No. 19-ranked rushing defense travel to Levi’s Stadium this Sunday, expect a Gore-powered, run-centered game plan for the 49ers.
Let’s break it down.
Bend—and Ready to Break—Chiefs Run D
The phrase, “Bend but not break,” often falls into the category of cliched descriptor when applied to defensive football.
Journalism professors and sports editors would generally advise against its usage.
So let’s apply a little cosmetic alteration and invoke, “Bend and ready to break,” for this analysis of Kansas City’s run defense.
The Chiefs have surrendered 116.5 yards rushing per game at a fourth-worst 5.0-yard clip. That includes a bottom-four ranking in gains of 20 or more yards allowed (three).
Where the “ready to break” comes into play is the Chiefs’ unsustainable mark of zero touchdowns given up on the ground.
NFL defenses, no matter how stout they are against the run, will eventually break in the red zone or near the goal line.
It’s really just a matter of time when there are 16 games' worth of opportunities.
To wit, four of the top-five run units this year have already coughed up at least one rushing score. The fourth-ranked Arizona Cardinals, who finished No. 1 overall in 2013, surrendered five touchdowns last season and another two thus far in 2014.
The Bob Sutton-coordinated Chiefs defense, for its part, will do the same in Week 5.
The 49ers offensive linemen finally found their groove as run-blockers against the Eagles.
In particular, the mauling interior duo of left guard Mike Iupati and center Daniel Kilgore was consistently effective in winning the trenches. These two will use that performance as a platform to generate enough push against massive nose tackle Dontari Poe.
Iupati’s second-ranked and Kilgore’s top-seven grades in run blocking will overcome Poe’s top-20 score—per Pro Football Focus—against opposing rushers.
And Gore, of course, is the one who will utilize his patented low-to-the-ground running style and navigate his way into the end zone for the second time this season.
Pass-Rush Neutralizer
Unlike their work in the run game, the 49ers offensive linemen have not held their ground in another crucial area.
Pass-blocking.
They have allowed 10 sacks through the first four weeks. That ranks fourth most in the NFL.
Every member of this group has earned a negative grade from Pro Football Focus. And the one guy who hasn’t—backup right tackle Jonathan Martin—has given up three sacks.
It’s imperative that Anthony Davis (knee) returns this week and, if not, for Joe Staley and Co. to elevate their play in protecting Colin Kaepernick.
Fortunately, doing so will require a piggyback of sorts off something with which they already excel—paving the way for No. 21.
Moving the pile up front and establishing a consistent Gore-led attack will keep the Chiefs’ eager sack artists honest.
Or, as the title denotes, it will neutralize their upper-echelon pass rush.
Kansas City has accumulated 12 sacks this season. Elite edge-rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali have contributed eight takedowns toward that second-ranked total, not to mention 17 of the team’s additional 46 quarterback pressures.
Aside from Staley and Martin picking up the pace at left and right tackle, Gore must mitigate the Chiefs’ quarterback-hitting intentions via steady interior rushes.
The 49ers will accomplish this in a couple of ways.
Roman will first put the ball in Gore’s hands on early downs—and do so consistently.
This will prevent Houston and Hali from continually pinning their ears back and pursuing Kaepernick. A Gore-powered offensive rhythm will indeed disrupt the Chiefs’ outside pressure.
A second way entails Kaepernick handing off to Gore from shotgun.
Roman will force the Chiefs into their nickel personnel by calling multi-receiver sets. The 49ers can then counteract Sutton’s exotic blitzing tendencies against passing formations with misdirection-based schemes of their own.
It will also provide Gore with a bit more room to operate without the 6’3’’, 346-pound Poe clogging the middle.
And with that, let’s put a bow on this discussion with the reason why this approach will ultimately aid San Francisco the most.
Defensive Counterbalance Equals Offensive Catalyst
Last week’s win over Philadelphia showed that the 49ers defense can overcome the loss of all-world linebackers NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith.
One-game sample or not, its dominant performance against a top-two scoring offense alleviated the concerns most outsiders harbored for this temporarily depleted unit.
The Week 4 victory also underscored why San Francisco cannot generate enough offensive production without maintaining its gridiron identity.
And that’s pounding the rock to the most underrated player of his generation—Mr. Frank Gore.
Gore neutralizes opposing defenses, catalyzes the 49ers offense and, in the end, puts notches in the win column for the Red and Gold.
He isn’t flashy or newsworthy or SportsCenter quality. But he gets it done on Sundays when given the chance.
By helping eliminate the Chiefs’ killer pass rush, he will establish offensive rhythm, move the chains and provide his quarterback with an opportunity to flourish.
Kaepernick, despite not passing the eye test in many instances this season, has actually delivered the ball precisely and where only his receiver can catch it in quite a few others.
Pro Football Focus’ quarterback accuracy percentage takes into account those “factors that hurt the quarterback’s completion percentage but don’t help show how accurate they are” on the field.
These include dropped passes, throw-aways, spiked balls, etc.
Kap, for his part, ranks an impressive No. 4 overall with an 80.7 completion rate.
Where he hasn’t succeeded, however, is in the deep passing game. But that’s also because he just hasn’t had many opportunities.
He owns PFF’s fifth-best accuracy percentage on passes of 20 or more yards. Yet he’s only had 16 attempts, which rank as seventh fewest this year.
And this is where No. 21 enters the picture.
Expect Roman to establish Gore early and often to open up play-action windows for Kaepernick. He will afford Kap more than just 19.7 percent of his dropbacks—or 29 total chances in 2014—to utilize his rocket arm and beat Kansas City over the top.
Gore’s steady presence will help bring safeties Husain Abdullah and Ron Parker down in the box, thereby freeing up Niners receivers with one-on-one matchups.
The Chiefs have surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns in coverage while tallying the third-fewest interceptions.
They don’t bend—see: No. 8 ranking in total yards allowed—but they certainly break.
With Gore doing his thing and Kap doing his, the 49ers will move to 2-1 at Levi’s Stadium and 3-2 on the season.
They square off with the St. Louis Rams on Monday Night Football next week.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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